Tag: Delaware elections 2014
El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You!
The tough races are really tough, the easy races are really easy. I know I’m not running the table, but I don’t know where I’ll falter. I just know that I will. If there’s a unifying theme, I think it’s that D’s will struggle in Delaware more than usual, which is exactly what I expect to happen nationwide. Hope I’m wrong. These predictions are also going up a week out, and there’s plenty of movement in some of the races.
With that depressing, but not hopeless, forecast out of the way, here we go:
United States Senate: Chris Coons over Kevin Wade, 58-40%, with Andrew Groff of the Green Party at 2%. I’ll be among the 2 percenters.
US Representative: This provides the true measure of how many people will vote Republican no matter what. Does Rose Izzo get over 30%? I’m going Carney 67%, Izzo 29%, with the Green and Libertarian candidates maybe getting 4%. For me, it’ll be August in November.
Attorney General: Matt Denn will win, does he break 60%?
The Delaware GOP Is Waiting for What?
The NJ had an article in Tuesday’s paper with this misleading title: Republicans wait as O’Donnell weighs another campaign. That title gives you the impression that there is something weighty and momentous going on here — that party leadership is somehow deferring to their local wingnut welfare grifter to give her first shot at running for the U.S. Senate against Chris Coons.
Election 2014: Delaware’s Most Vulnerable Incumbents
I’m El Somnambulo, and I’m a listaholic.
Admit it: So are you.
Bearing in mind that incumbents need viable challengers in order to be vulnerable, here is a list of those with at least reason to be worried:
State Auditor Tom Wagner: A do-nothing R in an increasingly D state. Here’s the problem. If a do-nothing R is replaced by a do-nothing D, does it really make any difference? No doubt it does to Tom Wagner. But not to Patrick Harker or Lonnie George. Which is my point. And the problem.
State Treasurer Chip Flowers: While the R’s talk hopefully, and, IMHO, delusionally, about defeating him, I suspect that any real challenge would come from the Democrats. We’ll likely know in 6 months or so whether there will be a party-backed challenger. We might as well get used to Flowers being a polarizing figure by choice. Which would be fine if it was principle, not ego, driving that train.
State Senator Greg Lavelle (4th SD): Got 50.8% against Michael Katz. Probably less vulnerable this time, but he’s got two more years of anti-gay and pro-gun votes on his record. Will a credible challenger emerge?
I know that people expect me to have Ernesto Lopez on this list, but I don’t see him as particularly vulnerable. Feel free to make a case.
More inside….
Recent Comments