2009 Elections

This weekend's dramatic turn of events up in NY-23 means that the teabaggers bagged a real scalp from the establishment Republicans and no matter the outcome, the Republican Party (at least the part that is serious about governing) has a real problem on its hands. The media will be repeating that this election is a referendum on Obama (while the only nationalized election is NY23) even though Obama is holding his own with approval ratings pretty close to his election winning numbers and these other races haven't been nationalized in the way NY 23 has been.

So next Tuesday there are multiple off-year elections that people are watching. We're launching this thread early so you can spend the weekend debating and working out your selections of the outcomes of Tuesday's races. On Monday AM we'll put up another thread where you can make your FINAL predictions complete with winning spreads. Whoever gets the most wins correct, with the closest guess to the winning spread and closest guess to the Bonus Question wins a delightful prize.

No matter how they are spun, rerun and overdone, the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are not national referenda. Even if the expected occurs -- and Republican Bob McDonnell…