Democrats will miss him when he’s gone, and should appreciate her while she’s here, says Martin Longman:
I expected Democrats to begin expressing much higher approval numbers for Obama once they were forced to really think about Clinton or Sanders in the White House, but the trend is even stronger with independents who basically hate their choices in this election cycle:
Democrats have slowly looked at Obama more favorably since the beginning of 2015, but independents have begun to look at Obama much more favorably. After a sharp slide following his reelection, independents turned their opinions of Obama around at the beginning of 2014. Over the past year, that’s escalated. And since ratings from Democrats and Republicans are more stable, that shift by independents moves the needle a lot.
People don’t always realize that Obama’s approval numbers have been held down by the ambivalence of a lot of Democrats. The same is happening now to a much greater degree to Hillary Clinton. She won’t really have to do anything to see her negatives decline once the Democrats unite around her as the only chance of keeping Donald Trump away from the nuclear codes. If independents follow suit, which they will if they campaign is waged competently, she won’t be laboring under historically high negatives by the time people start voting.
As I said yesterday, Democrats want to fall in love with their candidates, while Republicans want to fall in line. You are seeing that now with all the Republicans falling in line behind Trump. And you will see Hillary’s numbers rise when Democrats unite. The story of the Summer is set: The Resurrection of Hillary.
This is one of the most important stories of the year. Attorney General Matt Denn admitted that the main reason why no officers were charged in the shooting death of Jeremy McDole was b/c the law enabling police to shoot first and face no consequences is so broadly written that it’s virtually impossible to charge police in any shooting. From the News-Journal article:
Denn’s decision didn’t rest solely on the facts of the case. Hamstringing the AG’s efforts was that Jeremy “Bam” McDole was killed in Delaware, a state that essentially immunizes law enforcement officers from criminal responsibility when they use deadly force in response to a perceived threat.
Here, a police officer doesn’t have to prove the use of deadly force was “actually necessary to protect the officer against death or serious physical injury,” according to the recent state Department of Justice report. “All (the officer) must show is that he believed that to be the case at the time that he used deadly force, whether that belief was reasonable or unreasonable.”
So, am I missing anything here? If an officer states that they ‘believed’ there was a threat, even if no other reasonable person would believe such a thing, he can shoot at will and w/o fear of consequence.
BY JOHN-CLARK LEVIN
“I don’t have a TV!”
“I never eat meat!”
“I walk ten miles a day!”
“My diet is making me lose a lot of weight!”
“I use my own waste to grow food!”
“My children aren’t vaccinated!”
“I have a very small carbon footprint!”
“I don’t vote — the system is too corrupt!”
In this week’s address, President Obama discussed one of the single most important steps to help grow middle-class wages – expanding the number of workers who are eligible for the overtime that they have earned.
In his weekly message, Governor Markell highlights Delaware’s commitment to ensuring students have the skills and education they need to thrive in the new economy.
We have a Democratic Primary in the 9th RD.
OK, kids, some of you (well, LG) will remember that this was the district that Rebecca Walker vacated after the filing deadline in 2014, meaning that the voters didn’t get to pick the D nominee. R Kevin Hensley defeated D appointee and Walker choice Jason Hortiz, a former R candidate for Clerk of the Peace, 3290-2950 in the 2014 General Election. You may also remember that, back in 2010, Walker, who had lost to Dick Cathcart back in 2008, told the RD committee that she wasn’t running. Into the breach stepped one Richard Griffiths, who was endorsed by the committee. Then Cathcart ‘retired’, after his dirty dealings at Del-State were revealed, and Walker jumped back in. She defeated Griffiths handily in the primary, 970-258, and edged out John Marino in the general, 5583-5301. Then, of course, she got a job where she can help the police cover up evidence that police might, just might, have been engaged in wrongdoing. (Have I mentioned lately just how corrupt and incestuous the politicians in this state are? Oh, and did I mention that her husband is an ex-cop?)
But, I digress. Richard Griffiths has filed to run in the 9th, and he has a primary opponent, one Monique Johns. All I’ve got for Griffiths is his 2010 announcement notice. Johns appears to be, uh, the wife (‘First Lady’) to a Bible Fellowship pastor. I know that Liberal Geek was real high on Griffiths back in 2010, can you fill us in on what’s going on, Big Guy? Can a D knock off Hensley this year?
Matt Taibbi asks if this is the end for Republicans: “If this isn’t the end for the Republican Party, it’ll be a shame. They dominated American political life for 50 years and were never anything but monsters. They bred in their voters the incredible attitude that Republicans were the only people within our borders who raised children, loved their country, died in battle or paid taxes. They even sullied the word ‘American’ by insisting they were the only real ones. They preferred Lubbock to Paris, and their idea of an intellectual was Newt Gingrich. Their leaders, from Ralph Reed to Bill Frist to Tom DeLay to Rick Santorum to Romney and Ryan, were an interminable assembly line of shrieking, witch-hunting celibates, all with the same haircut – the kind of people who thought Iran-Contra was nothing, but would grind the affairs of state to a halt over a blow job or Terri Schiavo’s feeding tube.”
“A century ago, the small-town American was Gary Cooper: tough, silent, upright and confident. The modern Republican Party changed that person into a haranguing neurotic who couldn’t make it through a dinner without quizzing you about your politics. They destroyed the American character. No hell is hot enough for them. And when Trump came along, they rolled over like the weaklings they’ve always been, bowing more or less instantly to his parodic show of strength.”
I encourage everyone, Berniacs and Clintonistas alike, to read this piece by The Slot titled “We called up Bernie fans Who Threatened Dem State Chair and Asked Them to Explain Themselves.” You all know me, know that I am fervently not a Bernie supporter, and you know that I have grown to despise some of the more vehement and younger Bernie supporter. And even I left reading that article feeling sympathy for them!!! Goddamnit. LOL.
The long and short of it is that the Bernie supporters who made death threats against various Democratic Party officials are just dumb, naive kids. This is their first election, and they feel like if Bernie doesn’t win it is the end of all things. I remember feeling that way once. They were frustrated and wanted to make a statement. They way they chose to make that statement was completely unacceptable, and some of them recognize that.
I see valued commenters Dave falling into a kind of cognitive trap. He seems to think that that Nevada was all about people (Bernie and Hillary), and their supporters. It is nothing of the sort. Nevada is part of an ongoing push-back against the out and out bullshit that has dominated capitalism (and by extension our politics) for the last 30 or so years.
In part, I blame myself for Dave’s confusion. When I said unruly Democrats would come home when “Warren is announced as VP” I was using a sort of shorthand for the Clinton campaign recognizing that there is a cancer.
Consider your take on the economy like your take on climate change. The politics of climate change are binary. You believe is it real or you don’t. Similarly, you believe capitalism in trouble or you don’t. The question yet to be settled is – what side of the issue is the Democratic Party on? If the Clinton Campaign can somehow show that they understand that climate change (e.g. rigged economy) is real… I see all Democrats coming home. If the Clinton campaign, and the Democratic Party Apparatchiks, can’t get over that hill, I see chaos ahead.
If the Democratic Party is to be successful in November, it is imperative that all state parties treat our campaign supporters with fairness and the respect that they have earned. I am happy to say that has been the case at state conventions in Maine, Alaska, Colorado and Hawaii where good discussions were held and democratic decisions were reached. Unfortunately, that was not the case at the Nevada convention.
I need our readers to enlighten me on two roll calls that took place yesterday: 1. HB 330 (Heffernan), which unanimously passed the House, was defeated in the Senate. 7 Y, 13 N, 1 NV. That’s rare, especially with both houses in control of the D’s. And this vote didn’t reflect a partisan split. Here’s […]
Last night Hillary Clinton won Kentucky by 1 point, splitting the delegates at 27 a piece in a state demographically favored for Sanders, and she did much better than expected in Oregon, losing to Sanders by only an 8 point margin, 54-46, when the Sanders campaign was expecting a 30-40 point victory more in line with their performance in the Washington state caucus. In Oregon, Sanders wins 28 delegates to Clinton’s 24, so he gains a net total of 4 on the night.
Clinton is now 92 delegates away from clinching the nomination. Given the upcoming slate of primaries and the expected performances by the candidates in them, Hillary will likely clinch the nomination the second polls close in New Jersey and she is declared the projected winner, before we even get to California.
She will score landslides in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and New Jersey. She will likely get 7 of the Virgin Island’s 12 delegates. She will likely get 40 of Puerto Rico’s 67 delegates (both results based on a conservative estimate of a Hillary 60-40 win in both). In New Jersey, early models of the vote show a landslide for Hillary.
New Jersey – We haven't seem demographics like this since Maryland. Blowout. Clinton 64% – Sanders 36%. pic.twitter.com/3Yrdsd8lHE
— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) May 18, 2016
Assuming a 64% win in NJ, Hillary will win 97 of the state’s 142 delegates. And that puts her over the top at 8 pm on June 7. Hillary should plan on declaring victory that night. Concerns for the feelings of Sanders supporters, and for Sanders himself, after the unpleasantness of the last few days and Sander’s tantrum last night, are over. Sanders alone is responsible for lying to his supporters by suggesting that the primary has been stolen. Sanders alone is responsible for lying to his supporters by suggesting that he can win the nomination. Sanders alone is responsible for talking his supporters down from the violence and outright terroristic and misogynist behavior they have engaged in over the last few days. He will concede to Hillary without precondition or concession in mid June like Hillary did in 2008. And then we will talk about reforms to the primary process in 2020 and beyond, where we eliminate caucuses, closed primaries and super delegates. Then we will talk about the platform. But not before.
Quick blurb because I’m still at Christina Board meeting, but Brandywine has passed their referenda by close to a four thousand vote margin!
9,612 FOR – 5,780 against.
BSD also smashed Christina’s total turnout (13,395) by almost 2,000 votes: 15,392 total votes!
Donald Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns could be seen as a process issue, perhaps even a vetting question so important that it’s “disqualifying,” as Mitt Romney has called it. But perhaps it could be something more than that. It might be the thin end of the wedge that opens up a powerful theme against the self-professed billionaire: that Trump is a total fraud.
Trump has repeatedly refused to publish his tax returns, and repeatedly lied about his intention to do so. He promised five years ago to release his returns when President Obama released his birth certificate, and reneged. He promised to release them in February 2015; again promised to do so last fall and then in January, then backed off on the grounds that he was under an IRS audit, an argument tax experts have unanimously dismissed as nonsensical. Now he insists there’s “nothing to learn from them.”
As many financial reporters have speculated over the years, based on whatever fragmentary information Trump has provided, he almost certainly has far less money than he claims. A reporter who has dug into the question estimates Trump’s actual worth at $150–250 million; Trump claims to be worth $10 billion, which is at least 40 times the journalist’s estimate. The reality of Trump’s business career is that he is not so much a great businessman but somebody who has figured out how to make money by convincing people that he is one. [...] The particulars of his day-to-day message, to the extent he has one, barely matter. His entire appeal rests on the bedrock of his identity as a successful entrepreneur. The vast wealth Trump claims to have amassed allows him to supposedly fund his own campaign, escaping the influence of fundraisers who control his opponents. His alleged deal-making skill explains why he will be able to improve every trade deal, solve every legislative impasse, and finesse every diplomatic conflict. Trump’s endlessly repeated proposition is that he will take the skills that made him so rich and generously use them to make the country rich. Without that, he’s just a dumber version of Pat Buchanan.
I’m back from Oregon, and I see that I didn’t miss much.
The General Assembly is currently in collective thumbs-twiddling mode. I now understand why they took a week off recently. It’s not like they have nothing to address (like minimum wage), it’s just that they’ve chosen not to address much of consequence. Cowardice in an election year, who’dathunkit?
Can we just talk about minimum wage? Please? While places across the country are passing $15 an hour minimum, idiot/legislators like Andria Bennett and Quin Johnson turn up their noses at a far less ambitious proposal by accepting Chamber talking points w/o even looking on their own at how higher minimum wages have impacted communities that have implemented them. Plus, if one of them should ‘falter’ and eventually go against the Chamber, there is always the no-longer-running-for-Congress business lackey Bryon Short waiting to deep-six the proposal. When it comes to minimum wage, Delawareans did better when the R’s controlled the House than they do now.
As to the notion of raising taxes on Delaware’s wealthiest, I wrote about this last year. If it wasn’t even gonna be considered in an off-year (thanks, Pete), it certainly isn’t gonna be passed in an election year. The General Assembly made the decision to give more to the 1%, hence the corporate bailouts that were rushed through in January. More and better Democrats are few and far between in Dover.
Governor Democrats – John Carney. This is a snooze. Carney has been the consummate company man. His reward is this cakewalk election. So he’ll be the next up to “keep Delaware competitive” by cutting taxes and basically doing whatever the Chamber of commerce tells him to do. Republicans – Colin Bonini, Lacey Lafferty. Less boring […]