“Hillary Clinton is dispatching at least 150 people from her campaign headquarters in Brooklyn Heights to New Hampshire for an all-hands-on-deck effort here in advance of the Democratic primary on Tuesday,” BuzzFeed reports.
Politico: “The feeling at Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters these days isn’t about pulling off an upset — it’s about closing the gap, and halting Sanders’ momentum by denying him an easy win in a state that should be a cakewalk. In some respects New Hampshire is the only state where Team Clinton can flip the inevitability script — with Sanders positioned as the favorite with lots to lose.”
Ted Cruz really is an odious weasel.He goosed his ground game by convincing Carson supports that their guy had thrown in the towel. You can only use that play in a caucus state, so he did and you can’t argue with the results. [And by the way, has anyone else noticed that Cruz' campaign manger looks like the bad guy from the Smurfs? Does anyone doubt that this guy could have brazenly lying in his toolbox?]
So what happens now?
I see Trump’s white nationalist partisans are all in, so Trump could keep it going for a while. But even as loud as they are, the grizzled 20% of Republicans who like Trump are still 20% of Republicans. Rubio appears to be the new establishment pick, which makes him the party’s ebola monkey from the tea party perspective. So can Cruz, the odious weasel, end up being the guy who unites the GOP? I think it is possible. But, ultimately, nobody knows jack shit. John Kasich, the 69th Governor of Ohio, could catch fire. Literally… Michel Jackson style, during the taping of a Pepsi Cola ad. We simply don’t know. (I added the DL Fantasy pool update below)
According to a reliable source… Huckabee est fini. Good riddance. His tired form of religious extremism was so 2008…lacking in extremity and naked racism. Anyway… with Bush and Fiorina still gasping and flapping around like fish on a dock, AQC overtakes Prop Joe for 5th place. With 43 days since Graham quit, that means 43 […]
Kudos to Wilmington City Councilman Bud Freel:
A handful of contracts that Mayor Dennis P. Williams brought to the City Council for approval have sat untouched for more than a month as Finance Committee Chairman Bud Freel wages a silent protest against the mayor. Freel has refused to bring three agreements to the full council for a final vote until Williams provides members of the state General Assembly with information about how the police department deploys officers.
The Legislature’s Joint Finance Committee on Dec. 2 approved putting $1.5 million toward fighting Wilmington crime, but said the money would not be released until the police department discloses the number of officers on patrol and how they are used. Legislators said they included the stipulation because of concerns the department is not effectively using current resources. [...]
Williams has not responded to state lawmakers, saying he was offended by the stipulation.
Mayor Dennis P. Williams has something to hide: either his incompetence or something more sinister. Hence his refusal to turn over the data. It was long past time someone, anyone, on the Wilmington Council revolted. I say shut down the entire city until Williams relents. And then, come November, Wilmington voters need to wipe the city clean of all of most of elected officials, starting with Williams and his entire cabal.
Hear me out. This is exciting.
The reason? The U. S. Supreme Court deemed unconstitutional part of a Florida statute that grants exclusively to judges the right to determine a sentence of death in capital cases.
Guess what? Delaware has the exact same provision in its statute. The irony is that it didn’t used to be that way. No, AG Jane Brady, Sen. Tom Sharp, Sen. Jim Vaughn and others demagogued the sheep in Dover into taking the power away from juries and giving it to judges. Why? ‘Coddling criminals’, blah blah blah. How great would it be if they ended up sowing the seeds for death penalty repeal?
I’m not a lawyer, but I don’t see how Delaware’s statute can be constitutional if Florida’s is not.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Only the Delaware General Assembly can change the statute. Come inside to see why that’s important….
Jason330 has come out for Sanders, though he is happy to vote for each candidate in the end, especially if the primary produces a battle tested Hillary Clinton. I, as you know, am a strong supporter of Hillary Clinton and I am not going to change my mind on that nor apologize for it. I believe Bernie Sanders would fail as our nominee, leading us to a Mondale or Dukakis-style defeat. And if you don’t see that possibility, and the risk inherent in nominating someone who pledges to raise taxes on the middle class, not the wealthy, but the middle class, by 20%, then you are a, what is the term Jason used to describe me, oh yes, a puerile irredeemable naive misanthrope. It’s like you have learned nothing at all about Republicans and Independents and even Democrats your entire life. I mean, the commercials write themselves.
And the worst part is Bernie Sanders has pledged that he will be another Michael Dukakis and John Kerry in that he will not fight back with negative campaigning against the Republicans to defend himself. Fuck that. I’ll go with the fighting Clinton.
I will of course support and vote for him if he is our nominee, if only because to do otherwise will make me responsible for whatever Republican wins, but that does not change the fact that the Democratic Party will be wiped out in Congress and every where else, not that Bernie cares, since he is not a Democrat nor does he support any Democratic candidates with his campaign money.
So game on. The Battle is joined.
Now let’s get back to the politics of it. Hillary got the win, albeit a close one, but she will no doubt take it and be happy. And Clinton supporters should be happy, and Bernie supporters should be concerned. Why? Because the worst case scenario for her campaign and the best case scenario for the Sanders campaign occurred in that the turnout for Sanders was higher than even the Sanders campaign expected, and Hillary still won. She took the punch and kept standing.
Now Bernie faces a no win situation in New Hampshire. Current polls have his lead there anywhere from 15-30 points. He better win by 20-30 points to have his win deemed a win. In fact, I am not sure he should even be campaigning in New Hampshire right now. He should be in South Carolina and Nevada. Because what happens if Hillary gains on him in New Hampshire to finish strong there, losing by 5 instead of 30? It means she will have “won” the New Hampshire primary in terms of momentum. And then she will go steamrolling into Nevada and South Carolina. Bernie needs to be there now to see if he can make inroads in states where Hillary is leading by significant margins, to show that he can win where white progressives are not 90% of the vote.
I’ve been saying I’m a spectator for a while and would be happy with whoever the Dems pick. While that is true, it is pretty wishy-washy. Sanders embodies close to everything I’ve been looking for in a Presidential candidate, so my fence sitting is really mere cowardice. So here is my quick list of reasons […]
Trump, Cruz and Rubio were managing the expectations game going into tonight’s caucuses. We also have tells from the candidates themselves about how the campaign is going. Ed Kilgore says the Clinton campaign reeks of confidence. Margaret Hartmann on the Bernie Sanders campaign:
Over the weekend, Sanders began running a new ad in Iowa that hints Clinton is too influenced by Wall Street. And after famously declaring, “The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails,” at October’s debate, he took a different stance when Jake Tapper raised the issue on CNN’s State of the Union. “I think this is a very serious issue,” Sanders said. “I think there is a legal process right now taking place.”
In some ways Clinton and Sanders have switched tactics in the final days before voting in Iowa. As New York’s Ed Kilgore reported, a confident Clinton tried to fire up supporters by discussing a raft of progressive policy proposals on Sunday in Des Moines. Meanwhile, the final Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics poll showed Clinton three points ahead of Sanders in Iowa, and the Washington Post reports that a “visibly agitated” Sanders complained about Clinton hitting him on gun control and reproductive rights. “Those are inaccuracies, and we can do better than that,” he said. “Secretary Clinton and I have differences of opinion. Let’s debate those differences of opinion, but let’s not go around distorting a record that I am very proud of.”
That tells of a campaign that is behind.
It is also, recyled Iowa post day…
…if aliens descended in their spacecraft and asked us why we let 200,000 morons in the middle of fucking nowhere have veto power over who runs for President of the most important country in the world our only possible answer would be, “Because we are dummies.”
It is all still true.
Yesterday, the Gold Standard Iowa poll by Anne Selzer was released. As expected, it finds Clinton and Trump ahead, though they find that Trump’s lead is beatable whereas other polls showed him with a larger more insurmountable lead.
Here are some interesting points from the cross tabs and internals of the poll: “Another sign of a possible cliffhanger Monday night: Although just 9% of likely GOP caucusgoers haven’t yet made a choice, they’re part of the 45% who could be persuaded to change their minds in the final hours.”
As has been the case all along, Sanders has a robust lead among first-time Caucus-goers, but they represent only about a third of likely participants, as compared to 60 percent when Barack Obama beat Clinton in 2008 via a huge turnout. And while Sanders’s base includes both men and women under 30, Clinton has a better than 2-to-1 lead among seniors — still the most likely voters to show up Monday night — and desire for a woman to become president seems more intense than a passion for the kind of political revolution Sanders promises.
Among Republicans, the Iowa Poll confirms the conventional wisdom that Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz; he leads Cruz 28 to 23 percent, reversing a 25 to 22 percent Cruz lead in the last Selzer poll. But the bit of conventional wisdom passionately hoped for by many establishment Republicans — a Marco Rubio surge past Cruz into second place — just ain’t happening. He’s at 15 percent, with no particular signs of momentum, unless you believe Selzer missed some sort of very late, debate-driven change (this poll was still in the field yesterday, though).
An interesting thing is happening: President Obama’s poll numbers are rising. The Washington Post reported this week:
President Obama’s job-approval rating has rebounded into positive territory, boosted by improving assessments of his handling of the nation’s economy since 2012 and thawing ratings on handling the terrorist threat, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Fifty percent of Americans approve of Obama’s overall job performance in the new poll, similar to 51 percent in October. While barely positive, Obama’s marks are up slightly from 45 and 46 percent in the past two months…. Fully 50 percent approve of his handling of the economy, while 46 percent disapprove, the best margin in Post-ABC polls since 2009.
In late January of 2008, President Bush’s approving rating was in the high 20’s to low thirties. In fact, President Obama’s approval rating is practically identical to that of Ronald Reagan at this stage of his Presidency. Reagan was at 47% approval in late January, compared to Obama’s 48%, according to Gallup. Nate Silver added yesterday that the latest RealClearPolitics average shows the president’s support reaching its highest point since June 2013. It could be a temporary blip, of course, but Nate added, “Maybe Obama looks a little better in comparison to the unpopular set of candidates they’ve been seeing and hearing so much from lately.”
In this week’s address, the President discussed his plan to give all students across the country the chance to learn computer science (CS) in school.
In his weekly message, Governor Markell unveiled a Fiscal Year 2017 state budget that invests in stronger schools and workforce training, innovation and infrastructure to spur economic growth, better health and a high quality of life.
This week, the House Administration Committee released House Bill 165, sponsored by Rep. Debra Heffernan, which would make full-time State of Delaware employees who have at least one year of employment eligible for 12 weeks of paid maternity and paternity leave.
Politics 101 – Find out what they want, and don’t give it to them until they give you something you want.
Terry McAuliffe demonstrates how to deal with Republicans: Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) will announce on Friday a deal with Republican lawmakers that will reinstate Virginia’s policy of recognizing concealed carry licenses from most states,…The compromise legislation would allow the state to take guns away from individuals under a two-year protective order for domestic violence, […]
Earlier today I asked Kevin O. to stop turning Delaware Dem’s death penalty post into an abortion post. My comment was brief, but I should have taken the time to explain that his comments were off topic and that he was free to post his thoughts on an open thread. For that, I apologize. Kevin […]
Aaron Blake uses data from the latest WaPo/ABC poll to say that the electorate really isn’t all that angry.
Donald Trump is angry. Bernie Sanders is angry. And Americans think their neighbors are very angry, too.
Except that they’re simply not — or at least, not abnormally angry. Despite the rise of two candidates who have embraced the idea of anger, our country simply isn’t unusually angry about how things are going in Washington
I think this race is going to be very boring. It is going to be a status quo election. Hillary and Trump will quickly win their nominations, and we will be “entertained” by Trump all year long, and then Hillary will win in a devastating landslide that will destroy the Republican Party for a few generations.
Kathleen McGuiness is for real. Except for that whole residency thingy. BTW, turns out she moved out to Park Slope b/c a couple of her kids are competitive snowboarders. Yes, she raised a lot of money. What really surprised me is that almost all of the money comes from Delaware. Pretty much every D in Sussex County with money has ponied up. Guess there are more D’s with money in Sussex County than I thought. Bethany Hall-Long has raised a lot of $$’s as well. Ciro Poppiti has enough money to be competitive. Sherry Dorsey Walker, Greg Fuller, and Brad Eaby don’t.
Trinidad Navarro better get his ass in gear. Those who deal with the insurance commissioner’s office have apparently resigned themselves to, or more likely, fallen in love with the idea of, Incompetent Karen Weldin Stewart serving as Insurance Commissioner. He’s only raised $11K? Vs. $83K?
It is in these moments that people who are novices or who are inexperienced in the way of politics, and the long arc of history get frustrated and often walk away. For example, I saw one commenter on Facebook blame the Democrats in the General Assembly for the vote. That person is probably the same type of person who blames President Obama for Republican obstruction. And he, and those like him, need some education on how long and involved a process politics and change is. If you are getting into politics for instant gratification and neverending victories, you will be bitterly disappointed.
Yesterday, the defeat of the Senate Bill 40, which would have repealed the death penalty, by an official vote of 16-23-2, was not a defeat. It was a victory when you look at change and politics from a longer view, or a higher altitude. Over the course of three years, we went from no bill for repeal even being considered, to having it be introduced, pass through the Senate, and die in the House Judiciary Committee, to having it pass the Senate again, and get debated and voted on on the House floor.
Yesterday was a step forward. To be sure, the vast majority of the Democratic caucus voted for the repeal of the death penalty. Step back and think about that for a second, while looking at this vote roster (I have excluded the Republicans voting no, because they are irrelevant to this conversation, well, are irrelevant to most things really).