There’s no magic to Trump’s political showmanship. The magic we saw through the Spring was a unique bond, a sort of mindmeld of white backlash and derp Trump built on an inspired intuition into the mind of the base of the Republican party. Provocation and offense didn’t hurt Trump because … he was preaching to an audience that yearned for both as positive goods. Campaigning in front of a general election audience today it’s all working quite differently. Over the last two days I heard report after report from our team on Capitol Hill about Senators who were refusing to answer questions about Trump, simply walking away when asked about him, or in a growing number of cases, after his harrowing and unhinged speech on Monday, openly attacking him. [...]
A month ago Republican elected officials were unenthusiastically but resolutely rallying around Trump. Since then they’ve slowly been reduced to a public and political version of a family dealing with a hopeless addict or a degenerate gambler. They keep saying, insisting he’ll change, only to have him provide more evidence he can’t, won’t and has no intention to. Their very indulgence seems to prompt more unbridled behavior.
The disgraceful way Trump handled the hours after the Orlando atrocity seems to have confirmed for many Republicans that Trump will never change or pivot or whatever other phrase we’re now using. It’s not an act. It’s him. How this couldn’t have been clear months ago is a topic for the psychology of denial and wishful thinking. But now it seems clear. [...]
The question is how long this can last. Pretty much daily, major Republican leaders don’t just disagree with Trump but denounce him in pretty round terms, even as they remain at least nominal endorsers of his candidacy and accept him as the leader of their party. That is entirely unprecedented in modern American political history.
It doesn’t seem sustainable.
I track the futures trading markets rather than polls because people are betting on outcomes with real money, and therefor stand to make (or lose) real money. That clears out the fanboys and pretenders. Of the predicting markets, I tend to look at IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) because they have the history and larger volume of trades. So when I see “Dem to win White House” closing at $0.75, I’m impressed. [$0.75 means that people are buying and trading "Futures Contracts" called "Dem to win White House" for $0.75. If they hold onto them, those contracts will pay off $1.00 if/when that outcome happens. The more likely that outcome becomes, the close the trading price gets to $1.00]
As a point of comparison, at on this day in 2008, “Dem to win White House” closed at $0.60.
Delaware’s Tom Carper joined 39 Dem Senators in supporting Chris Murphy’s filibuster to force a vote on closing the terror gap and gun show loophole.
Where was Chris Coons?
Librarian-Gate is happening right now in Christina School District. It’s kind of unfair to target just this one District though, because the other 15 districts have to go through this every year too. Someone somewhere got it from someone else that District administrators “promised” all librarians would be returning to Christina schools if the March […]
This story sucks because 1) stealing is wrong, and 2) it will allow idiots like Tom Kline to rest easy in their idiotically shallow beliefs about state workers and governments in general.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is slated to address supporters with a video live stream on Thursday night, his campaign confirmed Tuesday. He may announce a transition to a platform campaign to press for changes to the party primary process and platform. Hillary seems to be doing a very good job of consolidating the Democratic base on her own without Bernie’s help, so I am less concerned about an enthusiastic endorsement being made as soon as possible. Hillary has carved out some space for Bernie, Hillary and the DNC to negotiate and slowly tamp down the primary heat. Which is a good thing.
A new Bloomberg poll finds that Hillary Clinton has opened up a double-digit lead nationally over Donald Trump, 49% to 37%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson getting 9%. Take out Johnson, and Hillary leads 54-36. That is simply a massive landslide that would sweep the country blue and give us back the House with a 20-30 seat majority.
Very interesting: 55% of those polled saying they could never vote for Trump.
Said pollster Ann Selzer: “Clinton has a number of advantages in this poll, in addition to her lead. Her supporters are more enthusiastic than Trump’s and more voters overall see her becoming a more appealing candidate than say that for Trump.”
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll also shows Clinton leading by 12 points.
I just got word from a source that State Senator Karen Peterson has announced her retirement on the floor of the Senate. This is devastating news for progressives in this state.
Clearly, from the reaction, and from my sources, this announcement was unexpected. I wonder if Peterson tabling Senate Bill 190, which is the first leg of an amendment to the Delaware Constitution to provide for equal protection under the law to all citizens regardless of race, sex, age, religion, creed, color, familial status, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity, or national origin, had anything to do with it.
The filing deadline is July 12. There are no state representatives residing in her district. Literally none.
Today’s House Agenda leads off with a bill that increases penalties for talking or texting on a hand-held device while driving. I support the bill, although I question the assertion that ‘novice drivers’ are most likely to ignore the law. Based on my observations, virtually everybody ignores the law. The bill also adds points for a second offense and thereafter. Good.
The agenda is highlighted by two anti-discrimination bills. HB 316 (Heffernan) ‘makes it clear that an employer is expressly prohibited from taking adverse employment action against an individual based on his or her reproductive health care decisions. HB 317 (Rep. K. Williams) ‘prohibits discrimination in employment based upon an individual’s caregiving responsibilities’.
HB 400 (Baumbach) incrementally, and I mean incrementally, expands the use of marijuana oils for minors. This time, by ‘by classifying pain, anxiety, or depression, if related to a terminal illness, as a qualifying condition in the Delaware Medical Marijuana Act for patients under the age 18, who will still be restricted to using CBD and oil products.’ The only thing objectionable about this bill is that it accepts the notion that any minor who could incidentally ‘get high’ via governmental imprimatur must be prevented at all costs.
Festival season in Wilmington and New Castle County has begun! The Greek Festival was last week, and the St. Anthony’s Italian Festival is this week. This is the Holy Trinity Greek Orthodox Church, on Broom Street in Wilmington. Photo by kvo_de.
This story gives me hope that the Obama plan to take all guns away from everyone is finally getting its pants on. Reacting to the mass shooting in a gay nightclub in Orlando, allegedly by a self-proclaimed ISIS sympathizer, Senate Democrats plan to push legislation once again to keep people on the federal government’s terrorist […]
You know you are in trouble when Kim Kardashian is thinking rings around you.
— Billy Flanagan (@waflanagan) June 13, 2016
Josh Marshall on the political fallout from the Orlando Massacre. Don’t be so sure it helps Trump.
There appears to be a general consensus – met with glee by Trumpites and frustration by Democrats – that the atrocity in Orlando will be a boon to the campaign of Donald Trump. It will ‘change the narrative’ and play to Trump’s call for a ban on Muslim immigration and general claim to be the only one tough enough to protect Americans. Put me down as skeptical about that assumption. [...]
Trump’s tweets [yesterday] morning were slashing but they were also preening, self-congratulatory and manic. There are ways to effectively politicize a tragedy. Trump appears psychologically incapable of doing so. He does sound ‘tough’ at some level. But far more he seems unsteady, erratic and self-obsessed.
[Trump's speech today] will hurt him rather than help him. Because Trump is Trump. Most people have little appetite for a self-congratulatory and wildly politicized screed the day after a horrific attack.
Some of you might be saying, You’re being naive: fear sells. You’re missing my point. Of course it does. But Trump’s emotional instability, his temperament largely prevents him from effectively selling it. More than benefiting from a climate of fear, I suspect he is driving home what already worries voters, what is already his singular vulnerability: he lacks the temperament and emotional stability to be president.
The other part of equation is Clinton. [...] When pollsters ask whether she has the temperament to be president and whether she is ‘tough’ and a leader she consistently and even today gets very high marks. That means she’s well positioned to withstand hard attacks on this front. The same polls show that voters overwhelmingly believe Trump lacks the temperament to be president. If he acts now like he always acts he will confirm doubts and fears that are already at the forefront of the public mind.
Last week I divulged my one essential candidate questionnaire question: Do you think that there is a “Democratic” approach to this office?
Reading through some of the Lt. Governor candidates web sites, it appears to me that Poppiti’s idea for giving the Board of Pardons direct legal authority to grant pardons for low-level, non-violent offenses is simple and rooted in Democratic principles of fairness.
I can’t cut and paste from the site, but click through here and give it a read.
Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) joked at a conservative Christian event that he prays President Obama’s days will be “few,” the Huffington Post reports. Said Perdue: “We should pray like Psalms 109:8 says. It says: ‘Let his days be few and let another have his office.’”
Perdue did not continue, but Psalm 109 is a death wish for one of David’s enemies. It continues: “Let his children be fatherless; and his wife a widow. Let his children wander about and beg; and let them seek sustenance far from their ruined homes. Let the creditor seize all that he has; and let strangers plunder the product of his labor. Let there be none to extend lovingkindness to him; nor any to be gracious to his fatherless children. Let his posterity be cut off; in a following generation let their name be blotted out.“
Hey Republicans, you want to know why Trump “happened” to you, it is because you act like Senator Perdue. Trump happened because you all are Trump.
In this week’s address, President Obama discussed the crippling economic crisis harming 3.5 million Americans in Puerto Rico.
In his weekly message, Governor Markell recognizes the progress Delaware has made in ensuring all people have the opportunity to be productive members of our community.
Spain’s anti-austerity, left-wing Podemos (“We Can”) Party (previously), which grew out of Spain’s Occupy-like Indignados movement, has just published its election manifesto for the June 26 election: The party pledges to bring unemployment down to 11% by the end of the next parliament. Unemployment is currently at 21%, with 4.8 million out of work. Podemos […]