Last night Hillary Clinton won Kentucky by 1 point, splitting the delegates at 27 a piece in a state demographically favored for Sanders, and she did much better than expected in Oregon, losing to Sanders by only an 8 point margin, 54-46, when the Sanders campaign was expecting a 30-40 point victory more in line with their performance in the Washington state caucus. In Oregon, Sanders wins 28 delegates to Clinton’s 24, so he gains a net total of 4 on the night.
Clinton is now 92 delegates away from clinching the nomination. Given the upcoming slate of primaries and the expected performances by the candidates in them, Hillary will likely clinch the nomination the second polls close in New Jersey and she is declared the projected winner, before we even get to California.
She will score landslides in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and New Jersey. She will likely get 7 of the Virgin Island’s 12 delegates. She will likely get 40 of Puerto Rico’s 67 delegates (both results based on a conservative estimate of a Hillary 60-40 win in both). In New Jersey, early models of the vote show a landslide for Hillary.
New Jersey – We haven't seem demographics like this since Maryland. Blowout. Clinton 64% – Sanders 36%. pic.twitter.com/3Yrdsd8lHE
— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) May 18, 2016
Assuming a 64% win in NJ, Hillary will win 97 of the state’s 142 delegates. And that puts her over the top at 8 pm on June 7. Hillary should plan on declaring victory that night. Concerns for the feelings of Sanders supporters, and for Sanders himself, after the unpleasantness of the last few days and Sander’s tantrum last night, are over. Sanders alone is responsible for lying to his supporters by suggesting that the primary has been stolen. Sanders alone is responsible for lying to his supporters by suggesting that he can win the nomination. Sanders alone is responsible for talking his supporters down from the violence and outright terroristic and misogynist behavior they have engaged in over the last few days. He will concede to Hillary without precondition or concession in mid June like Hillary did in 2008. And then we will talk about reforms to the primary process in 2020 and beyond, where we eliminate caucuses, closed primaries and super delegates. Then we will talk about the platform. But not before.
Quick blurb because I’m still at Christina Board meeting, but Brandywine has passed their referenda by close to a four thousand vote margin!
9,612 FOR – 5,780 against.
BSD also smashed Christina’s total turnout (13,395) by almost 2,000 votes: 15,392 total votes!
Donald Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns could be seen as a process issue, perhaps even a vetting question so important that it’s “disqualifying,” as Mitt Romney has called it. But perhaps it could be something more than that. It might be the thin end of the wedge that opens up a powerful theme against the self-professed billionaire: that Trump is a total fraud.
Trump has repeatedly refused to publish his tax returns, and repeatedly lied about his intention to do so. He promised five years ago to release his returns when President Obama released his birth certificate, and reneged. He promised to release them in February 2015; again promised to do so last fall and then in January, then backed off on the grounds that he was under an IRS audit, an argument tax experts have unanimously dismissed as nonsensical. Now he insists there’s “nothing to learn from them.”
As many financial reporters have speculated over the years, based on whatever fragmentary information Trump has provided, he almost certainly has far less money than he claims. A reporter who has dug into the question estimates Trump’s actual worth at $150–250 million; Trump claims to be worth $10 billion, which is at least 40 times the journalist’s estimate. The reality of Trump’s business career is that he is not so much a great businessman but somebody who has figured out how to make money by convincing people that he is one. [...] The particulars of his day-to-day message, to the extent he has one, barely matter. His entire appeal rests on the bedrock of his identity as a successful entrepreneur. The vast wealth Trump claims to have amassed allows him to supposedly fund his own campaign, escaping the influence of fundraisers who control his opponents. His alleged deal-making skill explains why he will be able to improve every trade deal, solve every legislative impasse, and finesse every diplomatic conflict. Trump’s endlessly repeated proposition is that he will take the skills that made him so rich and generously use them to make the country rich. Without that, he’s just a dumber version of Pat Buchanan.
I’m back from Oregon, and I see that I didn’t miss much.
The General Assembly is currently in collective thumbs-twiddling mode. I now understand why they took a week off recently. It’s not like they have nothing to address (like minimum wage), it’s just that they’ve chosen not to address much of consequence. Cowardice in an election year, who’dathunkit?
Can we just talk about minimum wage? Please? While places across the country are passing $15 an hour minimum, idiot/legislators like Andria Bennett and Quin Johnson turn up their noses at a far less ambitious proposal by accepting Chamber talking points w/o even looking on their own at how higher minimum wages have impacted communities that have implemented them. Plus, if one of them should ‘falter’ and eventually go against the Chamber, there is always the no-longer-running-for-Congress business lackey Bryon Short waiting to deep-six the proposal. When it comes to minimum wage, Delawareans did better when the R’s controlled the House than they do now.
As to the notion of raising taxes on Delaware’s wealthiest, I wrote about this last year. If it wasn’t even gonna be considered in an off-year (thanks, Pete), it certainly isn’t gonna be passed in an election year. The General Assembly made the decision to give more to the 1%, hence the corporate bailouts that were rushed through in January. More and better Democrats are few and far between in Dover.
Governor Democrats – John Carney. This is a snooze. Carney has been the consummate company man. His reward is this cakewalk election. So he’ll be the next up to “keep Delaware competitive” by cutting taxes and basically doing whatever the Chamber of commerce tells him to do. Republicans – Colin Bonini, Lacey Lafferty. Less boring […]
Part 2 was released today and this post has updated links. Have you heard about this new podcast? Sponsored by the Delaware Center for Justice, this is a long-form reporting project that is meant to explore the role that poverty plays in Wilmington’s crime problems. This will be in four parts — and so far includes voices from young men wrapped up in crime as well as voices from the ACLU, Dr. Yasser Payne, Charlie Copeland and others who are illuminating the larger picture involved with Wilmington’s crime problems. I’ve listened to the first one (this is about 20 minutes long) and it is riveting. Give it a listen and I hope you’ll come back to this thread to discuss this work and the issues it raises.
To all who want us to address the McDole shooting and the Howard beating: I know very little about it, and to the extent that I do know about it, I do not have a political opinion on it yet. I will check into it over the next few days, and if I am inspired to write about it, I will. But I won’t make any promise that I or any one here will.
I am not paid to do this. In fact, I pay to do this. This may sound kinda of crass, but this is my hobby. Politics. Local Politics. National Politics. When I get time to read and write, I do. As such, things that interest me, and that I have a political opinion about, are what I tend to write about. I don’t know how to write about the beating of a teenager to death in a high school bathroom.
This is not the News Journal or WDEL where we report the news and then analyze the news. I focus on politics, both Delaware and National. It is true, we have focused too much lately on national politics and the presidential race. Behind the scenes last week, I began to switch that national focus back to local by researching and writing up the Vote Tracker piece. El Som has his Pre Game Post Game General Assembly posts coming back this week. I am going to be writing more on the Congressional race, and I have a new entry coming tomorrow or Tuesday on who is running for each General Assembly seat.
But I and we cannot cover everything you want. So, I do want you to encourage any and all of you to submit guest posts on the topics you want to see covered. Email me at DelawareDem@delawareliberal.net. And I your writing is good, hell, we may just keep you around.
I have heard that Valerie Longhurst was a little perturbed by Sean Barney taking some credit for passing the background check bill when he was in the Markell Administration. Apparently she warned Barney months ago to stop taking credit for gun safety legislation since allegedly he had no hand it helping get it passed. He didn’t listen. So now this:
“Hillary Clinton is considering a running mate who could make a direct appeal to supporters of Bernie Sanders, bridging a generational and political divide,” USA Today reports.
“Clinton’s chief requirements include a candidate’s resume and a fighter capable of hand-to-hand combat with Trump. The campaign’s vetting also prioritizes demographics over someone from a key swing state as she seeks to unify the Democratic voting base, said the individuals coordinating with the campaign, who were not authorized to speak on the record about early deliberations.”
On that note, Warren’s audition for the job has been noticed by Hillary. Huffington Post: “One close Clinton confidant said that she and her aides were ‘thrilled to see Warren get under his skin.’ Another senior Clinton adviser, who is advocating internally for Warren as a vice presidential pick, said the senator has ‘very influential people in the campaign pushing for her.’” Said one longtime Clinton veteran: “You want a running mate who can take the fight to the other side with relish. Geography does not matter, but attitude and talent and energy and bringing excitement to the campaign, Senator Warren does all that.”
“The attributes that Warren would bring to the VP slot extend beyond vigorous mocking of Trump. Top Democrats increasingly see a dual-female ticket as a potent response to a GOP nominee with a well-documented past of sexist remarks.”
The General Assembly spent a couple of hours, literally, at the start of the year giving corporate Delaware a massive tax break in passing House Bill 235, the Luntzly named Delaware Competes Act. But the state’s minimum wage workers still await their raise.
The Vote Tracker is back after a break. We are tracking bills that have some progressive or anti-progressive import. So, in other words, bills that we want to see passed or do not want to see passed. We don’t track all bills filed in the General Assembly.
Stephen Greenberg, a Democratic pollster and author of American Ascendant, writes, “Moderate Republicans will have the last word in this dramatic presidential election year.” Greenberg believes that moderates make up 31% of Republican party.
It was him. Donald Trump is a pathetic weak little man.
Muslim-smashin’, Mexican-bashin’ tough guy Donald Trump seems to have been caught red-handed denying that he impersonated a non-existent spokesman to tell reporters how awesome he is. (Meet Trump Organization spokesman John Miller, who you can’t meet because he doesn’t exist.) Trump denied this notwithstanding the fact that he admitted to doing this in a legal deposition years ago. The story was bubbling all day. But when The Washington Post (attack organ run by Trump Arch-Nemesis Jeff Bezos) confronted him with the deception on the phone, he first went silent on the reporters and then hung up.
In this week’s address, Grammy Award-winning artist Macklemore joined President Obama to discuss a disease that affects far too many Americans: addiction.
In his weekly message, Governor Markell highlights the work of Stand By Me, a financial empowerment program celebrating its fifth anniversary.
Will Bunch is always worth a close read, and his piece in the 12 May Philly Inquirer (h/t to anonymous in the Thursday Open Thread) is no exception. I’ve had this open in a tab since last night and have been thinking alot about his question: Money monster: What if the problem’s not the candidates but capitalism?
Yesterday’s comment section was, indeed, nuts, but when I went back and reread it several things jumped out at me. First, the incorrect use and expectation of feminism. Let’s start with the definition of feminism: 1 : the theory of the political, economic, and social equality of the sexes 2 : organized activity on behalf […]