Wired’s Emma Grey Ellis tallied up the amount North Carolina has lost so far due to it’s HB2 bathroom fixation. The $176,000 taxpayers have spent so far, and additional $500,000 in taxpayer money recently transferred to cover Governor McCrory’s legal fees is just the tip of the iceberg. The Grand Total Adding all that up, […]
John Avlon on whether terror attacks can help Trump: “Though he’s a uniquely unqualified candidate, I’ve been concerned about an outside X-Factor event suddenly changing the emotional calculus of the electorate in ways that we would later regret. This could be a sudden economic collapse or a cyber October-surprise. But terrorism has always seemed the prime known-unknown.”
“After all, terrorism is now a depressingly regular feature of American life. While no attacks have rivaled 9/11, we saw at least 45 thwarted terror plots in the first ten years after the destruction of the World Trade Center and in the last year alone suffered horrific losses in the San Bernardino and Orlando slaughters. But we have no template for the impact of an attack just before an American election.”
If all he has to offer is fear and overreaction, then no, it will not help him. I actually have been pleasantly surprised at how nonplussed the public has been over the weekend’s bombings. Not that they are minimizing the bombing and the knifing attacks, but that the public maybe putting it into perspective while at the same time wanting competent government investigation. Perspective and competence are not things you associate with Trump.
Aside from two inexplicable RDs that George Parrish won in Wilmington, this map shows the perfect north-south divide of the Delaware Republican Party.
I wonder what explains KWS’s downstate wins other than establishment support? Perhaps they had no idea who Trini Navarro was. I was quite surprised at Navarro’s strength in Wilmington.
Lacy spent tons of her own money and campaigned for four years for 1 RD.
Josh Marshall on the Fever Inside:
We’ve now seen one of those days which has become darkly familiar in the year of Trump. Trump is dominated, put on the receiving end of various perceived insults and assaults. In this case, it was being coerced by campaign aides into finally giving up the birther lie – which had to be addressed after the Washington Post interview and which I suspect they feared might blow up one of the debates. That was followed by a series of attacks from Hillary Clinton, a for once emboldened press corps roundly attacking Trump for the content and manner of his “major announcement”, a furious attack from members of the Congressional Black Caucus and a mix of outrage and mockery from everyone from Barack to Michelle.
The response was predictable and rapid.
Trump lives in a psychic economy of aggression and domination. There are dominators and the dominated. No in between. Every attack he receives, every ego injury must be answered, rebalanced with some new aggression to reassert dominance. These efforts are often wildly self-destructive. We’ve seen the pattern again and again. The Khans, Judge Curiel, Ted Cruz, virtually every Republican presidential candidate at one point or another, half the reporters who’ve covered Trump. We can’t know a man’s inner thoughts. But we’ve seen action and reaction more than enough times to infer, or rather deduce, his instincts and needs with some precision.
This map really shows you how everyone but Bethany Hall Long was a regional candidate. Fuller and McGuiness relegated to Sussex. Popitti and Dorsey Walker to Wilmington and New Castle County. Eaby in Dover. Every candidate won multiple RDs. But only Hall Long won in multiple parts of the state.
Josh Marshall gives us all a chill pill:
News Events Can Dramatically Affect Enthusiasm. Clinton has come off an awful few weeks. She took a bunch of days off the campaign trail for fundraisers. Then she had a media storm with “deplorables”, then she collapses on camera, was diagnosed with pneumonia and then spent three or four days totally off camera and off the campaign trail. These events may hurt Clinton. They may damage her campaign fatally. But a more likely explanation of the rapid shift in the polls is that they sharply demoralized her supporters and shook free her least committed supporters. That shows up in likely voter models; it leads to differential poll response. This does not mean the polls are wrong. It means they are accurately measuring the effect of those events. But there is good reason to think that it may be ephemeral because it is more as much a shift in enthusiasm and engagement than opinion. (We’ve even noticed a significant drop in TPM traffic since Clinton’s fainting spell. We’ve seen this happen before when our readers think the news sucks and some just tune out. No, I’m not basing this theory on TPM’s traffic. I just think it’s part of a common phenomenon.)
Rochester dominated in Wilmington and Dover and its suburbs, and held her own downstate, even winning districts in what where three way ties. Barney won several Sussex districts where I suppose his military background was attractive. Townsend won the People’s Republic of Newark, but did not win all of Greater Newark, where Rochester won. Townsend also won the the liberal enclaves of Milton and Rehoboth, and thus the 20th and 14th RDs downstate.
As you can see, the potential Mayor-Elect Mike Purzycki owes his victory to the Highlands and the West Side, though he had strong second place finishes in those areas where Eugene Young notched his victories. Interestingly though, in those areas where Kevin Kelley won in the West Side, Purzycki did not finish second, but third or worse. Further, in the north and northeast, where the color indicates that he finished in fifth place, he really finished much worse than that. Like 6th, 7th or 8th place. I just ran out of shades of pink and space in order to express that correctly. So as Purzycki admitted on election night, he has work to there and across the city in Kevin Kelley’s home base. Another thing that I found interesting is that Purzycki finished third in the southern Riverfront area across the river. I would have figured the residents of Christina Landing would have put him in second at least.
Or so this WDEL “story” by Rob Petree would have us know.
As times change, so do political parties–as is the case for the Grand Old Party. Many Delawareans have considered the Republican party to be one of exclusivity, as evidenced in the elections. Delaware Republican Chairman Charlie Copeland wants voters to know his party is “no longer your father’s GOP.”
“In the Republican party, there is active diversity–whether it’s African Americans, Hispanics, White, whether it’s LGBTQ, I mean the whole gamut–and we have an active discussion about all of those issues, and I think it’s good for the party and I think it’s good for the country.”
Hey Rob, once you dutifully took down that statement as Copeland’s hired steneographer, did it occur to you to ask any follow up questions, like, oh I don’t know, do you and your party support the Donald Trump and his history of racism?
James Fallows has a must-read piece on the upcoming presidential debates:
“If the sound-off image is of a calm, confident Clinton and a fuming Trump, she will have won the debates and moved that much closer to winning the election. But if Trump can seem easily rather than angrily in command, or if he can lure Clinton into joining him in an insult-for-insult exchange, or if she is beset by some new controversy for which she gives a hyper-legalistic rationalization, then the debates could be a turning point for Trump. … If he seems better than expected, either by throwing Clinton off her game or appearing calmer than a wound-up opponent who gives a dense six-point answer to every question, he might achieve something similar to Reagan’s ‘There you go again!’”
A potential strategy for Clinton:
“Most people I spoke with recommended a picador-like mocking approach, designed not to confront Trump directly but to cumulatively provoke him into an outburst. … When Comedy Central hosted a roast of Trump five years ago, he didn’t seem to object to jokes about his hair, about his weight, even about his lecherous remarks regarding his daughter Ivanka. The one subject he nixed, according to Aaron Lee, a writer for the roast, was ‘any joke that suggests Trump is not actually as wealthy as he claims to be.’ So this is a scab Hillary Clinton should deftly pick.”
In short: The Dem primary is the election in Presidential years. Team Simpler will be back in two years with the “I’m not really a Republican” theme they used to great effect last time, and will probably give Lisa Blunt Rochester a decent run for her money. Has LBR started fundraising for 2018 yet? Sad to say, but she better get on that.
I have developed a new love of maps, and will be preparing several showing other races. But here is a map of Wilmington showing Young’s strength in the city. If my review of the data is correct, Eugene Young either came in first, second or third place in all but one small district of the city. The first place finishes are colored in gold, the second place finishes in yellow, and the third place finishes in a light yellow. It shows you what Cassandra was saying earlier: his campaign was city wide and pretty damn spectacular. Young was competitive in all parts of the city. He will be back.
Click on the image for the large version. Hey, DOE, where is the missing 14th Election District of the 4th RD? Your raw data reports contain no information concerning this district. I sense a conspiracy of biblical proportions (but given the district’s placement, the votes likely benefit Purzycki or Kelley).
That was the number of votes that separated Mike Purzycki and Eugene Young for Wilmington Mayor by the end of the night on Tuesday. The difference between Purzycki and Kevin Kelley was 415 votes. 12,578 votes for Mayor were cast. But at the end of the day, there were 2,734 votes cast for Eugene Young who made me proud to be a small part of his campaign everyday. Everyday. A quick reminder of where we started — a year or so back, as Eugene started talking with people to gather up support, the leadership of this city (and its pundits) told him that no one knew him, then that he needed to wait his turn for Mayor, then that he couldn’t raise any money. Eugene did, of course, overcome every bit of that and ignored the wait your turn crowd. With is smart and fiercely competitive management team, he ran a citywide campaign with more than 200 volunteers (91 volunteers showed up and volunteered on Tuesday. 91!) and ended up knocking on more than 50,000 Wilmington doors. He ran an honorable and progressive campaign and completely avoided the sideshows that were being run by the more establishment candidates. Eugene Young, his vision for the city and his crackerjack campaign team caught the attention of the News Journal who endorsed a genuine progressive for Mayor. It was a real heartbreaker to come up short by 234 votes.
The News Journal’s Map of the Wilmington Mayoral Primary
reveals a city divided almost exactly along its quadrant lines: is actually probably inaccurate given that the colors assigned to various districts do not correspond to the actual winners of those districts.
A larger version of the map with the data is here.
I will be crafting a new map today. Stay tuned.
A Washington Post editorial says even Trump’s charity is a scam:
“Mr. Trump has cultivated the persona of a generous man, repeatedly claiming on television he would donate to charity “out of my wallet” and accepting honors from groups he appeared to support. In fact, an exhaustive investigation by Post reporter David A. Fahrenthold shows that Mr. Trump retooled his foundation about a decade ago to act as an intermediary for other people’s charitable giving, a racket from which Mr. Trump gained in reputation and from which he may even have occasionally profited.”
“Mr. Trump does not appear to have given his own money to the Trump Foundation since 2008, and by then Trump funds had become a tiny slice of the organization’s revenue. Since then, the available records suggest, a charitable group that bears the billionaire’s name has been funded by others. That has not stopped Mr. Trump from claiming credit for doling out other people’s cash.”
Does anyone know DEGOP Special Election Specialist, Tom Kovach’s, whereabouts? Too soon?
El Som lays it out in a comment:
I am worried about what will happen in SD 10 once Bethany Hall-Long is elected Lt. Governor in November. Late fall/early winter special elections are not exactly D strong suits. Looks like Quin Johnson and Earl Jaques are in that district, so maybe it’ll be one of them. Which, of course, would necessitate a House Special Election should one of them win…
While I agree Dems have sucked in specials, I think Jaques is seasoned enough to not get caught with his pants down. The ensuing 27th RD special if Jaques moves up, who knows? The district seemed a bit of a toss-up until Jaques started consolidating votes as the incumbent. He got 65% against Republican nominee Jay Galloway in 2010 and was unopposed in 2012.
From commenter Marcellus Wallace, who may need to get a promotion to contributer here at DL after this analysis he just posted this evening:
I believe LBR is a nice woman with legitimate high-level government experience and great potential. But her public performances (and lack thereof) left the impression that she is not ready for prime time, to put it charitably. I wanted to figure out how she won so convincingly. So I made sweet Excel love to the district-level data on the Department of Elections’ web page, so you don’t have to. My takeaways are below. Please note: the data is the data, but the conclusions are mine.
For starters, it would be easy to say that LBR won because of strong support in the City and surrounding areas, and that is true. But the real story is that she administered a broad-based, statewide ass kicking. All told, LBR won 28 of the 41 RDs statewide. In 13 of those 28 RDs, LBR earned more votes than Townsend and Barney combined.