Taegen Goddard says Trump is the Republican Party: “Though the other campaigns still won’t admit it, Trump represents today’s Republican party. He’s leading all national polls. He’s leading in nearly every state that votes in March. He’s the overwhelming frontrunner. Trump’s chief rival at this point is Ted Cruz, who is very close to consolidating the evangelical and social conservative vote. Cruz will attack him relentlessly in South Carolina for not being a conservative. But the so-called “establishment” candidates — John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush — will be engaged in their own bloody battle. Even if just one of them can emerge as a non-Trump alternative — something that may not be possible at this point — it’s not clear their share of the vote would even be big enough to take on Trump.
…..that since October, 8 committee members of the 14th Democratic RD Committee have resigned? Did you know that four of them have done so since the death penalty repeal vote and the early endorsement of Pete Schwartzkopf, the RD’s Representative in the General Assembly, who also happens to be the Speaker, who also happens to be against the repeal of the death penalty? I just thought that was interesting. Something strange is going on down south.
….come here, ’cause I’m gonna slap you upside your head. Seriously, if you know anyone who is not registered to vote in the upcoming presidential and state primaries, here are some dates and forms for you. First, if you want to vote in Delaware’s Presidential Democratic or Republican Primary on April 26th and you are currently registered as “Unaffiliated” or for some other minor party, you must re-register as a member of a political party by February 26.
John Sununu is simply Su-nuts-nuts. I don’t know what to say about these Democratic Biden backers who still seem to think Joe can be cajoled and flattered into “saving” the Democratic Party from itself. WASHINGTON — As donors expressed hope over the weekend that Vice President Joe Biden could still jump into the presidential race, […]
This GOP graph is startling. The Dem graph is more like the staid and plodding IEM traders I’ve watched over the years.
DL GOP Fantasy Pool Update (2) – Christie kills Rubio on the way out the door, Fiorina gets laid off
Christie gets to return to New Jersey with zero delegates, but with Rubio’s guts draped around his neck. Rubio will stagger forward for a while because he wasn’t using his guts much anyway. Jeb! is still hanging around despite the fact that the lights are all on, chairs are being put on tables and the bartender is looking at him crossly as he wipes down the bar. Also…Fiorina will not get to do to America what she did to HP ..and Newton takes a seemingly unassailable lead.
Here are the revised standings:
Obviously, Sanders absolutely crushed Clinton last night, getting a 20 point victory and necessary momentum. No way to spin this for Clinton, it was a loss, and a challenge. At the same, Sanderistas shouldn’t get too excited, just as Clintonistas shouldn’t get too depressed. What is next is a long primary, one that I expect Clinton to win. Bernie Sanders absolutely had to have this win, and he had to win it by the margins he did to have any chance going forward (because if he had won only in the single digits, that would have been spun as a Clinton victory). So Sanders gets his day in the sun and he should enjoy it. For a couple hours. Because then it is onto South Carolina and Nevada and then all the states in Super Tuesday. So he has a lot of work to do.
And you can take it or leave it from me, but he is still behind the eight ball. If you include the superdelegates, who can of course change their commitments at any time, Clinton is now ahead with a 394-42 delegate lead. But unlike in 2008, when superdelegates did change their mind and go with Obama, do you think that would happen in 2016? Nope, not in a million years. Not unless Hillary dies or drops out. Sanders is not Obama. He does not have a shot in the general election like Obama did. He is not even a Democrat, and does not support Democratic candidates. That’s important to superdelegates. So there is no way they will abandon Hillary to go with Sanders. To beat them, he will have to sweep the primaries coming up.
And that may prove to be a tough task. The last poll out of South Carolina had Clinton up 64-27, and in Nevada, Clinton was up 50-27. So Bernie has a long way to go. But still, good win.
It’s no secret that I can’t get 100% behind a candidate. Whatever. I’m a mess. Yep, it’s me, not you. Here’s what we can do… Given the fact (yes, fact) that neither one of our candidates will get their agenda through Congress, we will need to stay focused and supportive. Some (some, not all) of […]
In 2007 Joe Biden, an esteemed senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, voted in favor of Bush’s vanity war in Iraq. It was a craven vote for a transparently corrupt war intended, ironically, to safeguard his future electoral viability. To their credit, Democratic primary voters remembered that vote and denied Joe Biden the presidency. Votes have consequences. Americans do not favor giving pusillanimous politicians the keys to the White House. Does anyone doubt that Biden would have sailed to the nomination and the Presidency is he had only asked, “What’s the REAL reason for this war?” and then voted as his heart and head both advised him? Instead, he (and Jeb Bush) are the only American politicians to ever pay a price for that war, and that price was astonishingly small compared to the price Iraqis continue to pay.
Between 2001 and last spring, Bill and Hillary Clinton were paid $153 million for speeches delivered to a range of oligarchs and big banks, including Goldman Sachs, the very company that profited so wildly from pushing the country to the brink of economic ruin. Like the Iraq war vote, these speaking fees are an affront to decency and common sense that Democratic primary voters appear unwilling to forgive. No US bankers have been jailed for their crimes against this country. For their outright attack on our economy that wiped out retirement accounts and life saving, they only got bonuses. Hillary Clinton may now be the only person in the upper reaches of power to pay a price for the reckless criminality of the US financial industry.
Is that fair? I don’t know. But there is a heart beating within the US electorate and that heart years for the scales of justice to somehow be set right.
I’m going to just put everything out there – which means this post will probably be all over the place. Forgive me for repeating myself, but one of my biggest issues with Bernie Sanders is his limited platform and the way all, and I do mean all, roads lead to income equality. That just isn’t […]
Ed Kilgore says New Hampshire has a long history of Primary Night Surprises.
The Granite State has a long tradition of thumbing its nose at the preferences of Iowa, its first-in-the-nation twin. The last time the New Hampshire Democrats voted for the same candidate in a competitive primary was in 2000 with Al Gore; you have to go back to 1992 to find a similarly harmonious early-state outcome for Republicans. But high-impact results in New Hampshire go all the way back to 1952, when voters there were first allowed to directly vote for candidates rather than just delegates. President Harry Truman’s ambitions for a second full term expired when he lost to crowd-pleasing Tennessee senator Estes Kefauver. (Truman’s successor Dwight D. Eisenhower, meanwhile, began his climb to the White House by beating “Mr. Republican” Robert Taft.)
In 1964 Republicans surprised probably even themselves by giving a write-in candidacy on behalf of ambassador to South Vietnam (and former Massachusetts senator) Henry Cabot Lodge a victory over Nelson Rockefeller and Barry Goldwater. In 1968, Democrats showed that meeting expectations could matter as much as order of finish, as President Lyndon Johnson was all but pushed out of a reelection race by a shockingly narrow victory over Gene McCarthy. The same thing happened to 1972 Democratic front-runner Ed Muskie, who underperformed in a win over eventual nominee George McGovern (one of two consecutive long-shot Democrats to be lifted into contention by New Hampshire, the other being Jimmy Carter in 1976). The reverse phenomenon occurred in 1992, when Bill Clinton became the “comeback kid” with a better-than-expected second-place finish immediately following the Gennifer Flowers scandal.
That said, Hillary will not win in New Hampshire tonight. If she does, the primary is over. What is important is the margin. If the margin is 15-30 points as the polls suggest, Bernie gets the win and momentum. If the margin is in single digits, Hillary gets the “win” and momentum.
We know many politicians are owned by their donors. This ballot initiative would make make it impossible to miss Can you tell me more about the initiative? What are you proposing, exactly? The initiative is a statutory change that will basically require every state legislator in California – there are 120 – to wear the […]
DR Tucker \at the Washington Monthly:
The suggestion that most Sanders-supporting progressives will refuse to vote on November 8 if Sanders isn’t the Democratic nominee defies all logic. Sure, there may be a few disgruntled Bernie-backers who will either skip the polls or pull the level for presumptive Green Party nominee Jill Stein if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, but ask yourself: considering the stakes involved, do you honestly believe that the folks who have been attracted to Sanders’s message would, in essence, concede the election to whichever radical from last night’s debate wins the GOP nomination?
Remember the nonsensical “PUMA” movement in 2008? The idea that large numbers of Clinton supporters would actually refuse to vote for Barack Obama in the general election was laughable—and the idea that most Sanders supporters will throw a tantrum in the event the Vermonter is vanquished is just as silly.
[...] To accept the premise that most Sanders supporters would go on a general-election strike if Clinton wins the Democratic nomination is to accept the right’s premise of progressive irrationality. In order to buy the idea that the “Bernie or Bust!” movement is real, one would have to believe that most Sanders supporters:
* are unmindful of the importance of the United States Supreme Court, US District Courts of Appeal, and US District Courts, and the judges appointed to each division;
* are perfectly willing to allow a situation whereby a Republican President, Republican House and Republican Senate are finally in a position to obliterate Obamacare;
* would have no problem with four years of nothing being done to stem the bloody tide of handgun violence;
* would give the Christian right the opportunity to reinstate coathangers as the only reproductive option for women facing unplanned and unwanted pregnancies;
* would tolerate a Republican president fomenting a culture of racial and religious intolerance;
* would ignore the prospect of the GOP gutting President Obama’s Clean Power Plan and successfully sabotaging the 2015 Paris climate agreement; and
* would gamble on the idea that a Republican president could be thrown out of office in 2020 in favor of, presumably, Democratic presidential nominee Elizabeth Warren.
In other words, to buy this idea, one would have to buy absolute absurdity.
Members of the progressive family are simply having an argument over who will be the best individual to lead the country into the next decade. Yes, the language in this argument is sometimes raw, crude, personal. However, does anyone really believe that at the end of the primary, the progressive family will not set aside its differences and come together?
Indeed, those Sanders supporters who say they will not vote for Hillary are the type of voter that have never voted for the Democratic nominee in the first place. They vote Green, Working Families, Socialist, Communist or not at all. So if you want to see how large their numbers are, look at prior vote totals for those parties.
The New Castle County Democratic Committee will be holding a “Candidate Forum Night” for the positions of Insurance Commissioner and Lt. Governor. The Forum will be on February 17, 2016 at 7 pm at the Local 74 Executive Banquet & Conference Center, 205 Executive Drive, Newark, Delaware 19702. During this forum there will be an interactive question and answer session with the audience. Meanwhile, the News Journal and WHYY have formed a coalition with various community groups to hose four debates for the candidates for Wilmington Mayor.
Basically, everyone needs to stop the sexist behavior, whether it is in the form of BernieBros or the Women on Women Crime that Gloria Steinem and Madeline Albright engaged in. If we did, perhaps, we could discuss issues like Climate Change, reproductive rights, immigration, Police brutality, improving our education system, Foreign Policy (altho this was touched on in the last debate) our crumbling infrastructure – you know, things that our candidates aren’t discussing. Personally, I’d like to hear about these issues, as well as income inequality. Hopefully I get my wish because these things matter, too.
Income inequality is an important issue, but it isn’t the only one, and right now I’m not sure where the candidates stand on other issues that matter to me. That’s a problem for me. A BIG one. It’s probably the reason I can’t pick a candidate. I need more, because the office of President is about more, but you wouldn’t know that by listening to the debates. Guess I’m saying, I completely understand where each candidates stand on income inequality… can we start to include other things? There actually are other things.
Meanwhile, can we step up our game and drop the sexism on both sides?
This is pretty weak, I’ll admit. But I have to hurry up and file this prediction to keep this feature going. The Panther will beat the Bronco. I mean a bronco could land a lucky kick on a panther’s head, but all mascot signs point to the panther feasting on the horse. I guess some years it is that simple.
The beginning of the Republican primary debate in New Hampshire Thursday night may go down as the most awkward in memory.
It all started when Ben Carson failed to walk onstage when his name was called, causing a bottleneck in the wings that the other candidates had to walk around. Then Donald Trump apparently didn’t hear his name and stood by Carson while other candidates walked by the two of them. On top of it all, the ABC News moderators forgot about John Kasich, leaving an empty podium on stage and one Ohio governor hovering off to the side.
Then Marcodyne Rubicon Systems Model T100 faltered last night, getting stuck on repeat.
Booman says we are in for a long primary, even if Clinton becomes the inevitable nominee in March:
Even if Clinton rips off a bunch of big victories in a row and seems like the inevitable nominee, it’s pretty unlikely that Sanders will concede because he’ll have all the money he needs to keep campaigning. And I don’t think he really set out to win this thing at the beginning, so he’s not quitting just because he realizes that he won’t be nominated. He’ll want to keep hammering home his points and gathering delegates for the convention.
A long campaign will be painful, but 2008 showed there can be important upsides. The more states the two campaigns organize, the more work they’ll have done in advance of the general election. The more the country is focused on the differences between Clinton and Sanders, the more they’ll be focused on their messaging and values and the less they’ll be focused on the messaging and values of the Republicans.
It’s true that some feelings will get hurt and some bitterness will result. It’s not cost-free to have an extended contested nomination, and the eventual nominee will get wounded. But, even here, some of Obama’s worst vulnerabilities were old news by November precisely because they’d been hashed out in the winter and spring.
As long as the process doesn’t leave the nominee underfunded, it’s probably not a problem to have a long primary season.