Delaware Dem's Latest Posts
Ed Kilgore on what a Democratic win in Kansas should mean:
If the Republican governor of a very Republican state loses for undertaking a conservative political and policy revolution, complete with a purge of party “moderates” and reactionary legislation on just about every front imaginable, it may remind Republicans everywhere that there are limits to a meta-strategy of moving to the right, polarizing the electorate, and then winning on money and pure dumb luck. As a huge bonus, among the injured in a Brownback loss would be the Koch Brothers, right there in their Wichita lair….
Brownback has very publicly made his state a conservative “experiment station” and sought to stamp out any dissent in his party, all in the pursuit of a sort of intellectual rogue’s gallery of bad ideas, from supply-side economics to the harshest attacks in the country on reproductive rights. He not only deserves to lose, but his regime needs to be remembered with fear and trembling by Republicans everywhere.
I guarantee you, if Republicans lose in Kansas, it will be because they were not conservative enough. Conservatism never fails, it can only be failed.
Earlier this past week, Ezra Klein wondered why Vice President Joe Biden was trailing Hillary Clinton by 44 points in the latest poll of a potential match up in the 2016 primary. Ezra said that it wasn’t the Biden gaffes or the preception that he is a joke; it’s that “Biden is an old-school, white, male politician in a party that’s increasingly young, multicultural, and female.”
Seth Masket at the Monkey Cage has a different take, and it is the right one.
This is a massive polling dump that includes polls that go back to last week, polls that I have not previously posted. I have grouped all the states alphabetically, and then separated the offices of Senator and Governor. Where there are multiple polls in a particular state and office, the older polls are listed first, and newer polls are listed last. This past polling week has some good news from Arkansas, very bad news from Alaska, bad news from Colorado, and good news from Iowa and North Carolina. These Senate races are going to go down to the wire, and turnout will be the key. If our voters turnout, Dems will win all of them. If not, the GOP will win. Right now, as you will see, I have the GOP picking up 6 new Senate seats while successfully defending Kentucky and Georgia, BUT the GOP will lose Kansas. And Iowa remains too close to call.
So that leaves us with 50 GOP seats, 48 Democratic seats, 1 toss up Iowa seat, and a kingmaker in Kansas. The Independent Greg Orman has said that he will caucus with whomever wins the majority. But what if that decision is up to him? If Iowa goes to the Dems, then it will be 50-49. If Orman goes with the Dems, it is 50-50 with Biden (D) the tiebreaking vote, giving the Dems the majority. If Orman goes with the GOP, it will be 51-49 GOP.
Personally, I think the Dems will still win in Colorado despite this last week of bad polls there, and I think they will win in Iowa, leaving us with a 51-49 Dem Senate.
DELAWARE–SENATOR–Univ. of Delaware: Sen. Chris Coons (D) 50, Kevin Wade (R) 27, Andrew Groff (G) 6
DELAWARE–REPRESENTATIVE–Univ. of Delaware: Rep. John Carney (D) 52, Rose Izzo (R) 17, Others 11
I wonder if these numbers are more to the pundits’ liking.
A Delaware Poll! Coons leads Wade by 15, and we got approval numbers on Obama, Biden, Carper and Markell
For some reason, the Republican-leaning Rasmussen polled little ole Delaware, and found Senator Chris Coons (D) leading Republican nominee Kevin Wade, 49% to 34%. A source who has access to some of the internals that are hidden behind a pay wall on Rasmussen’s site has sent me snapshots of the favorability ratings of Vice President Biden and Senator Carper, and the approval ratings of Governor Markell and President Obama. Unfortunately, my source did not have any further numbers for Senator Coons or GOP Nominee Kevin Wade. Come inside for the surprising numbers.
Charlie Cook: “Two things may be keeping Republican strategists up at night: money and the Democratic ground game. Perhaps the biggest untold story of this election is how so many Republican and conservative donors, at least those whose last name isn’t Koch, have kept their checkbooks relatively closed… Many Republican and conservative donors appear to be somewhat demoralized after 2012. They feel that they were misled about the GOP’s chances in both the presidential and senatorial races that year, and/or their money was not well spent. In short, they are giving less if at all, and it has put Republican candidates in a bind in a number of places.”
“Another reason things might not turn out for Republicans is if the highly touted Democratic Senate ground game comes together. Clearly the Obama campaign and Democratic allies had a superior voter-identification and get-out-the-vote operation two years ago… In midterm elections, if Democrats can crank up the turnout among young, female, and minority voters, then their chances of success this year increase.”
We have more polls painting a pretty happy picture for Dems.
The New York Times on what we politicos know to be true: the disaster in Kansas, both fiscally and for Republicans politically is a direct result of conservative tax policy. We have known it for years: cutting taxes does not, repeat, does not lead to increased revenue. Duh, it cuts revenue, meaning that the government has to cut spending. Conservatives are just fine with cutting spending. They do not care about their constituents. But unfortunately for them, their constituents vote.
“Although every statewide elected official in Kansas is a Republican and President Obama lost the state by more than 20 points in the last election,” Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) “proudly conservative policies have turned out to be so divisive and his tax cuts have generated such a drop in state revenue that they have caused even many Republicans to revolt[.]
“Projections put state budget shortfalls in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually, raising questions of whether the state can adequately fund education in particular. This has boosted the hopes of the Democratic candidate, Paul Davis, the State House minority leader, who has shot up in the polls even though he has offered few specifics about how he would run the state. Many disaffected Republicans might give Mr. Davis their vote because, if nothing else, he is not Mr. Brownback.”
Democrat Davis will win the Kansas governorship, and a possibly Democratic-leaning Independent will unseat a longtime incumbent GOP Senator, all because the Republicans finally cut taxes too much, and their own voters noticed they were getting screwed. Finally.
Politico reports that GOP Operatives are scared “that an ambitious Democratic turnout initiative will give the party a potentially significant 1- or 2-percentage point boost in some key states.” Damn. I was hoping they would sit back and enjoy the Republican leaning polls that have been giving prognosticators the giggles that the GOP has the Senate in the bag. But then again, the Democrats have done the job on the state level to maintain control. Nate Cohn:
“A few months ago, the Democratic path to a Senate majority looked long and arduous… But today the Democratic path to victory looks as clear as it has at any point this year. That path remains narrow, to be sure. The Democrats will probably still need to sweep those five fairly close races. Yet with just two months to go, the Democrats appear to have an advantage in four of them. And the Democrats have other opportunities that might give them more breathing room.”
“If Colorado and Michigan are penciled into the Democratic column, the Democrats would then need three more states to get to a majority. The Democrats have a fairly broad set of options for those states, but the likeliest possibility is that the election comes down to three states: Alaska, Iowa and North Carolina.”
Recent polling out of all three is positive for the Dems, plus we are leading in Louisiana and are competitive in Georgia, Arkansas and Kentucky. And let’s not forget Kansas.