Delaware Dem's Latest Posts
El Som and I have posted our predictions. And we vary wildly from each other on a few key races. Where do our beloved readers and commenters stand? If you want, please post your predictions below in the comments from the following races. The House and Senate races I selected are the ones that are most competitive.
US Senator–Coons v. Wade
US Rep–Carney v. Izzo
Treasurer–Barney v. Simpler
AG–Denn v. Kittila
Auditor–Mayrack v. Wagner
6th SD–Snyder-Hall v. Lopez
10th SD–Hall-Long v. Marino
17th SD–Bushweller v. Warfield
18th SD–Emory v. Simpson
21st SD–Venables v. Richardson
4th RD–Brady v. Keesler
9th RD–Hortiz v. Hensley
10th RD–Matthews v. Travis
11th RD–Newlin v. Spiegelman
15th RD–Longhurst v. Lenzini
20th RD–Mayor v. Smyk
22nd RD–Mackenzie v. Miro v. Newton
29th RD–Paradee v. Kramer
30th RD–Gallo v. Outten
31st RD–Lynn v. Chick
37th RD–Rappa v. Briggs King
41st RD–Atkins v. Collins
Man, you get Republicans into a room with their donors and supporters and they really open up about their plans. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who is inexplicably considering a presidential bid for reasons passing any human understanding, said earlier this month in such a private gathering that “white men who are in male-only clubs are going to do great in my presidency.”
I’m sure, Senator. I’m sure.
Much like my predictions yesterday for all the state races, I will also predict all of the U.S. Senate races as well. Look for that on Monday. Here are some of the latest polls, inside…
Everyone knows who the President of the United States. But after that, it’s a crap shoot. A Jimmy Kimmel (I think, maybe it was a Jimmy Fallon skit) revealed that some people in New York don’t know who Joe Biden is. And we know moving down the electoral ladder, from governor to U.S. Senator to your representative in Congress to your state Senators and Representatives and your local councilpeople, that the smaller and more local a position, the less likely it is that people are going to know who they are. So the people who have the most power to affect your daily and everyday life, i.e. your county and city councilmen and women, your state representatives and senators, are strangers to you. But everyone knows Obama.
As a local political blog, we strive to keep you informed as to who the most important politicians to you are. But even we fail at that sometimes. National political news is easier to follow, because you know the players and the players want to be known, and you have many people wanting to tell you the story. If you want to follow local politics, your choices are limited, hard to find, and often lacking much substance. And its hard to follow events because the players are lesser known to you.
So to help in that, let’s start in talking about and predicting all of the offices up and down the ballot. And as you see below, I have included all the statewide and county level Row offices, even though I think some of them should not be elected offices (yeah, we shouldn’t be electing sheriffs, treasurers, recorders of deeds or wills, at any level of government).
Now, El Somnambulo has already posted his predictions for you. And he, along with our illustrious founder, Jason330, are very pessimistic, in their attitude, and in some of their predictions. I am a little more optimistic and realistic.
Some moderateish GOP Senator (who is actually a flaming conservative mouth breather but in today’s environment, he appears sane standing next to the likes of tea party), like Rob Portman, said recently that, for the GOP to win in 2016, it will have to govern between 2014 and 2016. There is just a little problem with that. Governing in a divided government means compromise with the President of the United States, unless of course your party controls enough seats to have veto-proof majorities. Even the rosiest scenario does not predict that for the GOP. And the GOP cannot impeach President Obama and Vice President Biden, for that will guarantee Democratic victory in 2016 everywhere, in every office, up and down the ballot. And yet, they are campaigning about stopping Obama if they should win the majority. You cannot stop Obama and then compromise with him.
First Read says Republicans have two big challenges to governing if they win control of both the House and Senate next week.
“One, after portraying Obama as either incompetent, ruthless, or both, how do Republicans sell any kind of deal with Obama back to their base? That’s the problem when your message, especially on the campaign trail, is entirely against the president. It makes cutting deals with him AFTER the election more difficult. Two, to pass legislation in the Senate, Mitch McConnell and Republicans will need to get 60 votes — and that means placating the GOP conservatives (including those running for president next year), the GOP moderates (Susan Collins and the folks up for re-election in 2016 like Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, etc.), as well as centrist Democrats (Joe Manchin, Angus King, etc.). That won’t be an easy task.”
And come inside for the Governor polls I promised yesterday…
“How can the national polls look so bad for Democrats (see the NBC/WSJ/Annenberg and Washington Post/ABC polls), but the competitive Senate contests all be within the margin of error? Here’s an answer for you: There are two different midterm environments taking place in the country a week before Election Day. The first is the nationwide one, where there does seem to be a wave building for Republicans and where the GOP has a huge enthusiasm advantage. The second election, however, is taking place in the top Senate and gubernatorial battlegrounds, where Democrats have spent a tremendous amount of money building field organizations and getting (as best they can) their side fired up.”
“This tale of two different midterm elections — not too dissimilar from what we saw in 2012 where the national and battleground polls didn’t match up — also helps explain why House Democrats are in trouble in states not holding competitive races like in California, Minnesota and New York (after all, embattled GOP Rep. Michael Grimm could very well win).”
We have a lot of Senate polls here today, and tons of Governor polls tomorrow…
E.J. Dionne Jr. on some underappreciated facts about the 2014 Midterms:
Underappreciated fact No. 1: The number of Democratic seats that are not in play this year.
In planning its effort to take control of the Senate, Republicans shrewdly launched challenges to Democrats in states that would not automatically be on a GOP target list. “Broadening the map” is wise when you’re in a strong position. Two of the states on that extended list, Colorado and Iowa, have paid off for Republicans. [...] Just as striking is how many Democrats seem to have nailed down races the Republicans had once hoped to make competitive. This has narrowed the GOP’s path to a majority. Among them: Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota, Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Rep. Gary Peters of Michigan, who is likely to retain Sen. Carl Levin’s seat. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia is also polling well, though he was always favored against former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire is in a tougher race with former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown, but she has led most of the way.
[U]nderappreciated fact No. 2: How important economic issues have been in shoring up the party’s incumbents and in giving life to Democratic challengers in Georgia, Kentucky and (a much longer shot) South Dakota. [E]ndangered Democrats are campaigning on a different set of national concerns related to economic worries. These include equal pay for women, relief for student loan recipients and a minimum-wage increase. Several Democrats, including Shaheen and Michelle Nunn in Georgia, have made an issue of opposing the outsourcing of U.S. jobs overseas.
[U]nderappreciated fact No. 3: Given Obama’s low approval ratings, Republicans could have been running away with this thing. They’re not, because they look more extreme and out of touch than they did four years ago.
“Voter frustration with members of Congress is currently even higher than it was 2010 or 2006. Fully 68% of registered voters say they do not want to see most members of Congress reelected – 14 points higher than in 2010 and 19 points higher than in 2006. And roughly a third (35%) say they do not want their own representative reelected, compared with 32% four years ago and 26% eight years ago.”
“Yet unlike in those elections, when a single party controlled both the House and Senate, anti-incumbent sentiment now crosses party lines. Republican and Democratic voters are about equally likely to oppose the reelection of most representatives and their own member of Congress.”
Politico reported yesterday evening that the lawsuit — which was supposed to challenge Obama’s executive orders regarding Obamacare (and appease the impeachment caucus in the lead-up to the midterm elections) — hasn’t actually been filed yet. Now isn’t that emblematic of everything the Republican Party stands. Lots of sound and fury signifying nothing of substance.
In an interview with the Jefferson Herald, King discussed a preliminary document produced during Catholic bishops’ recent synod that stated gays had “gifts” to offer the Christian community. [...] King was asked specifically whether he thought divorce or cohabitation were sins. The synod’s preliminary document had called for the church to respect divorced Catholics and stated that in regard to homosexual unions, “it has to be noted that there are cases in which mutual aid to the point of sacrifice constitutes a precious support in the life of the partners.”
“I think that I’ll not comment on that part,” King told the newspaper. “I’ll just say that what was a sin 2,000 years ago is a sin today, and people that were condemned to hell 2,000 years ago, I don’t expect to meet them should I make it to heaven. So let’s stick with that principle.”
With less than two weeks to go, the polling is coming fast and furious. But some pollsters are jumping ahead to get a preview of the 2016 Presidential. So before we dive into the pile of 2014 polls… from the The Fix:
“[A] new Washington Post-ABC News polling on the 2016 Republican presidential race makes one thing very clear: Every GOPer who has even a hint of ambition for national office is likely to run in two years time. Why? Because the field is remarkably frontrunner-less, meaning that every Ted, John and Rob can make a plausible case to activists and donors that they are going to eventually be the guy.”
And for that reason, Mitt Romney, the retread from 2008 and 2012, is the frontrunner. The Devil you know…
The difference between a responsible and ethical media, interested in journalistic integrity and facts, and a hyperbolic entertainment first enterprise, interesting only in ratings and thus profit, and facts and ethics must never interfere with that pursuit. CNN and Fox do not want to inform you. They want you only as a daily consumer of their content. They don’t care to inform you. In fact, they will misinform you if that is what makes you a daily consumer of their content. They will do anything and everything to scare you. It is why there are people in this country, many many many people, that are convinced ISIS is now invading the US. That Ebola is currently killing millions of Americans.
Driving home yesterday, I have CNN on my Sirius XM, and heard Wolf Blitzer breathlessly shout that OTTAWA IS ONLY AN HOUR’S DRIVE TO THE AMERICAN BORDER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fuck Wolf Blitzer.
I received another possible theory on how the Treasurer’s race is developing from a source who wants to remain anonymous. I think it is interesting and plausible enough to post and get everyone else’s opinion on it.
Simpler could totally win this, in part because of Dem overconfidence and lack of financial engagement.
He’s spent his independent money very smartly. He let the rich R’s attack Sher from the right so he could immediately claim the moderate ground.
Dems had been so focused on the the primary on their side, that they never forced Ken to stake out positions on divisive issues during the primary. So he can say whatever he wants now.
The belief that Dems can’t lose statewide mean nobody’s pinning him down now, either. And he’s got his own money and the relationship with WBOC to get up on TV, which really moves #s.
The counterbalancing financial forces on the D side like AFSCME and Labor don’t seem to take the Simpler threat seriously.
People will regret it.
A Federal District Judge upheld Puerto Rico’s marriage equality ban, saying that the U.S. Supreme Court’s 1971 decision in Baker v. Nelson, which banned same sex marriage, or more accurately says such bans do not violate the Constitution, has not been explicitly overturned. That argument has never worked before in the Circuit Courts or before the Supreme Court itself in the DOMA or Prop 8 Cases, but now, if the corresponding Circuit Court upholds this decision (which is unlikely but possible), then we will finally have a ruling from the Supreme Court.
Ian Millhiser expects the Puerto Rico decision will be reversed:
[W]hile Pérez-Giménez clearly holds very passionate views on the question of whether same-sex couples are entitled to the same rights as everyone else, his views are unlikely to persuade many of his fellow judges. It’s even possible that his opinion could ultimately wind up bolstering the case for marriage equality. That’s because his decision will appeal to the United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, a court dominated by Democratic appointees (although, it is worth noting that Pérez-Giménez was appointed to the bench by President Jimmy Carter). All four of the states that comprise the First Circuit — Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island — are already marriage equality states, so a decision out of a federal court in Puerto Rico is the only path to bring a marriage equality case before this circuit.
Given the makeup of the First Circuit, the overwhelming consensus among federal judges in favor of marriage equality, and the belligerent tone of Pérez-Giménez’s opinion, it is unlikely that his decision will be upheld on appeal.
I am voting for Barney, because I will never vote for any living or dead Republican to handle the state’s finances. Indeed, if you want to prove to me you are fiscally responsible, you cannot be a Republican. But I digress.
I guess his question is measuring my enthusiasm in voting for Barney, where 10 is voting for Obama in 2008 and 1 is voting for Carper/Carney at any time. I am at a 5.
Anyway, here is something humorous that Trey Paradee posted on Facebook….