Delaware Dem's Latest Posts
A Delaware Poll! Coons leads Wade by 15, and we got approval numbers on Obama, Biden, Carper and Markell
For some reason, the Republican-leaning Rasmussen polled little ole Delaware, and found Senator Chris Coons (D) leading Republican nominee Kevin Wade, 49% to 34%. A source who has access to some of the internals that are hidden behind a pay wall on Rasmussen’s site has sent me snapshots of the favorability ratings of Vice President Biden and Senator Carper, and the approval ratings of Governor Markell and President Obama. Unfortunately, my source did not have any further numbers for Senator Coons or GOP Nominee Kevin Wade. Come inside for the surprising numbers.
Charlie Cook: “Two things may be keeping Republican strategists up at night: money and the Democratic ground game. Perhaps the biggest untold story of this election is how so many Republican and conservative donors, at least those whose last name isn’t Koch, have kept their checkbooks relatively closed… Many Republican and conservative donors appear to be somewhat demoralized after 2012. They feel that they were misled about the GOP’s chances in both the presidential and senatorial races that year, and/or their money was not well spent. In short, they are giving less if at all, and it has put Republican candidates in a bind in a number of places.”
“Another reason things might not turn out for Republicans is if the highly touted Democratic Senate ground game comes together. Clearly the Obama campaign and Democratic allies had a superior voter-identification and get-out-the-vote operation two years ago… In midterm elections, if Democrats can crank up the turnout among young, female, and minority voters, then their chances of success this year increase.”
We have more polls painting a pretty happy picture for Dems.
The New York Times on what we politicos know to be true: the disaster in Kansas, both fiscally and for Republicans politically is a direct result of conservative tax policy. We have known it for years: cutting taxes does not, repeat, does not lead to increased revenue. Duh, it cuts revenue, meaning that the government has to cut spending. Conservatives are just fine with cutting spending. They do not care about their constituents. But unfortunately for them, their constituents vote.
“Although every statewide elected official in Kansas is a Republican and President Obama lost the state by more than 20 points in the last election,” Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) “proudly conservative policies have turned out to be so divisive and his tax cuts have generated such a drop in state revenue that they have caused even many Republicans to revolt[.]
“Projections put state budget shortfalls in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually, raising questions of whether the state can adequately fund education in particular. This has boosted the hopes of the Democratic candidate, Paul Davis, the State House minority leader, who has shot up in the polls even though he has offered few specifics about how he would run the state. Many disaffected Republicans might give Mr. Davis their vote because, if nothing else, he is not Mr. Brownback.”
Democrat Davis will win the Kansas governorship, and a possibly Democratic-leaning Independent will unseat a longtime incumbent GOP Senator, all because the Republicans finally cut taxes too much, and their own voters noticed they were getting screwed. Finally.
Politico reports that GOP Operatives are scared “that an ambitious Democratic turnout initiative will give the party a potentially significant 1- or 2-percentage point boost in some key states.” Damn. I was hoping they would sit back and enjoy the Republican leaning polls that have been giving prognosticators the giggles that the GOP has the Senate in the bag. But then again, the Democrats have done the job on the state level to maintain control. Nate Cohn:
“A few months ago, the Democratic path to a Senate majority looked long and arduous… But today the Democratic path to victory looks as clear as it has at any point this year. That path remains narrow, to be sure. The Democrats will probably still need to sweep those five fairly close races. Yet with just two months to go, the Democrats appear to have an advantage in four of them. And the Democrats have other opportunities that might give them more breathing room.”
“If Colorado and Michigan are penciled into the Democratic column, the Democrats would then need three more states to get to a majority. The Democrats have a fairly broad set of options for those states, but the likeliest possibility is that the election comes down to three states: Alaska, Iowa and North Carolina.”
Recent polling out of all three is positive for the Dems, plus we are leading in Louisiana and are competitive in Georgia, Arkansas and Kentucky. And let’s not forget Kansas.
Put this on your calendar now. I’ll be there. All of the candidates for offices in and for New Castle County will be invited, and I assume that includes offices from County Council and Recorder of Deeds to all the State House and Senate candidates. I wonder if it also includes Chris Coons and John Carney and the other statewide offices like Auditor and Treasurer.
Here is the state of play in the US Senate. The GOP needs to gain, or net, 6 seats to win 51 seats, which will be enough for a Republican majority. Remember, if they win just 50, chances are highly likely that Vice President Biden will have the tiebreaking vote and thus give the Dems the majority.
They have three seats already in their pocket: West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. They need three more. Their targets, and of course, the competitive races are Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado and Alaska.
The Dems have been doing well in Alaska and Colorado, so let’s assume we win those two races. The recent poll out of Iowa looks good for Braley, so let’s assume for now that the Dems retain that seat. That leaves North Carolina, which a recent poll paid for by the NRSC shows a tied race (which may mean that in actuality Hagan is leading), Arkansas and Louisiana. The GOP appears to have taken a consistent lead based on all the polls above in Arkansas, though it remains a toss up. In Louisiana, we have two polls showing both a Landreiu and a Cassidy win, so that is a toss up.
The GOP needs to win all three. And they need to do so while retaining all their seats. They seem to be doing a good job of that in Kentucky recently, with McConnell taking a consistent lead over the Democrat Grimes, but that is still a competitive race that could go either way. And the Dems still lead in Georgia.
Governor Markell just tweeted this:
An inappropriate photo was inadvertantly sent out earlier. We are looking into how this occurred but apologize to anyone who was offended.
— Gov. Jack Markell (@GovernorMarkell) September 4, 2014
You wanna see the photo? Come inside…
What concerns me more is this:
“As Ukrainian leaders warned on Monday of ‘a great war’ with Russia, NATO leaders meeting in Wales this week were expected to endorse their most concrete response yet to increased Russian military intervention in Ukraine: establishing a rapid-reaction force capable of deploying quickly to Eastern Europe[.] The new force of some 4,000 troops, capable of moving on 48 hours’ notice, will be supported with logistics and equipment pre-positioned in Eastern European countries closer to Russia, with an upgraded schedule of military exercises and deployments that are intended to make NATO’s commitment of collective defense more credible and enhance its deterrence.”