This is a straight up grab from the Rude Pundit. Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Rude Pundit feels your pain. He’d love, love, love for a real liberal to run for president. He says this pretty much every election, often supports whatever quixotic candidate is taking a shot this time until he (and, sadly, it’s only […]
HILLARYMENTUM!!!! A new national CNN/ORC survey released today shows Hillary Clinton laying waste to the entire Republican field. This poll is significant because it is the first poll post the announcement by Clinton that she is running for President.
Clinton 55, Rubio 41
Clinton 56, Bush 39
Clinton 58, Christie 39
Clinton 58, Paul 39
Clinton 58, Huckabee 37
Clinton 59, Walker 37
Clinton 60, Carson 36
Clinton 60, Cruz 36
These numbers are apocalyptic for the Republicans, especially when you consider my view that the most likely nominee in such a crowded field will be Ted Cruz. Why do I believe that? First, because in such a crowded field, it will be easy for the the winner of the primary to be a person who only getws 15-20% of the total primary vote. The candidates that inspire a small but fanatical following, like Ben Carson or Ted Cruz or even Mike Huckabee, may win these crowded primaries. And if they do that, they get all of the delegates. There is no proportional split of the delegates in Republican primaries as there is in the Democratic primaries. That means the winners would walk away with the vast majority of the delegates, and then, thus, the nomination. Second, some of the more palpatable candidates to the general electorate (Bush, Rubio, Walker, Graham) will base their campaigns on their electability, about how they the best candidate to take on Hillary in a general election. If polls continue to show Hillary trouncing every possible candidate by similar margins, then the electability argument is shit and you might as well go with who you really love and then maybe, just maybe, you’ll get lucky.
As usual, please sign. Here’s the petition’s wording.
The Smarter Balanced Assessment is the new state assessment based on the Common Core State Standards for Delaware. Many states have adopted this assessment as part of the Smarter Balanced Assessment Consortium, of which Delaware is a part. This consortium was approved by Governor Markell without any legislative approval.
Many parents in Delaware, as well as across the country, believe the Smarter Balanced Assessment, as well as the PARCC test in other states, is not an effective standardized test. Therefore, we are electing our Constitutional right to opt our children out of this assessment. We believe it is a parental right to choose the best educational outcome for our children. We also believe our children are not the property of the state. Many of us have experienced, at a minimum, vast confusion in regards to the opt out time period, which began in earnest in February of 2015, from our Governor, our Delaware Department of Education, our schools, and several administrators from our schools.
This legislation would help codify what is already our right, and would prevent the opted out students from adversely affecting the schools in Delaware. As well, this would also put all the school districts and charter schools in the state on the same level playing field based on a clear and distinct law.
So this poll attracted three times the number of votes as the average our other polls received, with a large majority being for strongly approve. Pay attention Geezer, that is the definition of freeping a poll. Freeping is a slang term going back to the early days of political blogs and online polls. There was this conservative site called Free Republic, and their denizens would be instructed to go out and find online polls and vote massively for the conservative option. They would FReep the poll, with the FR standing for Free Republic. Now the term applies across the board, generally. Obviously the call went out on Friday to Gordon loyalists to vote in this poll. Or, New Castle County residents are so deliriously happy with County Executive Gordon that they go out of their way to find online polls to indicate their approval.
So what do the results tell us:
67% approve of Gordon, 38% strongly.
29% disapprove, 22% strongly.
So either you love Gordon, or you hate him.
According to a new survey by the Pew Research Center, about two-thirds of Americans know that innocent people can be killed via death penalty sentences, yet still support the death penalty: The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted Mar. 25-29 among 1,500 adults, finds widespread doubts about how the death penalty is […]
It is fascinating to watch and of course Mark Halperin would be at the tip of the spear of this bullshit. According to him and his interlocutor here, Hillary Clinton is “terrified of the left”. Setting up this narrative of Clinton vs “The Left” is all about demonizing “The Left” and its ideas in a way that Halperin would never do for the Tea Party — who are demonstrably dangerous. Which might be why he feels that he can do this — there’s no downside to him for taking sides against “The Left”. He won’t be the only one, of course, but this is the first I’ve seen of this narrative in the wild this cycle.
Also of note is that the partisan polarization occurs even though Americans aren’t all that split on policies or ideology. Their partisanship is more tribal than anything — the result of an ill-informed electorate. “In order to have an understanding of the ideology of your party and the opposing party you have to have a lot of information,” and “that’s something that just doesn’t happen for the majority of the electorate,” said Westwood. “However, most people understand their side is good and the opposing side is bad, so it’s much easier for them to form these emotional opinions of political parties.”
This leads to a grim conclusion: The problem with politics isn’t Washington but the electorate. Members of Congress, most of whom come from safely gerrymandered districts, are behaving in a perfectly rational way when they avoid cooperation with the other party and instead try to build support within their own tribe.
It’s the Fox News problem. Back in the day, there was a balanced media that punished extremism. But for 20 years now, there has been one channel dedicated to ideological news. That has led to having half the electorate being ill informed and rejecting any compromise, because their news anchors rejected reality and any compromise by not punishing extremism. So now you have a political party that rejects reality and compromise and does not punish extremism. The electorate is part of it, but Milbank has to look at HOW the electorate got uninformed.
Nancy LeTourneau on the dynamics between Hillary and Obama as we come up to 2016, because, if you haven’t already noticed, Obama is no lame duck and he will not leave the stage until his time is up, and Hillary is not running from him, she is running towards him.
The modern-day precedent has typically been set by presidents who found themselves embroiled in scandals during their second term – which contributed to their lame-duckness (Reagan with Iran/Contra, Clinton with impeachment and Bush with Iraq/financial crisis). The dynamics will be very different this time around.
And so it should come as no surprise that – as Chozick, Haberman and Martin point out – Hillary Clinton has decided to run on President Obama’s record rather than triangulate between he and Republicans.
Rather than run from Mr. Obama, she intends to turn to him as one of her campaign’s most important allies and advocates — second only, perhaps, to her husband, the other president whose record will hover over her bid…
Nick Merrill, a spokesman for Mrs. Clinton, said that she “is proud of what was accomplished, both as President Obama’s partner on critical issues of national security, and on the progress made on the domestic front” and that “a campaign would be about laying out her own vision for tackling our toughest challenges.”
Given the current political dynamics, that is a very good move.
62% strongly disapprove of Insurance Commissoner Karen Weldin Stewart’s job performance. An additional 19% somewhat disapprove, giving us an overall disapproval score of 81%. This is no surprise. Delaware Liberal readers have never warmed to the elected official who puts the Insurance in Insurance Commissioner. That is what happens when you succeed a true consumer advocate in Matt Denn and then go on to coddle insurance companies. 14% approve of her job performance.
So finally, we have a poll on New Castle County Excecutive Tom Gordon. I have included Mr. Gordon for the first time, because I find it likely that the man may just be our next Governor. Let’s face it: Beau Biden is not going to run. So that means we will get a primary between Carney and Gordon (which will be a proxy war between Carper and Biden), and in that race, I have to put my money on Gordon. So let’s find out what our readers think of the job he is doing this time as County Executive.
A new Bloomberg poll finds Americans “are becoming more optimistic about the country’s economic prospects by several different measures. President Obama’s handling of the economy is being seen more positively than negatively for the first time in more than five years, 49% to 46% — his best number in this poll since September 2009.” But the survey “also reveals that about three-fourths of Democrats and independents, along with a majority of Republicans, say the gap is growing between the rich and everyone else — and a majority of women want the government to intervene to shrink it.”
This is horribly bad news for Republicans.
Even though I know there are unique and deserving circumstances, I can’t help but wonder how kids needing remedial courses are even accepted into college, especially University of Delaware which touts itself as highly selective. Okay, I don’t really wonder. Remedial courses are a cash cow for colleges so I understand why they offer them. Having parents/students pay for non-credit courses makes achieving a degree take longer than four years which adds another semester, or two, in tuition and room and board fees… Cha-Ching!
Quality over quantity this month. Or maybe I get more jaded as the year goes on. Good stuff’s still really good, though. Unless you’re Jason330…
So for the first time ever, Delaware Liberal readers are neutral or have no opinion on someone or something. 50% said that they were either neutral, had no opinion, or didn’t know enough about Republican Treasurer Ken Simpler to have an opinion on him one way or the other. And that is logical, since Treasurer Simpler has not done anything yet publicly, nor has he been the typical annoying and grating Republican. 35% approve whatever it is that Simpler is doing, 24% do so strongly. 15% disapprove.
Jason is always fond of London’s odd gambling market, which you can find a bookie to bet on everything it appears. And the reason he is fond of it is because, to him, it is a true indicator of polling intention, because people are betting their real money on whether a certain candidate can win. And sure, you can put money down on an outlier candidate with high odds, but that candidate better have a realistic shot for the nomination and the Presidency. For example, if you put money on Ben Carson, you are a fool.
Hillary is by far and away the odds on favorite. Some outfits have her as an 11/10 favorite, or 5/4, or 6/5, or even money at 1/1.
Jeb Bush is next in line as a 7/2 favorite, or 4/1, or 5/1. Marco Rubio’s odds fall in a range between 7/1 and 11/. Scott Walker’s odds similarly range from 7/1 to 12/1 (though most have him in the double digits behind Rubio.
64% of Delaware Liberal readers disapprove of Auditor Tom Wagner (R). 51% strongly disapprove of him. Only 28% approve. That he continues to get reelected will be one of the unanswerable mysteries of life. Kinda like how the Charcoal Pit is considered a good place to eat.
Here is the remaining schedule:
Wednesday — Treasurer Ken Simpler (R)
Thursday — Insurance Commissioner Karen Weldin Stewart (D)
Friday — New Castle County Executive Tom Gordon (D)
Treasurer Simpler’s results should be interesting. He’s hasn’t really done much yet to approve or disapprove of, and he is not said anything overtly annoying or overly Republican yet.
Division 1 is fully booked. (Me, Pandora, Steve Newton, Prop Joe and AQC) will be facing off for the big money.
Division 2 is filling up. (Delaware Dem vs…? You?)
Here is how it works. The league is open to 5 players per division. Division 2 is a $5.00 buy in (entertainment only/winner take all). Each player will each draft 4 candidates from the list compiled by Delaware Dem. Your team will accrue points based on the number of days they are in the race for the Republican nomination. So, for example, Rand Paul announced on April 7th. If he makes it all the way to the convention (July 18 2016) he will have been in the race for 469 days, netting his team 469 points. If John Bolton never enters the race, he will have been in the race for 0 days netting his team zero points.
If Division 2 fills up over the weekend, we’ll try to have the draft on Monday via live chat or something.
Who is in?