Can Delaware Dems Repeat 2018 Success in 2020? Part 1

Filed in National by on December 12, 2018

With the help of the crazy man-baby in the White House, Delaware Democrats TROUNCED Delaware Republicans in 2018. But can they keep the momentum rolling in 2020? While some factors point to continuing Dem pickups, other factors will make it difficult for Dems to keep the flywheel turning.

Making pickups an uphill fight for Democrats is the fact that there are far fewer targets of opportunity for Democrats in 2020. In New Castle County only Michael Smith, Jeff Spiegelman, Kevin Hensley, and Mike Ramone remain in the house.

Ramone has been exposed for the fraud and crumb-bumb that he is. I’d rate him as beatable. After that, it looks like difficult terrain for Dems. Michael Smith won a squeaker thanks to DEGOP’s racist sign campaign, but this time he’ll be able to run as an “I’m not THAT kind of Republican” incumbent. Hensley should be beatable, but 9th RD Dems have never demonstrated an ability to get their shit together. Spiegelman got 65% against Paul Thornburg, but that district is changing, and if Thornburg sounded like he intended to keep his yard signs within reach. Outside of New Castle, only Steve Smyk got a scare in 2018, as John Bucchioni put together a good campaign.

The remaining Republicans in the house must be challenged, but the districts become increasingly dominated by Scott Walker voters toward the west.

In the Senate, Cathy Cloutier is up this round. Is she even running again? If no, that’s a D pickup. If yes, that still might be a Dem pickup. The only other Republican in a Dem Senate District is Anthony Delcollo who came in thanks to Trump coattails and Blevins fatigue in 2016. That should be a Dem pickup, as Democrats have already indicated that Delcollo is this year’s Lavelle. But incumbency is a high mountain to climb. Lawson is also up. He didn’t have an opponent in 2016. He will in 2020 and that might be a sleeper race to watch, as the Dems are showing strength in the Dover to Smyrna corridor.

Are there any R’s mentioned so far who can distance themselves from Trump? That might make it tougher for Dems to notch some pickups. Democratic leadership should be putting all of these people in very tough voting spots over the next two years. I doubt they will. Weak Democratic leadership is good news for R’s trying to hold in in 2020.

So, Dems only have one slam-dunk pickup in 2020 (Cloutier SD5), but it is going to be a presidential year and some other factors, can be viewed as predicting another blue wave in Delaware in 2020. More on that next time.

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Jason330 is a deep cover double agent working for the GOP. Don't tell anybody.

Comments (12)

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  1. Cloutier is beatable if she runs again. Eminently beatable. The seat flips if she doesn’t. My choice either way? Sean Matthews. BTW, I think he WINS either way.

    Delcollo is the favorite to win reelection–IF he runs for reelection rather than something else. He shows up at meetings, and people in the district who I talk to tell me he is down to earth and very engaging. Even in a D year, I think he can win reelection. But he might be ready to challenge the underwhelming John Carney, especially since there’s no future in that moribund R caucus. I might even vote for him.

    Ennis is not running again. It should be a D hold, but it’s not a guarantee. Please just come up with someone other than Lumpy Carson.

    Oh, and not to tease anyone (he lied), another D senator is almost certain to retire and this senator’s rumored choice as successor is–someone we reallyreally like. You have been teased.

    • jason330 says:

      Dem’s in the Ennis SD should have a decent candidate on the bench. If they do, I don’t know who it is.

      I could see Kevin Hensley running for that open seat. Which should mean a D pick-up in the 9th, but who knows given the Dems history of uselessness in the 9th.

      • TonyDem says:

        I think it’s fairly likely that we see Jason Hortiz get back into a race in 2020. Whether it’s senate , rep or council don’t know but have heard he’s considering another run. Came close in a gop year in 2014, perhaps he benefits from a dem surge next cycle. He still has pretty solid name recognition down here.

    • Harold says:

      I assume it’s Sokola. Not sure who the successor would be though.

  2. bamboozer says:

    Greetings from the Smyrna/Dover corridor, big changes are indeed coming here. The hicks on the back roads are dying off (at last) and are being replaced by thousands of new residents. As noted a good Ennis replacement will like gain his seat, the question remains who it will be. As for Speigleman he will be hard to beat, he’s been effective at selling himself to local voters.

  3. Beach says:

    From the looks of Delcollo’s turnout per ED, it appears he actually had a bona fide field plan to target and id voters. Despite that, now that the district is in the Dem’s crosshairs, I don’t see anyway how he’ll be able to dig up the manpower to compete in the field. His legal work for insurance companies isn’t the best optics for him, too. Can’t wait to see who steps up to run against him!