Comment Rescue – Who will be the Dem Nominee? We Don’t Know Who, But We Know How

Filed in National by on December 5, 2018 31 Comments

This is an important insight from Alby.

If that’s where Wall Street puts its money, (Joe Biden) be a contender. I’d say the odds are against it, but it’s not impossible. If he catches fire with the public, they’ll back him. Who else have they got? Gillibrand and Booker. Maybe Harris. They’re not going to sit it out.

For the past few cycles, we have had two money races. These races define the nominating contest even in the absence of any candidates. One is the race for Wall Street money described above by Alby. The other is the race for small donor money.

Howard Dean was the first to identify small donors as a possible route to the nomination. Wall Street identified the threat and used the media to execute an effective takedown. Obama knitted the two funding sources together, but only after he beat Clinton. Clinton won the Wall Street money race before the starter’s pistol fired but left small donors colder than cold.

To win the Democratic nomination and the Presidency, we’ll need a candidate that wins the small donor money race, thereby creating an actual base of voters, and manages to neutralize or co-opt the Wall Street money.

About the Author ()

Jason330 is a deep cover double agent working for the GOP. Don't tell anybody.

Comments (31)

Trackback URL | Comments RSS Feed

  1. delacrat says:

    To win both the small-donor and Wall St. races is to sell oneself to two potential masters. The former to be dumped after winning the nomination as demonstrated by the Hope n’ Change artist.

  2. RE Vanella says:

    How about someone who has good politics and speaks like this:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ggaaarrryyyy/status/1070298360937095168

  3. jason330 says:

    I’d love to hear an American Democrat who is good at politics speak like that. I could picture Biden getting his hackles up, but probably not on the topic of capitalism shitting the bed.

  4. Here’s my first Dream Ticket of 2020: O’Rourke/Klobuchar.

    I agree with Al that climate change is THE most urgent issue. O’Rourke checks those boxes:

    https://thinkprogress.org/texas-senate-beto-ourourke-cruz-climate-change-debate-4c72e8fee2cd/

    He can raise gobs of small donor cash, he can drive D voter turnout, he can even flip Texas.

    Klobuchar is the perfect geographic counterbalance, and will help in those key midwestern states. Her legal background will be especially effective if Trump runs again (I don’t think he will).

    Oh, and one more thing. The D governor of Minnesota can right a wrong by naming Al Franken to fill out Klobuchar’s term.

  5. Alby says:

    To be clear, I was referring to Beto, not Uncle Joe, who has always gotten the fish-eye from the oligarchs. I think they’ll back Booker and Gillibrand, who already have performed loyal service for them.

  6. RE Vanella says:

    I’m going to leave these here ever time his name is mentioned.

    https://www.currentaffairs.org/2018/12/what-does-beto-orourke-actually-stand-for

    Also, check out the vote to kill Dem legislation that would have restricted offshore drilling. (ATTENTION CLIMATE ISSUE PEOPLE.)

    http://scorecard.lcv.org/roll-call-vote/2016-447-offshore-drilling-eastern-gulf-mexico

    • Alby says:

      There’s a difference in what you do as a House member versus as a statewide or national candidate. Ask Kirsten Gillibrand, who is my only “no way” Democrat so far. There’s a reason why only one sitting House member has ever been elected president. Can you guess who without looking it up?

      I have no opinion on who the Democratic candidate should be, because I don’t know where any of them but Bernie intend to collect their funding. All I said about Bernie’s age was it wasn’t ideal. It doesn’t rule him out, but it’s a negative. Period. Deny it all you want, the comment traffic alone should convince you of its truth.

      I have no strong opinion about Beto. I followed the race only because I hoped Cruz would lose, and my only real point of contact was his speech about the NFL protests, which showed an ability to speak with conviction to a hostile audience in an apparently extemporaneous manner, along with — again, you’re going to have to face facts — a certain charisma. (He wasn’t an actor, but he played in a punk band, which isn’t much different, so he’s comfortable under the stage lights).

      Anyone who picks their horse on policy stances will avoid him, but the vast majority of people who will vote for the Democratic candidate in 2020 will do so out of emotion, not reason. This is Obama all over again, and IMO the most effective way to talk progressive-leaning voters out of Beto is to remind them that policy-wise, Obama didn’t work out that great.

      Winning candidates inspire passion. Here are a few names that have failed to inspire any: Mondale. Dukakis. Gore. Kerry. All espoused policy positions that have broad public support — Democrats always do — and all elicited yawns from couch-sitters.

      If you want to derail O’Rourke, you’d better find someone who has his charisma.

  7. RE Vanella says:

    I made a pledge that I wouldn’t say anything about these people until after the election. Obviously Beto is in every way superior to Lizard Cruz. But that’s done now.

    Regardless of what Dave says, now is the time to make these arguments. So I’m making them.

  8. Alby says:

    @REV: Regardless of what you think of Dave’s politics, I’m in total agreement with him on disunity being the biggest threat to the 2020 Democratic nominee. I’d go further and say it’s the only threat.

    Here you are trashing Beto, while Cassandra at Blue Delaware has declared “Never Bernie,” meaning two of the top three names people give pollsters draw strong opposition from non-supporters. The top choice? Uncle Joe, who might do well just because he doesn’t seem to antagonize people as much:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/419455-beto-orourke-seen-as-top-contender-in-2020-race-for-white-house-poll

    Polls largely reflect name recognition at this point, but as Delaware Dem noted, Warren’s support lags her name recognition by a lot.

    • RE Vanella says:

      Pointing out facts is trashing Beto.

      • Alby says:

        No, your declaration that you oppose him is. “Hard no,” wasn’t it?

        C’mon, you’re just quibbling now.

        • RE Vanella says:

          Ok, you fucking pedant. I will never consider voting for Beto unless he is the Democratic nominee. And then I’ll weigh my options.

          The fucking fact I have to spell it out for you should be embarrassing.

          Also, this goes for every candidate except Bernie. So don’t fucking ask me again.

          Is this clear enough? Is anyone still confused?

          • Alby says:

            You don’t need to spell it out for me. I’m writing what I have because when you talk that forcefully, it has the effect of making the Daves out there nervous. I’m trying to soften your approach, not tell you you’re wrong.

            I haven’t asked you anything so far, just made observations intended to temper what sounds like absolutism.

            • RE Vanella says:

              Dave should be nervous. Very nervous. I’m nervous too. Because a lot of people who fucked up in 2016 have learned absolutely zero.

              So yeah, I’m nervous. Feel me?

              Democrats who say never Bernie are the scum of the fucking earth. The guy’s the most progressive. Has had the same positions for 40 – 50 years. Totally consistent and clear. Builds solidarity with leftists world wide and seems to be the only potential candidate who understands class struggle the way, say, Fred Hampton understood it.

              This Never Bernie people are resentful babies and “policy wonks” who accomplished very little in politics and life and after their royal fuck up in 2016 I won’t be coddling them any longer.

              As I’ve come to enjoy the construction of this particular insult, they can all simultaneously choke on my scrote.

  9. RE Vanella says:

    I like Dave’s politics.

    Disunity is always a threat in any political enterprise. Known risk.

    When I reach the river I decide how to cross. I voted for Clinton in 2016.

    If, after Bernie is the Democratic nominee, Cassandra doesn’t vote for him, that her decision. (I bet she votes for the Democratic nominee, just like I did.)

  10. RE Vanella says:

    Here’s what’s funny to me. Here we are having an acid flashback. Same conversation. Same issue. Yet I’m suppose to listen to the people who were wrong. Not only that… the people who were wrong still never admitted it. Never apologized.

    On top of which these fucking idiots cling on like grim death to stupid theories about Russia and James Comey and Jill Stein and Susan Sarandon. Rather than just coming to terms with the simplest explanation. Democrats nominated the wrong candidate.

    So, fine, I’ll have the conversation again. But if you think I’m going to pretend that 2016 didn’t happen, and if you think I give one flying fuck-all that the same tired know-it-alls are making the same arguments, I will not and I do not.

    • Alby says:

      It’s not about listening to them. It’s about acknowledging that they represent a powerful bloc in how the 2020 election goes.

      If people all picked their candidates for the same reason, you wouldn’t have 25 candidates. And by this summer you won’t. Unless you follow presidential politics at the fund-raising level, you won’t know who’s winnowed out until then.

      Bernie knows where his cash will come from — little people, and a lot of them. I don’t see anyone else out there who can raise the necessary money that way, except O’Rourke, who generated his own national mailing list by running against Cruz.

      So the others will be jockeying for money from Wall Street, Hollywood and Silicon Valley. Harris, Booker and Gillibrand are best positioned for that, but I don’t seeing any of them setting the public on fire yet, if ever.

      My early favorite for least effective objection to Bernie isn’t his age, it’s the concern that he’ll be smeared as a socialist. In truth, anyone who gets the nomination will be smeared as a socialist. Get over it, people.

  11. RE Vanella says:

    “We have to understand very clearly that there’s a man in our community called a capitalist. Sometimes he’s Black and sometimes he’s white. But that man has to be driven out of our community because anybody who comes into the community to make profit off of people by exploiting them can be defined as a capitalist.”

    Fred Hampton

    People want to “smear” socialist. Fine. Now’s the time to have that argument.

    Opioid Crisis
    Central American Refugees
    Crumbling infrastructure
    Poor schools
    Poor health care outcome
    The abandoned Rust Belt and Midwest
    The proxy wars in the Middle East

    Unchecked, undeterred capitalism.

    If we’re scared to have this conversation we’ve already lost. I’m not scared.

    • Alby says:

      It’s important to define goals at the outset so the enemy can’t define you first. But it’s also important to state it in terms that grab attention. The Square Deal?

      Four sides to the square: Health care. Infrastructure. Climate change. Student debt.

  12. RE Vanella says:

    Green New Deal

    • Alby says:

      That’s nice, but green doesn’t carry broad appeal. While it’s my priority, I recognize the reality.

      If people were inclined to vote based on climate change they’d be paying more attention to it in general. They aren’t, and I’m under no delusion that they’ll be much more receptive within the next 13 months, when Trump will dominate all news.

      • ben says:

        I think people pay attention, but no politician has offered a real road-map to get behind.
        Someone has to figure out how to impress upon people that we MUST take complete action in 10 years or we’re totally fucked… and NOT end up sounding like a street corner shouter.
        There also needs to be a path laid out other than (although i like it) fire all fossil fuel workers immediately and spend billions to train them to work ion other fields. Who is going to campaign on passing a law mandating only electric cars, and the follow up mandate of diverting all federal funds possible to solar and wind farm construction?
        Some have to be making the calculations… specifically young members who will still be serving when shit really goes pear-shaped in 30 years or so… how to campaign on DEALING with the fall of civilization.

        • Alby says:

          A carbon tax, like most blunt instruments, is crude but effective.

          I’m also in favor of an excise tax on sugar, like those we have on alcohol and tobacco, and a financial-transaction tax. Add in revenue on legalized marijuana, money saved on cuts to the defense budget and federal prison system, and growth in wage taxes from infrastructure jobs and you’re well on your way to paying for things like broader Medicare/Medicaid coverage and student debt relief.

          On your point about green jobs, read the link below. It points out that those arguments have not swayed Californians.

          On my point about infrastructure jobs, what the French riots show me is that even that country’s public transit, excellent by our standards, can’t cope with a broadly scattered population, which is exactly what the US experience with Amtrak has shown. A fuel tax, by making trucking more expensive, makes rail freight more competitive, at lower emissions per ton than most trucking or air transport. Even when railroads were profitable, passengers didn’t pay the full cost of their transport — commercial shipping, as the saying goes, paid the freight.

  13. Alby says:

    This guy thinks the Green New Deal can have that appeal, even though his examples show that getting public buy-in won’t be easy:

    https://www.salon.com/2018/12/05/yellow-vest-protesters-in-paris-and-green-new-dealers-at-home-future-comrades/

  14. mouse says:

    If we had moral motivated articulate leadership, I think it could carry a lot of support. The dying red states sure could use an infusion of clean energy and products jobs

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *