Vote Analysis — Delaware Treasurer’s Race

Filed in National by on November 11, 2018

I’m just going to cut & pasting this whole thing including the first comment. You should probs comment over at BlueDE if you are inclined ot comment.

BY CASSANDRAM
COMMENTS 2
 

Courtesy of Nicholas Schrieber.

2018 Treasurer General
2014 Treasurer Analysis

I’m glad he included the 2014 race between Sean Barney and Ken Simpler for comparison. The differences between 2014 and now:

  1. 2018 shows a pretty sharp strengthening of NCC D votes for Treasurer, and an emerging Blue corridor around Smryna to Dover.  This map reminded me of early 2000-era electoral maps of Virginia when you could see the start of the I95 Blue Corridor there.
  2. In 2014, Barney was strongest in eastern NCCo and (it looks) around Dover.  But he captured enough votes south of the canal to keep his overall vote total fairly competitive.  This cycle, a really strong D showing in NCCO — including MOT; plus an expanded D showing in the Smryna-Dover; added to some of the votes Barney got (clearly not all) in Sussex was enough.
  3. In NCCo we heard plenty of reports that Rs were planning to vote a straight D ticket, except for Simpler and that looks like what happened.

It is really interesting how these two races flipped their numbers, but it certainly looks like Davis was able to capture the Blue Wave here.

What do you think?

 

  1. bamboozer
    November 10, 2018

    I agree a “Blue Corridor” is emerging in the Smyrna-Dover area, believe it’s due to the influx of new residents from surrounding blue states and the decline of the crusty/dusty old farts in the bungalows on the back roads. Also believe this trend should dramatically reduce fears that Bruce Ennis will be replaced by a Republican. I live just north of Smyrna, things are changing rapidly here.

     

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Comments (9)

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  1. Beach says:
    November 11, 2018 at 10:13 am

    My hypothesis is that the local primaries were a huge help for the Treasurer’s race, too. I’d like to the difference between 2014 and 2018 in the areas that did / didn’t have primaries.
    Regarding Bruce Ennis, his district is extraordinarily vulnerable for a progressive to win. If someone out there is interested in running, contact me.

  2. Anonymous says:
    November 12, 2018 at 10:34 pm

    Simpler was too busy planning to run for governor to do the job of treasurer. He didn’t have any accomplishments to run on. That made his incumbency useless.

  3. jason330 says:
    November 12, 2018 at 11:22 pm

    I don’t know. He just sucked as a candidate. He only beat Sean Barney thanks to a cancer named Clinton at the top of the ticket.

  4. Anonymous says:
    November 13, 2018 at 11:38 am

    Simpler’s farewell address. https://delawarestatenews.net/opinion/simpler-serving-as-treasurer-was-honor-and-a-privilege

    • Beach says:
      November 13, 2018 at 11:57 am

      It sounds like he’s blaming the Blue Wave without considering the reasons for the existence of the Blue Wave.

    • Alby says:
      November 13, 2018 at 11:58 am

      Since the GA castrated Flowers, it’s a ceremonial position with no authority and no real duties. But carry on.

  5. Realist says:
    November 13, 2018 at 11:50 am

    The “cancer” in 2014 was Chip Flowers, and he didn’t even make it past the primary.

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