El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You: Part I

There will be some sort of a blue wave in Delaware. Only question is: How much of a Blue Wave? I don’t know. But I feel real good about my predictions, which factor in a bit of a blue wave, but not a blue tsunami. I think there will be a blue wave largely b/c it would be well-nigh impossible for the Rethuglicans to conjure up a less appealing statewide slate.  I think it will have down-ballot consequences, especially in New Castle County. In fact, I think that suburban NCC voters will find Trump’s brand of Rethuglicanism particularly rethugnant, and will vote accordingly.

In order to artificially build suspense for tomorrow’s climax, I start today with all the competitive House races and down-ballot contests. Let’s get to it:

The following House Districts have no major party matchups: RD’s 1-5, 13, 15 (there is a libertarian ‘challenging’ Val Longhurst here), 17, 18, 23, 27 (a Libertarian is on the ballot against Earl Jaques), 35, 37, 39 and 40. Meaning, before the results are in, the D’s have an 11-4 edge in the House.

RD 6: Kids, you’re gonna notice a theme here. When it comes to R recruiting, the occupation of choice is ‘realtor’. Has been for a few cycles now. As those in real estate know, there are realtors and ‘realtors’, the latter being dabblers who kind-of play at it and hope that, when one of their family members moves or dies, they get the listing.  Jeff Olmstead appears to be a legit realtor, but it’s his misfortune to lead off this parade of realtors. Well, not really. Two R realtors are already in the General Assembly: Kevin Hensley and Ruth Briggs King. Olmstead is running against incumbent Debra Heffernan. I remember him as a really good tennis player back in my ‘ute.  He’s at least a credible candidate. And the registration numbers are not as daunting for an R in this district than in others.  But Heffernan got 63% of the vote in her last competitive election back in 2014, and I’ve seen nothing to suggest she’s in trouble. Olmstead could have a future, but not in the anti-Trump environment of 2018. 58-42 Heffernan.

RD 7: What a disappointment. Chamber lackey Bryon Short retires (can a Carney appointment be far behind?), and we end up with this uninspiring matchup. Ray Seigfried won a 5-way D primary with only 28.7% of the vote. Two progressive candidates, Joe Daigle and Larry Lambert, split over 50% of the votes. I personally like Ray. But, during his campaign, he betrayed next to no interest in the issues he will consider in Dover. With a background as an executive with Christiana Care, and a history of being a Charter Schools advocate, I’m not looking for much from Ray in Dover except quality constituent service. His opponent? Stop me if you’ve heard this (just) before. Eric Braunstein. A realtor. While I’ve seen plenty of his campaign signs, I’ve never seen one of his real estate signs. Heir to whatever remains of the Braunstein’s Department Store fortune. Former Navy pilot. Just got his lit piece delivered to my door. It’s depressingly full of boilerplate. I blame Joe Daigle. It was his race to lose, and he chose not to run a race that remotely resembled a winning one. Seigfried will win, probably about 58-42. I never imagined that Bryon Short’s successor would be worse than Bryon Short. I was wrong.

RD 8: Sometimes, we should just be grateful for meager gifts.  The name ‘Zitofsky’ is such a gift. Thank you, Dan. Quin Johnson 70%, Polish Acne Cream 30%. BTW, (I can’t make this stuff up), Zitofsky calls himself a ‘Delaware-based real estate investor and (wait for it) passive wealth creation expert’. ‘Passive wealth creation expert’ would be my chosen career path if I had it to do all over again. Guess the gifts aren’t so meager after all.

RD 9: Someone, I think it was a supporter of Monique Johns, wrote that she wouldn’t lose b/c she got caught taking her opponent’s lit. That someone was correct. Monique Johns will lose b/c she’s not a good candidate. Perhaps not even as good a candidate as she was two years ago, which wasn’t so good. She didn’t break 40% against Rep. Kevin Hensley then. She may or may not break 40% this time. But she’s not coming close to winning. I guess she lines up well with the D primary electorate, but is overmatched in a general election contest. I’m going 63-37 Hensley. Maybe Monique should move to Wilmington where her touchy-feely crap appears to be in vogue (*cough* Sherry Dorsey Walker *cough*).

RD 10: Erin Weinner‘s campaign appears to solely be about proclaiming victimhood over sign vandalism. And other things. Her entire webpage is an ode to victimhood. Disease, lost jobs, you name it. (Erin, feeling sorry for someone is not the same as wanting to vote for someone. Just sayin’.)  Since Sean Matthews needs no outside help to win reelection, and since he’s hardly the type to resort to such a tactic, any sign vandalism that may have occurred should be attributed to–vandals. Or, hey, if you’re into false flag theories, feel free to believe them. Weinner is not beating one of Delaware best legislators. 63-37 Matthews.

RD 11: Kids, whenever a candidacy is filed after the deadline, it means that the party of choice found someone to fill a vacancy on the ballot. Such is the case with D candidate Paul Thornburg, who filed on Aug. 17 to challenge incumbent Rep. Jeff Spiegelman in this Clayton/Townsend area district.  As an official with the local Teamsters, Thornburg doesn’t exactly fit the optimal profile for this district. I’ll say 62-38 Spiegelman.

RD 12: Campaigns matter. Most of the time. They especially matter when one candidate runs relentlessly, while the other candidate does next to nothing. The question here is whether long-time incumbent Deborah Hudson frittered away her decided advantage over Krista Griffith. I mean, it’s one thing to run an uninspired campaign or to struggle with a rusty campaign apparatus. It’s another to go into hibernation as if you’ve already got another gig lined up, which is what Hudson did. OTOH, the 12th is the only NCC RD with an R registration edge, although it’s become a nominal edge.  I think the electorate skews a bit more R than the registration. However, registration does not equal turnout. I believe that this part of NCC is particularly ripe for a Trump backlash (see Lavelle, Greg). My prediction? Campaigns count, barely. Griffith edges Hudson, 50.5 to 49.5.

RD 14:  Of course, Schwartzkopf will win. He beat James DeMartino by a 63-36 margin in 2016.  In this rematch, what I want to see is whether the margin shrinks appreciably. His machinations on behalf of Park City Kathy, contrasted with his lack of support for Dave Baker in his race against Ernie Lopez, may have, make that, should have, pissed off more of his constituents. And, you know, DeMartino certainly has some legit bona fides.  I think that Pete’s adventurism will have some impact. Call it 60-40 for Speaker Pete. A significantly narrower margin would suggest that Pete has some fence-mending to do for 2020. Not impossible.

RD 16: I guess that this is technically a contest. One D, one R, for the seat being vacated by Rep. J. J. Johnson.  D candidate Franklin Cooke handily won a three-way primary. His opponent is one Albert John Ament. He is 72 years old and…that’s about all I’ve got. He’s not running a campaign, which is just the way the R’s want it. This district contains a pretty decent chunk of the City of Wilmington. Turnout is not something the R’s want to encourage in this overwhelmingly D district. 80-20, Cooke.

RD 19: Realtor/two-time loser Jim Startzman returns for his third loss to incumbent and public education stalwart D Rep. Kim Williams. I suspect he will continue to run until/unless listings pick up. Which may be difficult when you associate yourself with the ongoing criminal enterprise known as the Republican Party.  I guess it’s at least one way to get your name on some signs. While Williams has some rough edges and is not especially beloved in all progressive circles, she’s likely to at least repeat 2016’s 63-37 margin in this solid-blue working-class district previously represented by former Speaker Bob Gilligan.

RD 20: If you’re running against an ex-cop in Trump Country, there’s no point in running a ‘traditional’ campaign that might get you, say, 35% of the vote. To his credit, John Bucchioni has not run a typical campaign.  In fact, if I had to describe it in a single word, the word would be ‘delightful’.  His website is fun to surf, and I recommend that you do so.  He doesn’t pretend to be someone he’s not, and he certainly has the background to be a quality legislator. Both as a teacher and as a businessman. And he may be the first politician I can recall who listed ‘Fast Internet’ as one of his campaign issues. I’d love to have a few beers with this guy. Did I mention he was running against an ex-cop? Steve Smyk. You already know what Smyk rhymes with. I think that Jack outperforms 35%.  But Smyk prevails, 58-42. Sometimes, districts are destiny.

RD 21: One of the most hotly-contested races in the state. Incumbent Michael Ramone,  who has not previously faced a serious challenge for reelection, largely due to interference run by Democrats, faces Stephanie Barry,  who likely lost her position with PAWS Delaware due to an ‘innocuous’ query from the ethically-challenged Ramone. I consider Ramone to be oleaginous slime, which makes him right at home in the General Assembly. I would love to see him defeated. However, Barry got a late start on her candidacy, and Ramone still enjoys a ‘nice guy’ image, which is far from the truth. I think Ramone ekes this one out, 51-49, but loses two years from now, hopefully to the same Stephanie Barry.  As to any of the putative Democrats who backed Ramone?: You’re dead to me.

RD 22: Another tough one. If DL paid me the big bucks, races like this would be why they paid me the big bucks. Let’s put it right out there: Rethugs are trying to scare people with Guillermina Gonzalez‘ ethnicity. In one of the worst pieces the News-Journal has written in recent memory, this, at least rang true:

While campaign trickery might be rampant online, some folks still prefer good-old, boots-on-the-ground high jinx.

Take for example the blue political signs that reportedly are popping up around Centreville and Hockessin.

“Make Delaware a Sanctuary State,” they read. “Vote Democrat.”

Voters might easily miss the small print that says the road signs are paid for by the 12th RRDC, a PAC connected to the 12th Republican Representative District Committee. (It’s not ‘connected’ to the 12th R District Committee, it is the PAC of the 12th R District Committee. Deborah Hudson’s PAC is spreading this resentment with their dollars.)

It just so happens that Laura Sturgeon and Guillermina Gonzalez, the Democratic candidates for the Fourth Senate and 22nd House seats respectively, are both Latina.

Gonzalez, who grew up in Mexico, said the intent is clearly to create division.

BTW, Greg Lavelle claims to never have seen the signs and had no comment. Maybe he isn’t campaigning in those portions of his district.

But, I digress.

Michael Smith, who is Gonzalez’ opponent, has criticized the signs, the only Republican to do so. By all accounts, both candidates have run strong races, and Smith has an outstanding sign program.  In the race to succeed long-time legislator Joe Miro, I think that old habits will die hard. I give Smith the edge, 52-48, but this district will continue to skew more D moving forward.

RD 24: Incumbent D Rep. Ed Osienski faces a Name On The Ballot.  Mr. ‘Back-To-Basics’ himself, Bill Dilks.  Fun facts: He was an organist. His son has a black belt in Tae Kwon Do, and has been ‘studing’ piano for 5 years. Students stude. Osienski, 80-20.

RD 25: Incumbent D John Kowalko faces Bryan Rash, who makes the following pledge:

Because he is well-mannered, good-natured, and a polished small business professional, Bryan will dignify our District with fresh leadership.

Not if he doesn’t win, he won’t. He won’t. Kowalko, 68-32.

RD 26: D Rep. John Viola is ripe to be defeated. However, that defeat will have to be in a primary, not in a general election, especially not this year. Not in a district with a strong D majority of registered voters.  9275 D out of 16K registered voters.  For you completists out there, his opponent is one Justin Cruice, and he has two wonderful children.  When it comes to political brochures, all children are wonderful. Shout-out to the photographer. Great job catching the dog in mid-lick. Take it from someone who ran and lost: That photo alone will prove to have been worth the race.   80-20, Viola.  Will somebody please primary his sorry ass?

RD 28: Perhaps I’ve been unfair to Ol’ Lumpy over the years. He may not be the dumbest legislator in Dover.  I haven’t spent enough ‘quality’ time with the Lower Slower crowd to be sure. For now, he’s just the dumbest that I’ve met. At least he doesn’t pretend to be anything but dumb. Which is just the way his constituents like it. (Memo to self: Don’t move to the 28th.)  His opponent, Charlotte Middleton, appears to be the right candidate running in the wrong district.  A surgical nurse with a distinguished career. She’s running against the ‘old boy’s network’. Trouble is, outside of Lower Slower, ain’t no greater ‘old boys network’ district than the 28th.  Two more years of Happy Hours on lobbyists’ tabs for Lumpy Carson, 61-39.

RD 29: This is the Kent County district being vacated by Rep. Trey Paradee, who is running for State Senate. It could be a competitive district, 7892 D, 5393 R, and 4531 I.  Paradee got about 63% of the vote in 2016 and 57% in 2014. Bill Bush is the D candidate. I know him as the guy on the Del-Tech board who made life miserable for the person first appointed to succeed Lonnie George. He was in the tank for Mark Brainard. His father was a judge in Kent County for 26 years. He has also been a House attorney, so he is as politically-connected as they come. His opponent is Robin Hayes,who is a dietitian/nutritionist. She cites ‘Out Of Control Regulation’ as her #1 issue. Anyway, as of the 30-day reporting period, Bush had raised over $55K and had $11K on hand. Hayes had raised over $16K and had $2K on hand. I’m going with the smart money. Bush 58-42. He will probably be a power-broker in that caucus, and not in a good way.

RD 30: Another open seat in Kent County, occasioned by the retirement of R State Rep. Bobby Outten.  I give Rep. Outten credit: he was a meter reader, and that’s IMO an honorable profession for a state rep. Hey, you get to meet the voters where they live. The candidates are R Shannon Morris and D Charles Groce. It also shapes up as a grudge match between the denizens of ‘Mud Mill Road’ and ‘Black Swamp Road’, neither of which presumably got its name from the Kent County Chamber of Commerce. The district has about a 500 voter registration edge for the R’s. Which doesn’t count Trump D’s. Morris is the Chief County Enforcement officer for Kent County. Groce is, wait for it, a retired Delaware State police officer. He ran against Outten in 2016 and, based on this, he has a cop’s mentality. He got less than 30% against Outten. I think he’ll improve that showing against a non-incumbent. Let’s make it 65-35 Morris.

RD 31: Sean Lynn is on the short-list of names when it comes to Delaware’s best legislators. He is unafraid to proudly take progressive positions on virtually every issue. He is running against conservative activist and Dover City Council member David Levi Anderson. We have read his comedic stylings on the internets.   Lynn 67/Anderson 33.

RD 32: D Rep. Andria Bennett is fortunate when it comes to her opponents. This hack-of-hacks is being opposed by a virulent anti-choice activist, Cheryl Precourt. Precourt is not, to put it mildly, in tune with this district, which was gerrymandered to protect Bennett’s ne’er-do-well husband. Bennett, 75-25. Next time, a primary challenger, please?

RD 33: James Todd Webb was recruited by the Democratic Party to fill a vacancy on the ballot, and filed on Sept. 4.  As a Disabilities Supervisor for DELDOT, he could have a political future. The future is not now, although incumbent R Rep. Charles Postles looks like a career back-bencher.  This district only elects back-benchers. Postles, 78-22.

RD 34: I put a mental asterisk next to this race back when  Adewunmi Kuforiji filed against incumbent R Rep. Lyndon Yearick. I thought he might have a shot in this district that previously sent Don Blakey to Dover, especially if he could harness some  volunteer student power for his campaign. I’m deleting the asterisk. Raised next to no money, didn’t run a campaign that expanded beyond his traditional constituency. Despite a nominal D registration edge, 62-38 Yearick. This might have been competitive this year with the right candidate.

RD 36: I love everything about Don Allan‘s campaign.  He is a great candidate from central casting who is not afraid to put his progressive political views out there. I think he’s a rising star in the Democratic Party. I love everything about his campaign–except the district he’s running in, and the fact that his opponent isn’t an unrepentant Rethug asshole. If Don Allan was running in, say, the 9th RD, he’d be headed to Dover for certain. But even though this district skews more ‘moderate’ than most downstate districts, Bryan Shupe has done a good job of running to the left of the Rethuglicans. I think he wins, 54-46. If I’m wrong, then Don Allan will have established himself as a prospective statewide candidate. If he hasn’t already.

RD 38: Woof. A dog of a race. Essentially two doctrinaire right-wingers, one running as an R, the other as a D.  Not surprising in ‘Deliverance’ country. R Ron Gray  will roll to reelection. The less said about nutjob D Meghan Kelly, the better. 80-20 Gray.

RD 41: Delaware’s most extreme right-wing legislator R Rich Collins faces D Bradley Connor.  Connor got a respectable 41% of the vote in 2016, a strong R year. I think he’ll do better this time, and an upset is not impossible. 54-46 Collins.

NCC District 2: I’m sick of Bob Weiner who, even by political standards, is such a relentless self-promoter that he engenders eye-rolls even from his supporters. Dee Durham of Preservation Delaware is probably as strong an opponent as Weiner could have drawn. The thing about Weiner, though, is that he’s effective in his own annoying way. I see little impetus from the voters to replace him. They just wish he’d shut up. Weiner, 56-44.

NCC District 5: Voters in the Newark area know they have someone special in D Lisa Diller. She will win handily over challenger John Thomas, 67-33.

Contested Row Offices:

NCC Recorder of Deeds: D Mike Kozikowski

NCC Sheriff: D Scott Phillips

Kent County Recorder Of Deeds: R Eugenia Thornton–Betty Lou McKenna’s luck finally runs out. Besides, Thornton is well-qualified.

Kent County Levy Court District 2: R James Hosfelt

Kent County Levy Court At-Large:  D Terry Pepper

Kent County Sheriff: R Jason Mollohan

Sussex County Council District 4: R Douglas Hudson

Sussex County Council District 5: R John Rieley

COMING TOMORROW: STATEWIDES AND STATE SENATE RACES!!