Another Sleeper Race For Y’All

Filed in Delaware, Featured by on October 10, 2018 14 Comments

My skepticism notwithstanding, people in the field on both sides of the aisle tell me that Krista Griffith has a legitimate shot at taking down Deborah Hudson in RD 12. Why have I been skeptical? The numbers, mostly. 7168 D; 7313 R; and 5336 I. The only NCC Rep. District with an R plurality. Hey, waitaminnit, those numbers aren’t nearly as bad as I thought they were. Time for some research…yep, what once was about a 1000 R registration advantage in January of 2016 is now down to less than a 200 R advantage. That’s significant.

The main reason that people cite in claiming that this is an Upset Special is because one candidate is campaigning like a demon while the other…is hardly campaigning at all. Deborah Hudson has held this seat since 1994. A long time. I can’t recall anything remotely resembling a contested race here. She has been largely left alone.  That’s great…until you’re faced with a real challenge.  Your campaign machinery is rusty and, oftentimes, so is the candidate.  Especially when the candidate is almost as old as I am.

Krista Griffith campaigned for this seat since the beginning of the year. First, in a primary with Rachel Blumenfeld, and now in the general. Griffith won the primary in surprisingly comfortable (to me) fashion. And she hasn’t quit.  For those of you doubting my meme of a hardworking candidate vs. someone sitting on her laurels, feel free to contrast their Facebook pages:

Krista Griffith

Debbie Hudson

One is a daily account of door-to-door activity. The other is more or less a collection of PSA’s and endorsements. Don’t think I saw a single door-knocking session on Hudson’s site.  It’s not difficult to see who is putting in the hard work. And, perhaps once again, my initial opposition to a primary here was incorrect.  Griffith appears to have successfully banked the D vote with little in the way of residual hard feelings, an accomplishment in and of itself. Her primary opponent, Rachel Blumenfeld, was more than gracious after the primary. She committed to working for Griffith and the other D candidates in her area. She, too, has a political future if she so desires.

Griffith still needs some R’s and I’s. And I’s tend to skew more R than D. And, IMHO, she needs D’s to turn out proportionately higher than R’s.  The good news is that I’m told that she has a very sophisticated GOTV operation. Campaigns matter, and Griffith’s campaign may just be so superior to Hudson’s that she squeezes out an upset.

Definitely worth an investment of time and money.

 

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  1. Peter Briccotto says:

    Not be a Debbie Downer (ha!) but Hudson is actually running hard. She’s got a lot of friends after years of taking care of pot holes and speed limit signs. While she isn’t beloved in the area like Cloutier, she hasn’t done anything to piss people off. Griffith better knock on a door three times to convert the voters.

  2. There may be a record of Hudson knocking on a door somewhere, but she hasn’t put one up. So, I’m not sure what you mean by ‘running hard’. If you’re not out meeting voters, you’re not running hard. You’re sitting on your ass-shaped laurels.

    And, some of this concern is coming from R’s, so it’s not partisan propaganda.

    That’s not to say that Griffith will win, I’m just laying out the scenario that this is a more competitive race than I thought and than R’s would like.

  3. Beach says:

    Oh, yeah! I’ve done a breakdown of this race a few times and I really like it.
    The trends are super positive + Griffith is a great candidate + good field campaign + good fund raising. I seriously think this may be a double digit win.

  4. Now, THAT I don’t see. A narrow statistical win in a blue year? Yes.

    But, if she wins, you can probably also stick a fork in Greg Lavelle. 11 ED’s from the 12th are in his Senate district.

  5. Alby says:

    “If you’re not out meeting voters, you’re not running hard.”

    You don’t meet Republican voters in this district by knocking on doors. Nobody answers a knock on the door in Greenville.

  6. Alby says:

    I also question the notion that Ms. Griffith would be a big improvement for liberals. The first thing — the very first thing — I see on her Facebook page is “I want to make our communities and state safer …”

    Do y’all not know how to read political cliches? That’s code for “cops, cops, cops,” which is exactly what I’d expect from a former prosecutor. And it will be harder to dislodge a not-liberal Democrat than an aging Republican.

    Most of what I learn from her Facebook page is that she’s a woman. Lots and lots of women being female, joining together in femaleitude and wearing pink things. So she’s got that going for her.

  7. Sussex Worker says:

    With the Party registration nearly equal and the two having the same amount of cash on hand, Hudson will lose if Party turnout is nearly equal and independents break for the Democrats by a few points. That is the current trend

    Yes, it means the same numbers bring Lavelle down. The numbers are worse for Ramone, but he is working harder than Hudson.

  8. jason330 says:

    For many Dems, this is the first opportunity to vote against Trump since the catastrophe of 11/9/16. I love the RD/SD synergy. The Dems are poised to sweep New Castle County. I’m not calling it yet, but I’m close.

  9. RE Vanella says:

    Anyone catch Lavelle’s proposal to address student loan debt crisis?

    Guess what it could be ..

    https://www.delawareonline.com/story/opinion/contributors/2018/10/08/heres-how-delaware-can-tackle-student-debt-problem/1536204002/

    Tax credits! These fuckers are the absolute worst. Fuck Lavelle…

    • You know a Rethug is worried when he tosses something like this out right before an election. After–how many years in office?

      Hey, Greg, still sticking with your opposition to women being able to make their own health choices now that Kavanaugh is on the Court? That alone should be enough to send your pedophile-priest-protecting ass into retirement.

      • jason330 says:

        I know. Like some recent grad is even going to owe $2,500 in taxes.

        BTW – I loved Laura Sturgeon’s response.

        Carney’s was a muddled mess. Who writes his stuff? They stink.

  10. Mike says:

    I know you guys have been skeptical of the 36th, but Allan raised 10k more than his opponent, and has real energy behind him. Has a DU sponsored fundraiser in New Castle County this weekend. You should really check him out if you get the chance.

  11. Nobody here is skeptical of the race that Don Allan is running.

    It’s a heavy lift against a personally popular R, but he has a legit shot.

  12. RE Vanella says:

    I urged folks to donate to Don’s campaign after donating a few hundred bucks a week or so ago. I love what he’s doing.

    He invited my missus & me to the fundraiser. Unfortunately we are out of town this weekend, but I encourage everyone to support Don 100%

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