A Sleeper Race For Y’All
Been doing some due diligence during my days off from work. I’ve gotten some interesting insights into this November’s races.
And I’ve got a live dog in a State Senate race. A race that has some interesting twists on traditional themes. Here goes:
People who have a sense as to what races are competitive and what races are not believe that Dave Baker has a legitimate chance to knock off Ernie Lopez. While Baker may not, to put it mildly, have youth on his side, he looks like virtually every Sussex County State Senator, except Lopez, of the past 40 years. Voting for an old guy is not a deal-breaker.
Here are the demographics of the race: 17,373 D; 15,703 R; 11,075 I. This easternmost of Sussex senatorial districts includes Rehoboth, Lewes, Dewey, Milton, and Angola.
Those of us who have been through this generally shrug our shoulders and say, “Well, most of the I’s vote R and so do many of the registered D’s. Nothing to see here.”
Such conventional wisdom could be wrong in this case. Here’s why.
Baker has established scores of relationships with constituents here over the years in both his official positions and his volunteer work. Here’s his background:
Few have as much depth and breadth of experience attending to issues directly impacting the residents of Senate District 6 as Dave. An employee of the Sussex County government for nearly 34 years (1978-2012), Dave worked his way up from Supervisor of Accounts and Grants, to Director of Accounting, to County Finance Director, and finally to County Administrator. During his tenure, Dave worked with both Democratic—and Republican—controlled County Councils to ensure the County remained financially sound and maintained one of the lowest local tax rates on the eastern seaboard. He is especially proud of his work to obtain financing for wastewater infrastructure projects on the Route One corridor from east of Milton south to Fenwick Island plus Angola, and the creation of the Airframe Mechanic Program at Del Tech in Georgetown.
As to volunteer work:
Over the years, Dave has served as a member of the Cape Henlopen School Board, a Boy Scout leader, and a coach for the Milton Little League and Odyssey of the Mind. Two of their sons continue to live in the Lewes area with their families and follow Dave’s example as active members of the community.
Dave’s dedication to the community extends beyond his time working in County government. He is currently a board member of Primeros Pasos Early Childhood Learning Center, a non-profit preschool in Georgetown serving mostly children from low-income families with working parents. In his role as Building Chairman, Dave was instrumental in securing funds and managing efforts to build a $1.4 million campus in Georgetown. Dave also serves on the board of CHEER, an organization dedicated to improving quality of life and independence for our County’s senior citizens, and is a member of the Delaware Water Infrastructure Advisory Council, the Beebe Hospital Investment Committee, and the Sussex County Pension Investment Committee.
He has a lot of respect from both sides of the aisle. He sorta reminds me of Bob Voshell who, following a 40-year career in the Division of Motor Vehicles, succeeded Ruth Ann Minner in representing the Milford area in the Delaware State Senate. Voshell was one of the finest public servants I ever met. Long before he became a Senator, he was a leading proponent for organ donorship via a designation on people’s drivers’ licenses. I think Baker would be a similar senator, with a focus on constituent service.
There’s also a lot of talk about Ernie Lopez, and not all of it is positive. He apparently has some more, um, relationship imbroglios that have become the talk of the beach towns. And it’s not as if he necessarily has deeply ingrained roots there. He reportedly is freaking out a la Mike Ramone, meaning mistakes aren’t just possible, but likely. I can definitely see a path to victory for Baker.
I have been admittedly skeptical of Baker’s chances. But when people who I respect tell me that I’m missing the boat on a race, I listen.
Sussex Spies, what are you hearing?
Also…A vote for Ernie Lopez (R) is a vote for Trump. I’m not sure people in the district realize that or not. And if they do, I don’t know if it helps or hurts Lopez.
Baker has been working hard, and people do indeed know and like him. Add to that Ernie’s “moderate” status, and you could even conceivably see some Rs vote for a guy they respect since there is “no difference” between the two (there is, but if it gets him votes, awesome) and in Sussex (as elsewhere), knowing people matters. We’ll see how it goes; if I was a betting man, my money would still be on Lopez, but it is absolutely a winnable seat and the party should be working on it in earnest.
“…the party should be working on it in earnest.”
I don’t see that happening. Ernesto is a made member of the Pete S mafia.
Maybe. But I’m not so sure how much of a ‘made member’ Ernie is after his dalliance with Kathy McGuiness. Perhaps Ernie’s disappearing from the political scene would be in the best long-term interests of Pete’s Chosen One.
He’s out working Ernie, from my perspective. More door knockers, more signs, more meet and greets.
Dave Baker is a solid guy. Frankly, I was surprised to hear a while back that he was thinking about running for elected office because he’s not a backslapping pol – he’s a quiet, understated, consummate professional who’s worked behind the scenes all his life. He would make an excellent issues-focused Senator.
That said, Ernie outdoes Dave by far in the charisma arena, and he’s been working hard. He also has more name recognition in recent years from his past campaigns, and has a track record of support from across the aisle. (Not just Pete and Park City, but some genuine Democrats have backed him in the past.) However, he hasn’t exactly distinguished himself as a leader on anything in the Senate.
This one is a legit tossup that the Republicans could lose. If the wave is big, it will sweep Ernie out.
I think it’s close to a toss up. Baker is very popular and as SW said he is very solid.
But Lopez is everywhere glad-handing it. I was at a charity function for the Episcopal Camp Arrowhead a couple of weeks ago. Of course, Lopez was there, but surprisingly Pete S wasn’t. Often where you see one you see the other, but then this is an election year. So who knows? I’ve been supporting Baker even though I think Lopez has the edge.
Baker has been working very hard. So I won’t be surprised if he prevails.
Thanks, guys. That reaffirms what I heard. It’s by no means a sure thing, but this is a race worth investing time and money in.
Dalliance?
If there is any credibility to that claim, I do not want park city as state auditor. Cheating, and keeping secrets are not good resume points for that position.
Oh yeah!
Dave Baker finance report is fantastic. A+
Dave raised an impressive $50k+ but I’m more excited about the assortment of donations.
Variety is the spice of a good campaign. Dave has a vast variety of donors showing a nice foundation of support from within his district. The variety of donation amounts is indicative of support from upper and lower income groups. The variety of dates is good too because this means that the donations were not funneled through a couple mega money events but via consistent contact by the candidate / campaign.
Best part of all… contributions from Vance Philips were rejected!
Vance Phillips… Lol. Smart move. Don’t touch the watermelon of Dooooooom!!.
Still a very steep climb, but it seems like this race may be a real “blue wave” bellwether. If Dems are angry enough to vote out Lopez, no Republican outside of Laurel is safe.