Sept. 12 Open Thread: Surf’s Up!
All year long we’ve heard pundits warning that maybe a blue wave was just wishful thinking, that a Democratic takeover of the House might not happen because the polls could tighten. That was true. But it was just as true that the polls might widen, which is exactly what they’re doing. Democrats hold a 14-point lead in the new Quinnipiac poll shows Democrats with a 14-point lead in the generic House ballot (12 points for Marist).
Perhaps the surest sign of Democratic strength come from Washington’s private sector — lobbbyists.
The lobby shops and advocacy organizations that play both sides and thrive on proximity to power are preparing for a changing of the gavel and moving to forge connections with Democratic committee chairmen in the House beginning in January of 2019, when the 116th Congress is seated. “Downtown, there is a sense that the House is already lost for Republicans,” a G.O.P. lobbyist and former senior House aide told me. “There is a hiring spree for plugged-in House Democrats who want to lobby. So, downtown is already planning on the Democratic takeover; the bets are on how big the flip will be.”
That Vanity Fair article makes a Democratic takeover of the Senate sound impossible, but it’s just not so. Even Republicans are starting to realize they they could lose the Senate, too.
Michael Tomasky pulls no bunches: Brett Kavanaugh will be the second sitting justice to lie his way onto the Supreme Court.
Cliche corner: A Raw Story headline quotes CNN host Andrew Cuomo scolding house conservative Rick Santorum, ‘You want to be hot around the collar — fine! But be honest.’ Tsk tsk, Mr. Cuomo. There is no such term as “hot around the collar.” The cliche is hot under the collar. The term “around the collar” is used only in connection with the “ring around the collar” advertising campaign launched in 1968 by Unilever for Wisk laundry detergent. Their obnoxious TV commercials used the phrase for more than 30 years, which is probably why it sprang to Cuomo’s lips. Cuomo’s maladroit neocliche has been forwarded to Know Your Meme for disciplinary action.
Any polls showing independent voters’ preferences for either party’s generic candidate? I saw something about a 48% preference for Dem, and 39% preference for Rep.
From the Quinnipiac poll, via Greg Sargent:
The new Quinnipiac poll finds Democrats leading in the generic-ballot matchup by 20 points among women; by 15 points among independents; by 9 points among college-educated whites (sometimes a Republican-leaning group); and by enormous margins among young people, blacks and Latinos.