November Election Matchups Set – Part 1
UNITED STATES SENATOR: THOMAS R CARPER* (D) ROBERT B ARLETT (R)
Not competitive. D Hold
REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS: LISA BLUNT ROCHESTER* (D) SCOTT WALKER (R)
OMG…THE DEGOP pines for the days of Mike Protack. Not competitive. D Hold
ATTORNEY GENERAL: KATHLEEN JENNINGS (D) BERNARD PEPUKAYI (R)
Jennings wasn’t my pick but her TV ads sounded pretty good. Dem Hold
AUDITOR OF ACCOUNTS: KATHLEEN MCGUINESS (D) JAMES SPADOLA (R)
McG picked the right year to be picked for this. The blue wave will swamp Spads. D Pickup
STATE TREASURER: COLLEEN DAVIS (D) KENNETH SIMPLER* (R)
Incumbency is strong medicine, but the blue wave will make this close. Toss-up
STATE SEN DIS 3: ELIZABETH LOCKMAN (D) UNOPPOSED
D Hold
STATE SEN DIS 4: LAURA STURGEON (D) GREGORY LAVELLE* (R)
Sturgeon is running hard. D Pickup.
STATE SEN DIS 6: DAVID BAKER (D) ERNESTO LOPEZ* (R)
Is Ernesto still under Pete’s protection? R Hold
STATE SEN DIS 10: STEPHANIE HANSEN* (D) CHRISTINE METZING (R)
D Hold
STATE SEN DIS 11: BRYAN TOWNSEND* (D) BRYAN DANIEL KAPITANIC (R)
D Hold
STATE SEN DIS 16: LOUISA PHILLIPS (D) COLIN BONINI* (R)
Incumbency, again, is a high wall to climb but the blue wave will make this close. Toss-up
STATE SEN DIS 17: CHARLES (TREY) PARADEE* (D) JUSTIN KING (R)
D Hold
STATE SEN DIS 18: JAMES PURCELL (D) DAVE WILSON (R)
?
STATE SEN DIS 21: ROBERT WHEATLEY (D) BRYANT RICHARDSON* (R)
R Hold
I wanted to get all the races in on post, but decided to make it one post for Statewides & Sen, and one thread for Reps. So far…
D Holds: 7 Pickups: 2
R Holds: 2 Pickups: 0
Toss Ups: 2
I can’t wrap my head around the fact that R’s are such low-information voters that they nominated a serial slumlord for Congress b/c he HAS THE SAME NAME as a nationally-known Rethug.
The State party, such as it is, is gonna have to repudiate his candidacy. Nobody on that ticket, not even Trump’s boy Arlett, will escape from the waist-deep sewage that is Walker’s stock-in-trade as a landlord, if they don’t cut ties.
Delaware doesn’t have an active Republican Party. They all gave up and went home. Who is going to repudiate it?
El Som – I’m going to need some input on the RD version of this post. It is in the drafts right now.
I am sure you are tired, but Trey Paradee is facing Justin King in S 17 and Dave Wilson is the R in S 18, facing James Purcell.
thanks
Do your predictions ever workout? Simpler, Lavelle, Bonini will all three win. Paradee vs Justin King is a toss up.
I predicted Trump would win. That said, for the same reasons Simpler and BONINI are toss-ups, Lavelle should also be in that category.
Incumbency is a huge advantage.
Yeah, I think Lavelle is going down. Republicans won’t be showing up in their usual numbers this year, and conservative men running against Democratic women will be in particular danger.
I’m not quite sure where the confidence that Lavelle will lose comes from. This district (both the Senate and overlapping House 22) have a strong GOP GOTV machine, and lots of crossover Dems will to vote for a local Republican candidate.
As for Sturgeon “running hard” I don’t think the people saying that understand what it means in this district. As of yesterday there are literally no Sturgeon signs up, and there haven’t been. No, signs don’t vote, but signs do create name recognition, which Sturgeon needs badly, especially to overcome a lack of presence in the district over the past several years.
This is not a district where (despite the flap on social media) being a teacher in Brandywine is going to cut it as “community service.”
This is a district wherein people want to know how many years you’ve served on your neighborhood association as an officer, or exactly where you stand on Three Little Bakers or the water pollution issue in Hockessin/Pike Creek. Those have been pretty conspicuously absent from Sturgeon’s campaign, and her so-far distributed campaign literature has been pretty vague about anything local at all.
Voters here are a significantly older demographic, and don’t tend to use social media–they expect to have heard of their candidates at public events, and not to have those candidates appear out of the blue during election year.
Thanks to the overall turn-out issue, I look for it to be close, but I don’t think Lavelle gets unseated. That’s not because he’s not vulnerable, but because a lot of people don’t even know his opponent’s name, much less her stands.
All true, for voters who pay attention, which is not the majority of voters. I don’t think most of that will matter as much as her gender and the D next to her name.
Voters who do pay attention surely must wonder how the leader of the GOP in the General Assembly can sell himself as “bipartisan.”
Sorry, but not in this district–this district has consistently voted Democrat for everybody but the General Assembly candidates. Gender isn’t going to win here, especially in the absence of name recognition.
Last item: criticize his larger politics all you want, but Lavelle is very strong on constituent services. Sturgeon’s shown nothing to suggest she would be.
When he beat Katz, Lavelle got less than 51% of the vote. He has no margin of error and he’s swimming against the tide. I don’t see how you can consider this anything but a tossup, and I’ll take the D in that scenario.
Critique the politician’s politics, because they’re horrendous, but the trains run on time and he tells people want they want to hear . Otherwise known as “constituent services”.
Lack of signage. That’s my favorite.
Tell me how many non-incumbent candidates get elected without them.
I’m not endorsing his policies or his politics.
I’m suggesting that none of you know the district, nor why candidates win here.
So far I’ve seen nothing to refute that.
It’s my favorite because it’s true! I mean it’s fucking stupid on its face. It’s gets worse the more you think about it.
Too “on the nose” though, don’t you think?
It’s like the old joke about the lady winning an office pool by choosing teams with the best color scheme or nickname. It’s shameful and scandalous. You’ve accepted it.
I would never refute the notion that we’re a nation packed-full with reactionary rubes, professor. I wouldn’t dream of it.
That is among the least coherent answers you’ve ever provided here. All I said was–in essence–that there are basic rules of campaigning, to include visibility, name recognition, and understanding your district.
I get it that you prefer the magic pony of an ideological agenda’s invincibility over the forces of darkness.
It’s why you aren’t winning, but I get it.
Ok
The only Republican I am voting for will be Spadola. It’s plain stupid that McGuiness won – the most disappointing result of the night, for me.
I’m with you. Spadola is a decent man and a quick study. He would do well to keep his distance from Arlett and the Big Orange.
gee, but he isn’t an accountant. I guess that doesn’t matter now
When neither person is an accountant, you next look at which one’s a bigger tool.
There was only one experienced and qualified candidate in this race, Mitch. And she lost. So now we pick between two inexperienced candidates. I’ll go with the one who doesn’t come across as fake, unfeeling, and pre-meditated. I’ll go with Spadola.
Nope it doesn’t . Vote Spodola.
So disappointed about Davies. Trust me, there’s much at stake to get Spadola across the finish line! Just contributed and got my sign!
Spadola would have a better shot if this race was further down ballot. I may be wrong, but I think there will still be a lot of new Dem voters in November showing up to give the finger to Trump.
Spadola and Simpler could be collateral damage.
Possibly! However, with Carper at the top of the ticket (Ugh) & combined with the fact that Delaware is perceived as solidly “blue” I’m not sure many Dems will feel the urge to race to the polls. In Delaware, I don’t think people have the same Finger to Trump attitude because so much is under democratic control. 2020? No state wide republicans stand a chance in Delaware, and it’s going to be perilous for any upstate Republicans in House/Senate seats.
Vote for Spadola but give your time and money to Democrats in close races.
I don’t think anyone truly appreciates just how crazy Scott Walker is as a candidate, and how much a debacle this is for the DE GOP. First, while preparing to run for Congress he was actively seeking a sober house for alcohol addiction, and as a result of not having any money while at the same time attempting to fund-raise the filing fee he offered to sleep on someone’s floor. That interview which includes a conversation about how he overcame his food addiction can be found here: https://www.delaware1059.com/news/scott-walker-seeks-sober-house-as-he-prepares-another-run/article_37c919e4-1633-11e8-b380-df943511454b.html
He also, completely unprompted, brought up the fact that he may have sexual assault allegations in a radio interview. A little taste of that interview: “Delaware 105.9’s Dan Gaffney asked ‘Are you talking about former lovers or victims?,’ which Walker said was ‘a good question, and that’s in the eye of the beholder. I have made mistakes in my life, we all do, and the first thing you do is agree with your accuser that “yes this act was wrong, and yes I behaved to you inappropriately.”‘” That interview is here: https://www.delaware1059.com/news/exclusive-scott-walker-concerned-over-possible-sexual-assault-allegations/article_33b0ce14-ca1c-11e7-84e4-9f31a9379c36.html
Prior to yesterday’s primary these were the top google search results. Which means that no one who voted for him even google’d his name. They voted completely based on his name and his hand painted signs. Also, his Republican primary opponent, and former House of Cards actor, Lee Murphy wont concede!
Murphy is probably thinking: if you can’t beat him at the polls, hang on and let the courts do it for you.
I appreciate how crazy he is–and how unsuited he is to even run for public office. In addition to all that you mentioned, he is a despicable slumlord who treats his tenants like slaves. I’ll be writing a lot more about him once I get the time.
“He is a despicable slumlord who treats his tenants like slaves.”
Sounds like an ideal Republican candidate who will have broad appeal to their base.
A poor man’s Donald Trump.
Spoke to many local progressives and activists over the weekend. Commiserate. Eat chicken. Smoke weed.
We’re all voting Spadola.
It’s the perfect place to actually exercise a form of accelerationism. I normally wouldn’t argue for this…
Office is not really a policy driver. I mean it’s political obviously, and could be politically directed, but Spadola seems alright. He’s just as much a centrist as any Delaware Way goober.
These are the people who licked Castle’s boots…
While it’s not some major blow to the Delaware Way, it’s a kick square in the balls. I’ll take that.
I told the man himself at Cab outside the debate, “it’s a hatred vote.” He said he’d take it. So….
Vote James Spadola. 100%