Will Tom Carper’s “Keep Turn Out Low” Strategy Pay Off?
Obviously, I hope Carper’s strategy of keeping primary voter turnout low blows up in his face. Not only because he will lose if new voters come out tomorrow, but also it will mark a turning point in Democratic Party strategy.
Unlike DC-based politicians, insurgent Democrats see that the way to beat Republicans in November is by providing voters a real alternative. The DLC/Carper/Coons system of trying to sell watered-down versions of GOP talking points in order to peel away one or two percent in the mythical “middle” needs to be buried for good. A Carper loss will be a nail in the coffin.
Duncan Black puts it this way:
…once Democrats start telling voters that they’re better at delivering what the Republicans say they want, they’ve lost. The Republicans have already made it their issue, the Democrats have agreed the Republicans are correct but we’re just arguing about the details, and voters who think that issue is important know who to vote for.
And voters who disagree don’t have any champions. It isn’t true that if you give the voters a choice between a Republican and a Republican they’ll vote for the Republican every time. Plenty just won’t vote at all.
When DC-based Democrats like Coons and Carper identify themselves as ersatz Republicans, the voters stay home in droves. How do I know that? I have eyes.
But if my word isn’t good enough for you, just check out Trump v Clinton vote totals.
Clinton didn’t win 51% of the vote. Her total was 26%, because 48% of eligible voters voted “no thanks.”
We can’t to continue to leave 48% of eligible voters on the sidelines. We need to end the Carper/Coons model once and for all.
“Our swing voter is not red-to-blue. Our swing voter is non-voter, the non-voter to the voter.” —-Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
I’ve been banging away at the idea of “electability” for years. The idea that there’s a very narrow set if positions that are palatable to the electorate. But the electorate is only the 50% more or less of eligible people who actually vote. A good strategy can significantly change the denominator.
The argument of “electability” is one of absolutely zero political imagination. Look at the fucking blue in that pie graph. It does not take a political genius to see what is possible.
The entire graph is off, not that it changes the issue of non-voters.
Clinton received 65,845,063
Trump received 62,980,160
Johnson received 4,488,931
Stein received 1,457,050
That is a total of around 15,000,000 more than the graph shows.
In the interest of pedantry, I should note that the color of the non-voters segment is cornflower, not simple “blue”.
It also doesn’t impact the issue in any material way.
He didn’t say “material”. There is an issue of people not voting, the error does reduce the percentage of those non-voting and it assumes the number non-voting is correct. It very well is wrong too
For a guy who last week asked for Crane’s contact information so you could sit down with him, you sure look for opportunities to twist what he has the courage to write, knowing anything he posts will result in snark from people like you
‘Courage’? Ho-kay.
The non-voter to voter metric is why the polls have been off so much this time. If the pollsters’ model does not accurately approximate those who will vote, the results will be inaccurate.
That model is largely based on those who have voted previously. If they haven’t previously really had someone to come out and vote FOR, the model won’t pick them up.
They have that in Delaware this year. Raising the question, just how many drones are willing to make the commitment to vote for Carper?
Mitchstans! Love it. Courage! Fuck off.
I will sit down with Mitch. None of the fellas have sent me his contact details. Plus I can’t see sitting down before the primary.
If you think, anonymous Sussex person, that I’ll be somehow different in person. That RE Vanella is a snarky online persona and Rob is a timid, respectful person, somebody’s going to be in for a big fucking surprise.
When the dust settled, 41% of eligible voters didn’t vote in 2016, and they don’t make a habit of voting because why the FUCK SHOULD THEY WHEN THE CHOICES ARE REPUBLICAN AND REPUBLICAN-LITE ?!?!?
I think we all get that. To ignore it is simple ass-holery. Maybe ass-holery because the asshole in question is getting something out of the status quo – or maybe the asshole in question is just dumb.
Harris will lose, Carper will win. Get over it. Stop dividing our Party.
Haha!
Anon,
Carper will lose, Kerri will win. Get over it. Stop dividing our party.
Im trying to manage my expectations, but the failure of polling is really making it hard this year. All these Dem incumbents polling super ahead of election day losing against all odds……
I dunno guys, I think it can happen.
I think the GOP will pick up seats in both chambers.
I have no idea who will win. The idea that someone thinks they do is funny.
As far as “dividing OUR party”…
1.) I don’t know whose it is. Strange possessive pronoun.
2.) Regardless of the outcome, I personally will never stop doing this. Coon, Carney and LBR are next my anonymous friend.
Not sure that polling backs up your assumption that people are standing on th sidelines because of “policy” positions. Even in the Democratic primary there was a large number of nonvoters. How does your assessment explain that? Voters had Bernie on the ballot and they still stayed home.
As ignorant as it sounds, Karl Rove’s assertion that voter want to vote for someone that the can have a beer with, while childish, still holds true.
Take a look at the polls in MA07 from 2 days ago.
Here’s a good one:
http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/08/02/wbur-poll-capuano-pressley-7th-district
Now take a look at the results.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2018/09/04/full-results-for-key-congressional-primary-races/nVrVjR3QgFB2I4vZETjQkN/story.html
I have no idea why some folks seems wedded to these folky Farmer’s Almanac wisdom tropes.. I guess they are comfortable and they make you feel like you know what’ll happen, when you really don’t know.
Just a bit of advice though… public polling sucks. Never put too much into public polls. Your poll sucks unless you paid good money for real techniques. Most public polls only call landlines and don’t drill down. The data is rarely accurate and is skewed to older voters. Which is probably why tha poll showed the incumbent further ahead that he really was. Look at the public poll the Snooze Journal did in Wilmington in 16. They had Kevin Kelley in the lead. Also, just because polling shows that 61% think D’s need to be harder on trump does mean that policy is their solution. It also doesn’t judge their passion about the topic or whether it’s a topic that they are planning to vote on. If you don’t think that the look, attractiveness, and/or personality of candidates factor into people’s decision to vote for them, then you just have a very high opinion of voters.
I’m pretty sure you’ve missed the point.
Lot’s of unknows. Anything can happen. But I know this. The things Carper counts as strengths are his weaknesses. His huge campaign bank account. His long insidery record of capitulation and compromise.
Delaware isn’t the Bronx, but Carper’s real base all reside at the same address: 1209 North Orange Street in Wilmington. 1209 North Orange Street isn’t Delaware either.
It will be close, but Kerri has already won us so much. She has won the right to demand more from Carper if he wins. She won us the right to lay down our cynicism and self-pity and put our shoulders to the wheel and start working again for the future we deserve.
Whatever happens this race has blown up the conventional wisdom.
Chris Coons… pay close attention. You are no Tom Carper.
REV, Why would we ever listen to you, an employee of Bailout Jamie D? You get a paycheck from a big bank. You are nothing but a hypocrite.
Someone is worried.
I take great pride in my status as a class traitor.
Leon, wouldn’t the fact that I’m arguing against my personal self interest prove the opposite?
I think you’re confused about the definition of hypocrite. Too bad
Also, it’s a very big check if I’m honest. And when I see people struggling, homeless, ill, insecure in food and in housing, I don’t think it’s fair. So I use my money & my time to try to change it.
I think I’ve always been quite clear on this score.
Anything else, Leon?
I’m inclined to think if I’m being personally trolled by a dude using a Trotsky pseudonym on the eve of the primary there could be good things coming……
Low blow Leon T.
People have to earn a living. Can’t help the poor if you’re one of them. We need more people like you RE
I’m not bothered, for real. It’s like the critique that Occupy Protestors used iPhones.
Participation doesn’t mean anything. It’s reactionary. It’s weak. Thinking people know that.
It’s like Jason said, they’re worried. Confused. They’re on the ropes. I hope we can finish the job. We’ll see.
Whatever the result we threw the fucking kitchen sink at ’em didn’t we? I can hold my head up. Sign my real name.
Truth is I don’t think the trolling ending up the way “Leon” hoped it would.
Big day tomorrow.
Multiple comments. It’s clear you’re bothered. Pathetic.
Right back atcha, sport. It’s clear you’re bothered, too. Even more pathetic, since you’re fighting for…what? To protect the stinking sewer you’ve come to know and love?
That’s an excellent point. Perhaps a paycheck? Who likes getting the old resume in shape?