How Kerri Evelyn Harris can beat Tom Carper

Filed in National by on July 7, 2018 12 Comments

Famous nerd, Nate Silver, had some explaining to do in the wake of Trump’s win. This is what Silver basically said in his own defense.

“I never said Clinton was going to win. I said that she probably win based on polling. To be more precise, I said she’d win 53 times if the election was held 100 times. That meant Trump would probably win 47 times. This election was one of those 47 times. Also – Clinton ran a shitty campaign and took too many toss-up states like Michigan for granted.”

Well he didn’t say that last part but I can’t help interjecting the truth about that shitty Clinton campaign whenever I have the opportunity. Moving on…

Like Trump, Kerri Harris has some simple math to contend with.

She needs 40,000 Democratic Party members to vote for her in the primary on September 6th. That means she needs 40,000 primary voters who are pissed off at Donald Trump and are sick of Tom Carper’s go-along-to-get-along approach to this national crisis.

Are there 40,000 Democratic primary voters who fit the bill? Yes – there certainly are. Recent studies show what we already know. There is no middle ground in American politics. Carper’s political homeland had disappeared under his feet. There is no center, no moderate position that makes sense when it comes to Trump, and Trump is issue #1 through 30 this September.

Now, I’m making a big assumption. I’m assuming this primary election is much bigger than your typical mid-term Dem primary. Is that a safe assumption to work into my Nate Silver probabilistic model? I look at the anti-Trump energy around Stephanie Hansen’s special election win and think “maybe.” I look at the Virginia state house swing and think “perhaps” I look at pretty much ANY time Dems have entered the polling booth since Trump’s election and think that Tom Carper is not what the Democratic voters are looking for.

I’m not saying that Harris is going to win. Incumbency is a huge advantage, and a lot of things have to go right. But if this primary election was held ten times, Harris would win 4 of them, and that’s 4 more than 0.

About the Author ()

Jason330 is a deep cover double agent working for the GOP. Don't tell anybody.

Comments (12)

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  1. Mitch Crane says:

    Jason, If you think Kerri needs 40,000 votes to win the September 6 Primary, you are predicting a turn-out in numbers never seen (80,000). In the last non-presidential election year, 2014, only 22,000 Democrats voted in the the Primary. In the presidential years of 2012 and 2016, the turnout was 50,000 and 60,000, respectively. In 2012, Senator Carper faced a Primary opponent and there was a hotly-contested mayoral primary in Wilmington (which drove the vote out to the highest in recent history 12,000 vs 2,000 in 2014).

    Certainly there is greater interest among Democratic voters this year, and there are 13 offices statewide with Primary contests. Most operatives for statewide candidates are assuming a turnout of 40,000. That means the winner in the senate primary needs 20,001. Even if the turnout is the 2016 historic high, winning will require 30,001.

  2. Gobias says:

    The 40,000 win number is questionable. It’s, in all likelihood, much lower. Which isn’t necessarily a good or bad thing for either candidate, but a turnout so high that you’d need 40,000 people isn’t likely.

  3. Jason330 says:

    I forgot where I came up with that 40k number. You may be right. I’m sure the campaign has a number they are working with.

  4. Mitch Crane says:

    I thought I posted a few hours ago..but here is the gist:

    Top Primary turnout was 60,000 in 2016. 30,001 to win.
    Lowest recent turnout was 22,000 in 2014. 11,001 to win.
    2012 turnout (Carper primaries and Wilmington Mayoral) was 50,000. 25,001 to win.

    Best guestimate this year is 40-50 Thousand

  5. jason330 says:

    Thanks Mitch so it was a wild over estimate. That means Kerri only needs to find 25,001 (ish) Dem primary voters who are pissed off at Donald Trump and are sick of Tom Carper’s go-along-to-get-along approach to this national crisis.

    Doable !!

  6. Alby says:

    I came up with the 40,000 number, because that’s how many Carper got in the 2012 primary (all Wilmington mayoral elections are hotly contested, Mitch, unless a popular incumbent is running, which hasn’t happened since before you moved to Delaware.

    Carper got 40,000 votes. Unless you’re loony enough to think you’re going to peel away people who would bother to get off the couch to vote for Mr. Excitement, that’s what you have to beat.

    Turnout varies widely from primary to primary. Since this is an off-year, you might only need 30,000 votes. But to think that only 40,000 will vote so you only need 20,001 is a good way to lose by 10 to 20 thousand votes.

    But, of course, you could always believe Mitch Crane, whose skill at politics is what made him Insurance Commissioner today. Oh, wait…

  7. RE Vanella says:

    Audere est facere

  8. RE Vanella says:

    Poor Mitch.

    “We didn’t endorse officially because the candidate needs to file before the first new moon. It’s in the bylaws.

    And of course the new charter with regards to PAC funds means the Stonewall fund can by rule endorse Himmler or Ramone. I mean he gave Mitch a job at the insurance department back in ’04. Or was that the Trinidad cat?

    And also, police.”

    I see all you turds, everywhere and always. Nothing. And I mean nothing you can do.. will ever make you look more in tuned than me.

    Never.

    We all know what’s up. It fucking over for you.

  9. RE Vanella says:

    A message that’s around…

    …..

    Interested in hearing Kerri speak more about her platform and candidacy? Want the chance to talk to Kerri in person?

    Come to the Candidate Forum this Wednesday, July 11th from 7-9PM at the Police Athletic League of Wilmington (3707 N. Market Street, Wilmington, DE 19802). Kerri is speaking as the first of 18 candidates, so be sure to arrive on time!

    If you’re able to stay for the entirety of the event, say hi to Kerri and her campaign volunteers after the other candidates finish speaking!

    We hope to see you Wednesday at 7PM!

  10. mouse says:

    I’m working for her in Sussex !!!

  11. Who is hosting the event on Wednesday at the Wilmington PAL?

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