July 5 Open Thread: There Are No Centrists

Filed in National by on July 5, 2018

E.J. Dionne uses data from a couple of political scientists to show that there is no up-for-grabs centrist bloc of independent voters. Independents mostly lean one way or the other; those who don’t pay no attention to politics and almost never vote. Other findings: Republicans more than Democrats no longer consider themselves centrist, and political polarization has increased over the past 40 years:

People rate their own side about the same as they used to. On a 100-degree “feeling thermometer,” Americans gave their own party a moderately warm 71 degrees in 1978 and 70 degrees in 2012. But over the same years, their sentiments toward the opposing party turned ice-cold, plummeting from 47 degrees to 30 degrees.

Some eyebrows were raised but not much more was said about a GOP Congressional delegation meeting with some top Putin aides ahead of Trump’s secret meeting with the Russian tyrant. Why doesn’t the media want to show them bowing and scraping to Putin’s flunkies? I guess because it’s just so damn liberal.

Liberals assume Roe v. Wade is on the chopping block now that Anthony Kennedy has retired from SCOTUS, but Slate’s William Saletan, who has followed the issue’s public polling for years, points to history to argue it might not be that straightforward. He shows this all with numbers, but it boils down to the fact that a significant number of pro-lifers are priority-issue voters all the time, but when they first got their 5-4 majority — with the appointment of Kennedy, ironically — it made preserving Roe a higher priority among liberals, which caused the court to back away.

A “senior White House official” says EPA bigwig Scott Pruitt is on thin ice with Trump now that more than a dozen active investigations are looking into his behavior. This seems untrue to me. It sounds more like a frustrated staffer, unable to get Trump to listen to his warnings, is going the more effective route of letting the media tell him that.

If you have Venezuela in the “Who Will America Invade First” pool, you apparently just missed collecting on your bet last year. The AP reported that Trump fixated on attacking Venezuela last August, and it took days to talk him down.

Wrestling coaches-turned-Republican politicians seems to be a demographic over-represented on the sex scandal front. Tea Party honcho Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio has been cited in an Ohio State wrestling team scandal concerning a handsy team doctor who liked to shower with the athletes. This happened when Jordan was an assistant coach and, while he claims to know nothing about it, several former athletes said he was told about their concerns and did nothing.

Confrontation may make you feel good, but here’s something that produces more lasting results: Outing the neo-Nazis who take part in their activities and informing their employers — especially when, as in this case, the employee holds a high security clearance at a defense contractor.

Speaking of harassment, add “Representing an Election District” to the list of things you can’t do while black. Janelle Bynum, who is running for her second term in the Oregon State House of Representatives, spent two hours canvassing the community of Clackamas, near Portland. She was met by a police officer after a call from a suspicious neighbor. In a class response, Bynum posted a selfie with the responding officer and phoned the woman who had called the cops, who apologized for the misunderstanding. White Americans simply have no idea what harassment is really like.

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  1. Dave says:

    “Outing the neo-Nazis”

    This is a “confrontation” I’m all in on. Not just Nazi’s but Confederate sympathizers, animal torturers, white nationalists and every other despicable excuse for a human. There is power in outing them and identifying the association between them and their employer, their church, school, and any other organization they may be affiliated with.

    It says a lot about our nation that the last bastion of our democracy and way of life is the corporations and other organizations, but there it is. Corporations are concerned about their reputation since the public can and will speak with its wallet.

    Out them and their associations. Only when they become pariahs will we start to see change. We’ve always known they were there under the rock. Outing won’t get rid of them but it will make them crawl back under their rock. This is way better than yelling at them in a restaurant.

  2. Rufus Y. Kneedog says:

    A post on the State website says that Winters is dropping out of the State Auditor race.

  3. RE Vanella says:

    Analogy going around the internet is pretty good. White people call 9-1-1 like it’s customer service.

  4. Alby says:

    That’s not an analogy, it’s a literal fact.

  5. RE Vanella says:

    Pretty much.

    This also checks out…

    https://medium.com/kerri-evelyn-harris-for-delaware/carper-slammed-for-vote-with-drug-companies-e30289235c3e

    Between us here, don’t tell anyone. There are loads of these.

  6. Alby says:

    If you hadn’t posted it here, I never would have seen it.

    The target audience for this is 65+. They’ll never see it.

  7. RE Vanella says:

    What legacy media do you suggest (for these people who will likely never vote for her anyway)? Hot air balloon? Zeppelin?

    Ocasio-Cortez won this way, but I guess it was demographics too. Not old people in Queens and the Bronx.

  8. RE Vanella says:

    Joking aside I take your point.

    But for the 100th time, this is going to have to be different than what you’ve seen over time. There’s no other way.

    Would I like one in the paper or on WDEL every day. Sure, but it ain’t happening. Harris must win non-voters. That’s it.

  9. Alby says:

    “What legacy media do you suggest (for these people who will likely never vote for her anyway)?”

    Direct mail. Delaware voters are used to it, but not something hard-hitting like that piece, so it might gain extra traction, and it’s much cheaper than broadcast.

    Of course, that would take money she doesn’t have, but it’s what I’d do if I could raise some. Like any media, even social media, repetition is the key. A month of mailers hammering Carper would both get her name out there and inject anti-Carper sentiment into the political atmosphere.

    Depending on the cost, I’d use the blimp just to get her name noticed.

  10. RE Vanella says:

    It will be emailed and on social media too. And the canvassing has already been significantly expanded.

    You seem to have your finger on the increasingly fading pulse of the mall-walker set. Book a night at the Rotary club or whatever.

  11. RE Vanella says:

    Have you ever considered that there’s been significant research over the past 8 years to indicate what works and what doesn’t and perhaps it’s shifted a bit since back in the day? Just a thought.

    Of course 98% of people throw those right onto the trash. Not even the recycle bin because they don’t know what that is.

    But will there be targeted mailers within budgetary limits. Probably, I’d guess.

  12. RE Vanella says:

    The blimp would be pretty dope though, huh?

  13. RE Vanella says:

    Or one of those prop planes that pull adverts at the shore.

    Fans use those in England to harass football managers they want fired.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=wenger+out+plane&rls=com.microsoft:en-US&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi-5OXHz4jcAhVqm-AKHYvABDoQ_AUICigB&biw=1280&bih=900#imgrc=Cb6NFzO6Z6TRtM:&spf=1530816427067

    CARPER OUT! Hehehe

    I would personally finance this but I think I’m maxed-out.

  14. Alby says:

    “Have you ever considered that there’s been significant research over the past 8 years to indicate what works and what doesn’t and perhaps it’s shifted a bit since back in the day? Just a thought.”

    I don’t doubt there has, but I do doubt much of that research has considered a market without local broadcast media, which is what we live in. It greatly reduces the opportunity for the kind of free media Trump capitalized on.

    “You seem to have your finger on the increasingly fading pulse of the mall-walker set.”

    You seem unaware of the size of the mall-walker set, which still equals millennials in numbers and votes at higher rates.

    “The blimp would be pretty dope.”

    Especially if it just said “Kerri Harris” instead of “Kerri Harris for Senate.” That way people will look her up online just to find out who she is.

  15. Alby says:

    I like the plane-at-the-beach idea. Might be the best way to reach people over the summer.

    On the direct mail: Yes, they get tossed, but even then the headline message is seen and registered, even if subconsciously. Hit him hard in big letters and the message gets through before the paper hits the bottom of the trash can.

    Also, Delaware’s recycling rate is almost 45%.

  16. Ben says:

    direct mail? So you’re just saying she should give up on the under 40 crowd?

  17. Alby says:

    And, not instead of. You’re being especially obtuse today.

  18. Paul says:

    The biggest threat posed by the Trump pick for SCOTUS is financial corruption and the undermining of voter rights.

  19. bamboozer says:

    And on a lighter note Scott Pruitt just resigned as head of the EPA, in the grand tradition of the Republican party his likely replacement is even worse and worships coal. Even worse he’s not a clown like Pruitt and is well versed in staying out of legal trouble. One step forward two steps back? Perhaps, but with Pruitt gone I’ll take it.

  20. RE Vanella says:

    So here’s Tom Carper with NPR’s Noel King discussing the resignation of Scott Pruitt on Morning Edition.

    https://www.npr.org/2018/07/06/626465003/good-riddance-to-departing-epa-chief-pruitt-sen-carper-says

    Does this guy seem up to it to you? Maybe he just doesn’t have a voice/delivery for radio. I actually don’t know, but it sounded odd to me.

  21. Ben says:

    Bamb, didnt you get the memo? everything that happens is bad for the dems. All realities, actions AND inactions make dems look bad and hurt their chances.

  22. Alby says:

    I actually posted an an item about this a couple of days ago. If you can fight down your hysterics for a few minutes, you might read it and stop misrepresenting what I write.

  23. Jason330 says:

    WHAT A JOKE!!!

    Tough guy Carper shits on Pruitt in one sentence, then talks up the virtues of the new climate change denying, Coal Industry pick for EPA chief in the next.

    Carper is a firm yes vote for Wheeler.

    Thanks for that link, REV

  24. RE Vanella says:

    I was making breakfast listening to this. I know I’m a partisan so I do quite a bit to try to have self awareness of my intellectual bubbles. So when I heard this and thought “Wow, Carper sounds pretty bad” I thought maybe it was me.

    The EPA deputy worked on the staff of Sen Inhofe (of snowball in the Senate fame). Did Carper use this as a positive? He seemed to do, but I couldn’t even tell. His delivery seem garbled and confused. But again maybe I’m projecting.

  25. Ben says:

    Im literally whining over on that other post, bru.
    I disagree with what you’re saying here, disregard your past experience, because the paradigm is all fuckin dead, and don’t care that you think nothing of my disagreement. Just like a self righteous bully on the other page, I live for your swipes. feed me, big guy! let the hate flow through you.
    This, what’s happening here, is very similar to “other people” thinking folks should clam up and take it. Mustn’t upset the bullies!
    That is not happening anymore and you can stand in the way or get out of the way. You’re entrenched in who knows how many decades of the same political playbook, so I’m pretty sure what you’ll do.

  26. Alby says:

    You could stop being a dick. I said this was my personal opinion, not a directive to people to stop doing it.

    Again, you should search your feelings to find out why it’s so important to you that I approve of what you claim to be doing.

    But here ya go: Let’s put this to the test. Why don’t you find a Trump supporter and confront him in public, and let us know how it goes. Even better, take a video and we’ll post it here.

    You talk a big game. Go do it and see if your fantasies and reality line up.

  27. Ben says:

    YOU.. are saying someone should stop being a dick….
    jumping over THAT logic trane… I dont care about your approval, im just making sure a disagreement point gets made, lest anyone think that passive acceptance is the only path forward. that is how interwebs works. You put out your opinions and we discuss… not celebrate and agree. Sometimes, one has to be a dick.

    I have, btw. It went alright. the dude left the gas station. He was outnumbered for sure and I dont think his mind was changed, but hopefully the kid behind the counter knew people werent gonna stand around and let him get verbally abused. And hopefully other people realized they can stand up to bullies rather than just let the shit go down because “manners”.

  28. Alby says:

    There was no “shit going down” when the woman confronted Pruitt.

    It has nothing to do with manners. It has to do with effectiveness.

    I have no problem with you jumping bad on someone who is actively behaving badly. That’s the kind of situation I was talking about in which I will react the same way.

    All I said is that doing what that woman did is not for me. I didn’t say it was not for you. I also said I think videos of such confrontations are counter-productive. That one would be hard to prove either way, so I presented it as just my opinion.

    You obviously don’t see it, but your defensiveness here is a tell.

    And the way civil discussion works is you stop misrepresenting what I have written as clearly as I can.

  29. RE Vanella says:

    Speaking of effectiveness… This isn’t.

  30. Ben says:

    see now, THAT is a much softer framing of the original point. You do your thing… great. But we should be encouraging every kind of resistance other than direct violent confrontation (unless it is in self defense… then beat them to a pulp)

    C’mon man, remember Joe the fuggin Plumber and how much damn traction the tea party got out of his bullshit? It works. Seeing people stand up to power is inspiring. Even if it turns some people off, we cannot “disarm” because the “weapon” feels dirty.
    Now while, i’ll give you that THAT ONE incident did not cause his resignation, it DID make him look even more scared and weak in an atmosphere where he already looked bad. Maybe it was the last straw.. that “some woman with a baby” ran him off with nothing but a simple request. In THIS whitehouse, there is no greater sin than seeming weaker than a woman.
    Maybe criminal charges are on the way and he was gonna go no matter what. There was certainly shit going down. This entire administration is 100% shit all the time. The environment is under seige at this moment and every second this admin stays in power, shit is going down. Rights, equality, none of that matters if we’re all dead. Anyway, on to the next bastard.

  31. Ben says:

    REV,
    no it is not. But this is just sparing. a friendly row to practice for bigger game. Gotta keep each other spry and shit.

  32. Alby says:

    Agreed. This is how we sharpen our arguments. I just wanted you to understand that my position was limited to how I personally would engage, not how everyone should.

    Also, the woman in the Pruitt video is doing it the right way — she’s polite about it. So was the woman who asked Sarah Huckabee to leave the restaurant. But I’ve seen, for example, videos of folks getting in Betsy DeVos’ face, and if I didn’t already know who DeVos was, she would look like the victim.

    I don’t do social media, but I think one of the effects that nobody talks about is how everything there is stripped of context, so it becomes very easy for others to interpret it differently.

    I’ll give you an example. Christopher Hitchens once said, “If you adopt a dog and give it love and affection and food and shelter, it will conclude you’re God. If you adopt a cat and give it love and affection and food and shelter, it will conclude that it is God.” Beyond capturing the essence of humans’ relationship with both animals, that little bon mot also shows how the same set of facts can lead to wildly divergent conclusions.

  33. Ben says:

    Totally agreed on not casting any of them as a sympathetic figure. I think it is a case by case basis. DeVos, to the unknowing twit, seems nice.. so the way to deal with her is polite, yet firm. I think we both know that the right wing media will react the same way to everything, but people watching that arent the ones we need to convince. They are lost.
    For what its worth, and kudos for not falling into the trap, but I think social media is insanely effective. Lack of context or not, if one knows how to navigate and use it, one has the power. It took me a while to accept that FB or Twitter can be used for an actual purpose, much less use for good, but I think 99% of voters under 40 have their brains wired in, so might as well use the tool….. the other side is sure good at it.

  34. Alby says:

    I agree social media is the future, but — again, only for me personally — I find myself withdrawing from all media as I creep into senescence. If baseball weren’t televised I’d never turn the thing on. I rarely drive so I don’t hear radio. I like it that way. If I’m too plugged into what everyone else is thinking I don’t have time to do any myself.

    Print, I’m afraid, is the right speed for someone in the slow lane.

  35. Jason330 says:

    No.

  36. Alby says:

    It’s far better to make an unsupported assertion of tribal loyalty than to read the article and engage in thoughtful debate about its actual subject: Crafting appeals to “centrists” is a snipe hunt, because almost all people who call themselves centrist already know which party they’ll vote for.

  37. liz allen says:

    This Week at IPS…
    While many this week were celebrating the 4th of July, our New Mexico Fellow Derrick Toledo was thinking about how immigrants today are more likely to be torn from their families, put into cages, and deported en masse than they are to wield the sort of rights demanded in the Declaration of Independence.

    And IPS Next Leader Fizz Perkal explains how ICE is far from a law enforcement agency — it’s become the closest thing we’ve got to a lawless agency and should be abolished.

    Of course it’s not just immigrants denied their rights. Basav Sen reminds us that Puerto Rico, a U.S. colony comprised of 99 percent Latinxs, was left to die after Hurricane Maria thanks to inequalities of race, income, and access to U.S. political power.

    Those same inequalities play out in the Tax Act — which Chuck Collins points out in the American Prospect does zilch for small businesses. And it’s just the kind of policy that exacerbates the kind of poverty that rendered the U.S. a crisis area in a recent UN report, Ebony-Slaughter Johnson writes. Sam Pizzigati suggests an alternative in the Guardian: exploring a maximum wage.

    Meanwhile, on the international front, John Feffer explains why it’s a good thing that Trump is deeply invested in the success of North Korea. Not so much in Palestine, Phyllis Bennis laments on the Real News, where the U.S. has cut millions in funding to the UN Palestinian Refugee Agency (UNRWA) and is pursuing an Israeli “Peace Plan” that completely shuts Palestinians out of the discussion.