Delaware Political Weekly: Dec. 29, 2017 to Jan. 4, 2018

Filed in Delaware, Featured by on January 5, 2018

1. Rep. Steve Smyk Has A Challenger.  With a real good resume…and a real bad website.  His name is Jack Bucchioni, and here’s his website.  If you can make it past the photo and that quality of life statement, you’ll find a high-quality challenger. Except…the photo on the ‘Meet Jack’ page is even worse.  How much worse? (Don’t do it, Steve. Remember, your better angels, Steve, your better angels.)  The better angels lose again.  Where was I? Oh, that’s right. How bad is that photo? So bad that, if Jack is elected, I expect Sacheen Littlefeather to stand in for him at the swearing-in ceremony. I just hate myself sometimes.  However, I do have a point. With a little polish, Jack could be…a contender. They don’t come more odious than ex-cop Steve Smyk. OTOH, I don’t like the ‘send more money downstate’ meme, but what do you expect from a downstater? The 20th District is roughly a 50-50 D/R district, with 5700 I’s in the mix. It skews R, but, in a wave year, who knows?

2. A Month In The Life Of Registration Totals. Yes, change is slow, but, in the cases I will highlight, it is inexorable.  Two competitive districts, SD 4 (Lavelle) and RD 22 (Miro). Each month, the districts get a little more Democratic and a little less Republican in terms of registration.

Starting with Monsignor Lavelle’s SD 4:

Registration By Party:                                      January 2018                    December 2017                   

Democrat:                                                              12,681                                      12,659

Republican:                                                           12,152                                      12,173

Independent/Other:                                             9,480                                       9,456

That’s fairly typical and what you can expect on a month-to-month basis going forward. For the month, 22 more D’s and 21 fewer R’s.  Not much in and of itself, but it makes a different month after month.  In January of 2017, there were 218 more D’s than R’s. Now there are 529 more D’s than R’s, and it gets wider every month.

Same holds true in Rep. Miro’s RD 22:

Registration By Party                                    January 2018                         December 2017

Democrat:                                                                6,914                                       6,901

Republican:                                                              6,683                                      6,696

Independent/Other:                                              5,496                                       5,488

Again, typical in a district that is slowly moving from R to D. 13 more D’s and 13 less R’s in one month. In January of 2017, there were 139 more D’s than R’s. Now there are 231.  It gets wider every month.

These are obviously not predictors of victory this November.  But every month, chances for victory marginally improve. Assuming Miro retires, chances in the 22nd increase greatly.  And the 4th SD is slowly morphing in the same direction. With a great candidate like Laura Sturgeon and a vulnerable incumbent like Lavelle running against the Trump tide, SD 4 could well flip.  BTW, speaking of an R who has been all in for Trump, the Monsignor might be more than a little concerned that Clinton won 21 of the 24 election districts in the 4th SD. Tie Lavelle to Trump and you’ve got a great chance to win.  I’m really looking forward to this race.

3. Are All The Fishes in the 2nd SD Pool?

We’ve now got three announced candidates: Sam Guy, Bobby Cummings, and Darius Brown.  Here’s a word of caution for those who see Cummings as potentially the best senator and hence the most likely to win: If you’ve never run for office before, there is a learning curve. OTOH, neither Guy nor Brown ever met an office for which they didn’t want to run.  I still see an opportunity for someone outside the city limits to come in and maybe steal this race.  Of course, they’d have to run for office first. But the opportunity is definitely there.

That’s it for this week. What’d I miss, and whaddayathink?  Oh, and if anybody knows when the NCC D’s will post their filing fees, please let me know.  I think a lot of people are chompin’ at the bit to file.

About the Author ()

Comments (11)

Trackback URL | Comments RSS Feed

  1. Jason330 says:

    Great reporting. The slow and steady registration changes are very encouraging

  2. Wow, almost 30 views of Jack Bucchioni’s website. Consider the candidate, he seems to have a lot to offer. Oh, and consider helping to polish his website. Get rid of the Marlon Brando doppelganger pic for starters. Like, today. Seriously, invest in a decent photographer.

  3. Delaware Left says:

    Brown should be the front runner due to holding the two key qualifications for the role:

    1. not sam guy
    2. not a cop

  4. Alby says:

    Unfair code enforcement? As in, enforcing the code vs. the Potters?

  5. Brown holds a dubious qualification as well:

    “3. Ran for an office for which he was totally unqualified.”

    As you were.

  6. News-Journal’s tale on the 2nd SD race:

    My favorite quote?:

    “My record as a council person speaks for itself in terms of creating opportunity in the city of Wilmington,” he (Darius Brown) said.


  7. loritool says:

    How are you able to find the registration numbers you presented ?

  8. Lori: Go to the Department of Elections site:

    Then go to ‘Registration Totals’ under ‘Election Data’, and you’ll find archives where you can track (if you’re an obsessive like me) month-to-month figures dating back years.

  9. Alby says:

    For those who don’t speak El Somnambulese, “Ho-kay” means “He just flunked Politics 101.”

    Given an opportunity to boast, it is a politician’s job to boast. YOU, not your record, are supposed to speak for yourself. That he didn’t shows that there is no record of accomplishment, because no politician worthy of the name would pass up an opportunity to brag.

    Having nothing to brag about isn’t insurmountable — just attack the press instead. That way you dodge the question while changing the subject and backfooting the reporter. This sorry answer makes Brown look like a grown-up getting thrown to the mat by a karate kid.

  10. chris says:

    When did Darius become “Reverend Darius Brown”?
    His twitter page refers to himself as a Reverend…
    Never heard that before.