Open Thread Dec. 12: The Devil Fools With the Best Laid Plan

Filed in National, Open Thread by on December 12, 2017

All eyes are on Alabama for the special election, and the polls are all over the place — some have Jones up by several points, others have Moore up by double digits. That’s a sign that pollsters don’t know how to calculate the “probable” voters, not unusual for a special election. Those who specialize in this stuff say the deciding factor will be turnout among African Americans, and many are saying up front that Moore will win thanks to voter suppression measures. If I was forced to place a bet, I’d go with Moore by 6, which means he doesn’t cover the spread.

Tweet of the day comes from science fiction author John Scalzi, reacting to the weekend’s unhinged Roy Moore rally:

Between “our lawyer is a Jew!” and heart-warming tales of visiting a brothel filled with exploited children, this Moore rally really is a bit on the nose.

The Associated Press buried the lede on its story about Donald Trump’s resurfacing sexual assault accusers. They have two sources claiming Trump is “furious” that UN Ambassador Nikki Haley said the women should be heard. This is a scoop by any standard, and the fact that it appears in the 17th paragraph of the story shows Trump’s attacks on the press are having an effect. It’s also exactly what I expected, so I suspect Haley already has her next job lined up. If forced to place a bet, I’d say she’s headed for Fox News, probably by the third week in January.

Andrew Bacevich makes an excellent point: Standing up to Harvey Weinstein is one thing. When will Congress’ Kirsten Gillibrands stand up to our military-industrial complex? We’ve been in Afghanistan 17 years and tried every imaginable strategy, and $65 billion later the Taliban controls more of the country than it did when we started.

Liberal Elite posted this yesterday, but in case you missed it, the GOP has kicked off a reverse brain drain. French president Emmanuel Macron crowed about luring 13 U.S. climate scientists to La Belle France with grant money. Expect more of this.

The GOP has lost all capacity to govern, but it still knows how to stamp its tiny feet. The Toddler Party is pitching another tantrum because the American Bar Association pointed out that several Trump appointees to the federal bench are unqualified.

This is the basically the same tantrum Republicans threw when the Office of Tax Policy found their tax plan will add $1 trillion to the deficit. They tried to kill that messenger, too, but were finally forced to release the “analysis” — all one page of it.

If you’re looking ahead, the next looming crisis is a government shutdown over the budget. The GOP doesn’t have the votes to get it done itself, so it’s laying the groundwork for blaming it on Democrats. Conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin points out that Democrats can’t shut down squat because they don’t have the votes.

Lots going on today, so add anything you find.

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  1. On one hand, I think the so-called ‘Rizzo vote’ (those who wouldn’t admit to supporting Big Frank to pollsters, but did so anyway) wins it for Moore.

    OTOH, this ‘we’ve got to stop being a laughing-stock’ appeal might just work. The primary voters chose Moore in large part due to the skulduggery between then-AG Strange and the ‘Bama governor who Strange refused to investigate. They were sick of that one-party rule corruption (Delaware, take note).

    I don’t have a clue. It’s my full-blown pessimism that leads me to predict that Moore wins. Oh, and the possibility that the Rethugs will steal it, or hold up the results while they allege voter fraud.

  2. Ben says:

    I’ve been interested to see how the Dump party handles a real defeat. Does he try to nullify the results? Does he order McTurtle to expel Jones?
    I have no doubt that he’ll need to be forcibly removed from the WH if by some divine intervention, the Dems win in 2020… and that’s only if the GOP breaks with him and upholds the law.

  3. bamboozer says:

    Alabama polls are borderline worthless, so it’s go with the gut time yet again. I’m a rock ribbed pessimist so I’d say Moore by a few points as well, barring the miracle of a big turnout. But this election is indeed “special” so let’s hope I’m wrong. As for what happens when and if Moore gets to the senate expect assorted noises from the Republicans followed by a staged reconciliation, perhaps “for Christ!”, but I would suggest for the money.

  4. Alby says:

    Well, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina — who, as an African American, has reasons beyond molestation to despise Moore — promises Moore will face an Ethics Committee probe right after he’s seated. We’ll see.

  5. Ben says:

    SURE hes does. He’s seated, votes for the GOP tax plan like a good dog and the party of fuckwads marches on. Not a single one of them is worth the crap on my show… damn, why is there crap on my shoe?

  6. Liberal Elite says:

    Has anyone seen what lack of net neutrality has brought to Portugal?

    They’re bundling websites like they were cable channels.

    Are Americans really going to put up with this sort of nonsense???

  7. Paul says:

    With the victory in Alabama yesterday, perhaps it is time to propose a split in the Democratic party in Delaware. The “Delaware Way” Democrats, whose agenda seems to be the one put in front of them by the Chamber of Commerce, and a new Democratic Party, the Social Democrats, who will push for single payer and other pro-worker positions on issues. I’m personally fed up with the Schwartzkopf agenda.