El Somnambulo Overthinks It All For You: Special Election Edition
1. Biggest Surprise: The turnout. While I haven’t gone back to check, there is no way that any previous Special Election turnout rivaled this one. There are 35,673 registered voters in SD 10. 12,580 cast ballots. That’s over 35% of eligible voters. This should cause real concern for R’s going forward. When mobilized, there are more D’s than R’s. The D’s were mobilized.
2. Overwhelming Margin: The final result wasn’t really close at all. 7314 to 5127. Almost a 2200 vote difference. Marino’s campaign peaked back in December. Hansen’s peaked on Saturday. This was a well-executed campaign. Kinda like Markell’s first campaign on a much smaller scale. Markell combined a strong grassroots network with ample funding, just like this one. Not coincidental, when you consider that Erik Raser-Schramm was a key leader in both campaigns.
3. What This Means in Dover: It means that D-sponsored legislation will be considered and brought to the floor in the Senate. The few progressive initiatives will at least see the light of day and will likely pass. It may mean that ‘Governor’ Carney will feel emboldened to push for Democratic initiatives. A serious minimum wage increase would be a good place to start. There is no good reason not to push for this. Starting the first day that the General Assembly goes back into session. It should pass the Senate, and we can now put pressure on the House obstructionists like Bryon Short and Andria Bennett to push for passage or face primary opponents. We need to let them know that we ain’t playin’, this is for real. Either you’re a D or you’re not.
4. What This Means Nationally: For the time-being, perception becomes reality. The perception is, that in a closely-contested race with clear statewide implications, the D swamped the R, buttressed by record turnout. That will have at least two positive impacts: (1) R’s will continue to worry about the electoral downside of Trump’s unpopularity. (2) D’s will be buoyed by both the result and the outpouring of grassroots support and will use this blueprint in upcoming races. My theory, of course, only remains relevant until the next Special Election somewhere.
5. What This Means For Politics Locally: This one is tricky. The entire Democratic Party came together for this one. Both the establishment and the largely progressive grassroots volunteers. To date, Stephanie Hansen has not shown herself to be supportive of progressive proposals like higher taxes on the wealthy or being a forceful advocate for public education. Will she feel like she owes anything to her volunteer supporters, or will she settle comfortably into the role of a Chamber DINO? We at DL will be watching closely, and so should the grassroots. Her term is up in two years. This was the hand that we were dealt for the Special. If we see little Dover interest in embracing the grassroots, it’ll be time to deal a few hands of our own. Speaking of which, one of the most positive impacts of this campaign was that progressive grassroots volunteers established themselves as key players. We’ll all watch to see if this leads to more inclusion in the Party, or whether the ‘leaders’ once again try to keep elective office away from those not in thrall to the Chamber’s agenda. I don’t think the latter is gonna work any more.
I hope those volunteers were motivated by more than reproductive or immigrant rights. Those were important reasons for saving the Senate but there is no time to relax and become complacent.
All those newly politicized voters need to stay awake and fight for an upper-income tax increase, franchise tax increase, and a minimum wage increase. And they will need to fight Dems for those things, not Republicans.
Without that revenue, priorities like weighted education funding, prison reform, and drug treatment WILL NOT HAPPEN, and that is where Carney and the reach-across-the-aisle Dems are headed without intervention.
There can be no reaching across the aisle to the party of Trump.
I know quite a few of these volunteers, especially the Delaware United crew.
It was the only game in town and they came through. W/o speaking for them, their views generally are in tune with mine. And they’re kick-ass volunteers. I’m waiting for some of them to run for office. I’ll break out my moth-eaten wallet if/when they do.
Congratulations on the victory. Well played. The only relevant topic going forward is this:
“Will she feel like she owes anything to her volunteer supporters, or will she settle comfortably into the role of a Chamber DINO?”
Let’s not bask in some overblown glory here. Fair enough?
Opposing Republicans is a no-brainer. But I think it will take many of them out of their comfort zone to start fighting Democrats. Action items are:
Show up in numbers at public events like Carney’s budget reset meetings to demand budget cuts be balanced with upper income tax increases.
Show up at committee hearings to get the minimum wage bill out of committee. Same for any tax increase bills.
Show up in person to convince any Democrats who are wavering on tax or minimum wage bills.
And don’t waste your breath on pot legalization. Spend your activist energy on more immediate issues.
Most of these issues will be decided in the wee hours of some June morning in Dover. So to be successful, activism will have to look pretty much like a flash mob.
puck – Have you considered hooking up with one of the groups actively organizing? Like El Som mentioned Delaware United is very good. Also Network Delaware has a political action pillar (organizing, non-violent resistance, etc.).
Because I think you are exactly right. Turning up personally goes a very long way.
I am on mailing lists for both, and I have attended one DU meeting. As far as I know, neither has an online discussion forum (perhaps it is in the walled garden of Facebook?)
At the moment I have some ongoing personal hell to attend to that keeps me from going to all the meetings or events consistently.
But being challenged on one’s commitment is one of the hazards of blog commenting.
That’s a tidy rundown El Som. What I don’t get is how, given this success, Dems fail to grasp the fact that “Old Time Democratic Religion” [Jobs, Schools, Fairness, Pensions] is a winner at the ballot box.
To Erik Raser-Schramm eternal credit, he didn’t squander energy by “going after the middle” and trying to peel off Republican voters, but that makes this race the exception.
Next time out we may well be right back at driving down enthusiasm, while trying to woo the unwooable under the banner of pragmatism.
The unwooable are the Third Way/Chamber Dems.
Our message is a winning one. Time to find and enable candidates who believe the message.
As Jason notes more than a few Dems have forgotten the “Old time religion” of the party, for me it’s summed up with The New Deal is still what the American people want. Bernie was an FDR acolyte, admitted or not. Nobody, Tom Carper excepted, thinks that going forward the corporate Dems “Republican Lite” mentality will motivate or attract voters. But I also agree, turning up is huge and needed almost beyond all else.
I was pleased to see all of the groups that got involved in this election, but I hope those groups get involved in the elections where the GOP really gain their power: city council and school board races! These races are always ignored, and good, progressive candidates usually don’t win.
AA – Excellent point. Just a sliver of the activism from this election applied to any school board election would have a huge impact. People have won in Appo with under 500 votes.
Jason- I think there are many more school board races this year as compared to last year across the state, meaning there is less of the usual occurance of one person filing, and just getting the seat. I’m running in Kent and it’s a three person race! It’ll be interesting to see across the state
I will personally donate to the campaign of anyone who runs to oust an incumbent on the Christina School Board
@puck: On showing up: It’s more important to show up than to join an organized group. They are important, too, but it takes no long-term commitment to show up at someone’s office or on the streets for a march. You’ll be glad you did.
AA – I can readily say that we’re definitely paying attention to a lot of these smaller races. I don’t think we’re going to doing work in every election, but we will be participating in at least some of them.
Something interesting to consider:
Among the volunteers for Hansen was a woman I’ve known for more than 20 years, a Republican who considers herself conservative. She has been completely radicalized since the election. She has knitted herself a pussy hat, she volunteered for Hansen and she told me her goal is to get arrested for civil disobedience.
Another woman I’ve known for just a couple of years, another now-ex-Republican, told me this weekend, “I can be either a Republican or a woman.”
These are not radical women. They’re the sort who join the Junior League.
I don’t pretend to know what all this means, except that maybe Susan Sarandon was right after all.
It would take minimal effort to beat Andrea Bennett because she puts zero effort into campaigning
Alby, you’re observation is correct and Jason is (somewhat) wrong. Republicans, especially republican women, were targeted, but in a very quiet and laser-focused approach. I was skeptical of it at the time, and was very annoyed whenever I saw I had a R on my list, but in retrospect I think that it was the right move, and one of the reasons why Erik Raser-Schramm has a bright future in the party. I really think that this approach should be carried forward into future campaigns, both in Delaware and across the country.
@Josh: These women don’t live anywhere near the district. One doesn’t even live in Delaware. This is nationwide.
Speaking of races, and I don’t know if he’d welcome the support, but I’d be more than happy to plant a bug in the ear of my public school teacher friends on behalf of Mike Matthews.
I believe that his election as DSEA President would be a big plus for teachers and for public education in Delaware.
Mike? Whaddayasay?
Delaware Left: Speaker Pete did the Bennetts a big favor during the 2012 redistricting.
To be more precise, he did the D’s a big favor and turned this district into a D stronghold. This district is ripe for a more progressive challenger to Bennett. Whoever wins the primary will win the election.
Time to start beating the bushes.
@Josh – that’s awesome to hear!! Smaller races need help too!