The Epic Fail of the Clinton Campaign
This race shouldn’t be close. But it is. Why? Because, IMHO, the Clinton Campaign had an incredibly powerful message to attract working-class voters, but decided not to use it.
Virtually every commercial and everything thrown out by the campaign against Trump that I’ve seen falls under one of two themes: (1) He doesn’t respect women. And (2) He is emotionally unfit to be Commander-In Chief. Both effective, and both powerful.
But the campaign, for whatever reason, neglected to launch their strongest argument, the one that goes right to the heart of Trump’s claims of legitimacy and directly to a lot of his supporters: He’s a deadbeat who stiffs everybody. Virtually every small business that ever provided a service. The workers. Oh, and every American who shoulders the load b/c this guy never pays taxes. People hate that. Can you just imagine the power of that argument if only the Clinton campaign had exploited it? Trotting out people who can speak first-hand to how Trump ripped them off. It would remove the only real claim for legitimacy that Trump had–that he’s a great businessman who will Make America Great Again in the manner that he built his Great Company. If people don’t pay their obligations, nothing works. Trump’s entire career is based on not paying what he agreed to pay, and/or not paying anything at all. And also by declaring bankruptcy where everyone except for Trump himself is left holding the bag.
Over the years, the R’s have gone right after Democratic candidates’ perceived strengths, like, for example, John Kerry’s military service (You do remember the Swift Boaters, don’t you?). It’s not like the D’s would create a strategy that hadn’t existed before. And it would have the added benefit of being true.
The failure of the Clinton campaign to exploit this is political malpractice of the highest order. Should she lose, and even should she win, the failure to engage on this issue will have political consequences. Including down-ballot Senate races that could have swung our way if only this argument had been made. I think it’s due to the insularity of Clinton and her campaign advisers which, BTW, does not bode well for her time in the White House, should she get there.
But, whatever the reason, it’s inexcusable.
I’m sorry, but this analysis is deceitful and wrong. The campaign has used the deadbeat argument. I have seen speeches from Obama and Hillary, JUST FUCKING YESTERDAY, making this argument. I have seen commercials on this exact point. You have seriously gone off the rails, El Som.
Trump’s “strength” is not so much from his perceived business success, but from his racism and “america First” rhetoric, both prime targets for attack. Hillary has attacked his racism plenty; so much in fact her ads are losing their impact due to overexposure. She has gone after his business record on the stump sometimes but is not really hammering it in TV ads. Hillary’s TV ads are mostly about Trump grabbing women by the nuclear button or something. At least those are the ads I see on TV.
I’d like to see ads taking each Trump proposal one by one and spelling out exactly the destructive impact it would have on jobs and the deficit.
Oh, and let’s ignore the biggest reason why this race is close: the FBI’s egregious intervention into the campaign and the media’s overhyping of it. My God, El Som, this is by far the worse thing you have ever written.
Another false yet often repeated presumption in this piece is that the white working class is voting Trump because of economic anxiety, and that the deadbeat argument would win them over.
LOL.
A majority of them are voting for Trump because they are racist bigoted pieces of shit. Simple as that.
What a shock. DD with his panties in a bunch. I’ve suffered through hundreds of political spots this week alone. NOT A SINGLE SPOT made the argument about Trump as deadbeat, but hundreds, and I’m not exaggerating, went after the Trump as misogynist argument. As if there are any undecided women remaining in Delaware County or Bucks County.
You can quote a line in a speech all you like, but the campaign has largely ignored this attack on Trump’s perceived strength. The Swift Boat stuff was unavoidable. The deadbeat stuff is virtually invisible.
Even if the majority of Trump supporters are racist scum, this argument would appeal to those who aren’t and to those who have bought the Trump as Business Genius mystique. Especially if the spots feature people like them who Trump screwed. It’s about getting your fair share of the vote and, yes, discouraging people from voting. It’s not that difficult to understand unless you’re in a screaming meemy mode of denial.
But I guess pointing this out makes me deceitful.
El Som:
I think there’s a very good chance that the Clinton campaign tested those messages and the ones talking about Trump’s comments about women tested the best. I think there are probably three reasons for this. First, Democratic voters tend to be female. This has been the case for a long time and getting out your own vote is usually a better tactic than “stealing” votes from the other side.
Second, I think you’re forgetting that for most people in this country deal with “contractors” as they guy who charges them more than they want for their house and never finish on time. This is not to say that contractors are bad people, just saying that with the general population they rank somewhere around “lawyer” on the scale of likeability.
Third, sadly our culture has started to believe that business people should do whatever they have to do in the pursuit of profit. For some reason, it has become acceptable to use profit as an excuse for doing awful things. No idea why, but it’s the truth and would blunt this line of attack
It makes you wrong. Som, I tend to agree with you more than DD on these things, but even in the debates, Clinton called Trump a tax dodging, contractor stiffing cheat TO HIS FACE. Its been Warren’s main line of attack. Your problem is the media isn’t talking about it and despite what the Trump world would have us all believe, they are not part of the Clinton campaign
*sigh*
Could Hillary have hit this harder on this topic? Sure. But… do you really think her ads weren’t focus group tested? That a ton of thought and strategy didn’t go into this?
“NOT A SINGLE SPOT made the argument about Trump as deadbeat, but hundreds, and I’m not exaggerating, went after the Trump as misogynist argument. As if there are any undecided women remaining in Delaware County or Bucks County.”
Right back at ya… Are there any undecided white men remaining in Delaware County or Bucks County? There are ZERO undecided voters. ZERO.
“Oh, and every American who shoulders the load b/c this guy never pays taxes.”
I agree that the guy should be paying his fair share of taxes, but if he is within the tax laws…..who’s fault is that?
Has anyone of you, sat down at the end of the year with your accountant and said; “How can I pay more taxes?”
FIX THE TAX LAWS!!
Have any of you seen a commercial calling Trump a tax-dodging cheat? My problem isn’t that the media isn’t talking about it. It’s that the Clinton campaign has not put this issue front and center.
If only they had done a series of spots like they did with the people who don’t want their kids to have to grow up with a President Trump. There are scores of sympathetic people to whom voters can relate who could have told their stories about how they and their families suffered due to Trump’s deadbeat approach. And you probably only needed three or so. I don’t think Ohio would even be in play if they had done that. Hey, only run those ads in the rust belt states, if they want.
Your mentioning Elizabeth Warren only strengthens my argument. You see how that message resonates? Why not make that an integral part of your media campaign? That type of populism is appealing, but it’s not generally at the core of the Clinton campaign. If it had been, I think she’d be in much better shape.
It raises the question with of how concerned is she really about the abuses of the wealthy
Then, Pandora, if every single voter in those counties has decided, why the bleep run those ads about Trump’s misogyny hundreds of times a day?
The one mistake the campaign has made has been insufficient outreach to working class folks. Yes, a lot of them are racists. Yes, a lot of them blame others for their own screw-ups (I’ve read Hillbilly Elegy, overrated, IMHO). I get that.
But there’s a reason why labor unions are struggling to get their members even out to vote, and I think it’s been due to insufficient outreach to those voters, especially from Clinton herself.
And, for at least the third time, it’s not about winning this demographic. Sufficient outreach would have narrowed Trump’s margin here and would likely have discouraged voters to go out and affirmatively vote for him. And the election would be over.
I still think she’s gonna win. I was hoping not to have to break out the Pepto on Tuesday. But I think the race would truly be over if the campaign had engaged more here.
Oh, and Anono? It appears that Trump has likely violated a shitload of tax laws, but, of course, we won’t find anything out officially until AFTER the election.
I’m not sure what you guys expect. There are ads that go after Trump stiffing people. They’ve been playing in Ohio and other rust belt states. I just saw the architect one the other night. And as Ben pointed out, she called Trump out on this TO HIS FACE. She also, flat-out, called him a racist to his face.
Clinton is shoring up her base, which, sadly, isn’t white men. If only white men voted then Trump would win in a blow-out against anyone.
Like I said, there are ZERO undecideds. Smart politicians get out their base. The Dem base is women and minorities. Change that and you won’t have to suffer through all those pesky misogyny ads. 😉
“And, for at least the third time, it’s not about winning this demographic. Sufficient outreach would have narrowed Trump’s margin here and would likely have discouraged voters to go out and affirmatively vote for him. And the election would be over.”
I respectfully disagree. People aren’t voting for Trump due to economic reasons. Not one bit. You’re pretending that the right ad (obviously not ads addressing misogyny because everyone seems so over them) would either stop Trump supporters from voting or switch them to Hillary. That was never an option. None of this has anything to do with the economy or jobs. That was a smokescreen – used to promote racism, bigotry and misogyny. Sorry, but this year it is not the economy, stupid.
Show me the ad, Pandora. I want to see it. Maybe there are a series of those ads out there somewhere. I cite the misogyny ads b/c I know that Pennsylvania voters would be receptive to a spot citing the stiffing of small business folks, but I haven’t seen Ad One. Plus those ads would not be limited to white males, but pretty much across the demographic spectrum with the exception, of course, of Foster Freiss.
Not much I can do about the white male demographic except to say that most of the white males I know can’t stand Trump. And those who like Trump can’t stand me. Like the guy on Marsh Road with 11 Trump signs on his lawn. 11.
Actually it is always the economy, unless you are stupid. The recovery, however tepid, has denied Republicans the ability to aggressively run on a “cut taxes for the job creators, austerity for everyone else” campaign. Well Trump is doing that anyway but he is hardly leading with it. If employment were declining Republicans would win on that message. The currently sorta-OK economy is what has allowed this campaign to become a slugfest of mutual character assassination.
“NOT A SINGLE SPOT made the argument about Trump as deadbeat”
As an American, I am embarrassed to say that being a deadbeat is about American as apple pie. If a cashier makes an error in their favor, how many people correct the error? If someone forgets to charge you for work, do you seek them to rectify the situation?
Stories abound about how someone got something for nothing. Or found an insect in their rice and filed a complaint to Uncle Ben’s in order to get free rice (or even pretended to find an insect)? How many people sue someone or a company because they were “harmed” in some manner? How many people expect dinner to be comped because the soup was cold?
Paying your debts is for suckers who don’t know how to cheat the system. Being a deadbeat is Americanism at its best. Who would be the target of ads about Trump being a deadbeat?
“Who would be the target of ads about Trump being a deadbeat?”
Individuals and small business owners who work as contractors for larger businessmen and are highly vulnerable to being stiffed. And the people who rely on their income.
Hillary likes tearjerker ads, and the economy provides much underused material. Maybe Hillary could run an ad about a stiffed contractor with his adorable daughter tugging at his sleeve and asking if they can keep their house. Or the son looking up from his homework and asking if he can still go to college.
Web ad for the Architect
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUvrxz3HXTc
Piano man:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTKsO8ChcXw
I think there is also one with a guy that installed the windows at the Taj Mahal, but I can’t find it.
“Pennsylvania voters would be receptive to a spot citing the stiffing of small business folks”
Yeah maybe. But imagine the counter ads, which target small business about the myriad of federal, state, and local regulations that are merely an annoyance for large businesses, but cause small businesses real headaches. American isn’t very supportive of small businesses. Sure we have the SBA (who does a pretty admirable job), but that’s about it. The neither the public or government pays much attention to small business.
As long as I am commenting, let me offer a plug for Small Business Saturday (November 26, 2016). Small business is more expensive. They have fewer choices. They don’t usually offer free delivery, online shopping, or other services. What they are, however, are people who are trying to make their way in this world, being their own boss, working night and day because it’s a labor of love for them, and generally treating customers with respect because those customers are near and dear to them.
For those who are near Lewes, the Lewes Merchants Hospitality Night
December 1, 2016 at the Historic Lewes Commerical District, 5-8pm.
Jeezus. That’s (architect) a GREAT ad. Why the bleep hasn’t everybody seen it? That ad should have been everywhere. And shown over and over again. Cut down, of course, but everywhere.
Dave: I love Small Business Saturday. Those are the businesses I love to frequent. I’ll be heading down to Between Books 2.0 to buy some books for my wife. We should start another thread as we get closer to list our fave small local businesses. I’ll put it into my mental Rolodex.
I’ve seen the architect ad a ton of times – maybe I watch too much TV.
Thanks, LG for posting those ads.
Those are great web ads. I must have missed them on TV. I’ve seen lots of Hillary ads but not that one.
Lots of great web ads have been created but the issue is, which ones does Hillary choose to air?
And here’s another thing. I’ve seen a ton of Clinton ads and it isn’t fair to boil them down to misogyny ads (and unfit to be President – altho, that one hasn’t been discussed much here). The Clinton ads I’m seeing a LOT of are: The one with the vet with the missing leg watching Trump talk about his sacrifices; The one where Khizr Kahn ad about his son; The architect; The ads about mocking the reporter with disabilities; along with testimonial ads.
Maybe people remember the misogyny ads because they’re so powerful and resonate?
@pandora
Here in AZ we are seeing the ad about mocking the reporter and the unfit add. The unfit add plays well as you don’t need to hear the sound to know what is going on.
Are you guys seeing more ads than usual, Mark? How are they playing out there?
And puck, if you can let me know when you’ll be at your TV and what channel you’re watching I’ll see if I can arrange an ad to be shown for you. 🙂 Not sure how you’re not seeing the ads I’ve listed above.
Know what else I’m not seeing much of? Trump ads.
I’m sorry. I just don’t see any epic fail.
Isn’t she on the cusp of an epic win???
After all the incredible nonsense and stuff that’s been thrown at her for 30+ years, she is still standing strong in a dominant position.
Great timing. You guys should really pay attention to what I say in the Open Threads. I told you Clinton was rebounding from the FBI hit and polling is starting to reflect that. And as if on cue, new @ppppolls dump of battleground state polling:
NH: Clinton 48-43
NV: Clinton 48-45
WI: Clinton 48-41
PA: Clinton 48-44
NC: Clinton 49-47
This panic piece would have been better posted on Monday and Tuesday. The big surprise left in this campaign is going to be the relative ease with which she will win. But it would not be a Democratic election if we did not have a circular firing squad bedwetting incident.
Everyone knows that there is a Republican campaign going on to depress the Clinton vote by getting El Som to write this post. (Your Kremlin puppet masters are pleased)
That said, he is right of course. Clinton should have been more sunny and optimistic. Making the case that Trump is an unpatriotic douche for not paying taxes.
Hey! Maybe she should have smiled more!
(Sorry, couldn’t resist!)
I’ll cop to not gorging on TV like some people. My TV consumption is pretty irregular. So that is probably why I would miss the rarer ads. The question is why are the rare ads so rare.
Lol. I deserve that. A commenter mentioned how the Democratic Party has forgotten how to talk to blue collar voters. That sounds right to me and we need to fix it.
@J “Democratic Party has forgotten how to talk to blue collar voters.”
If we were like the Republicans, we’d be trying to figure out a way to suppress the blue collar vote.
I’m wondering if a conversation about blue-collar workers (shorthand for non-college educated white men) and a conversation about misogyny can co-exist?
Or maybe one about moral and intellectual development
Pandora. In all honesty, I think so. The real denographic divide, as you point out, is educational attainment. I don’t think mysogyny is the main attraction to Trump. It is a button on the vest, not the fabric of the vest.
the democrats have a coalition. the white working class is not really part of it, since the demographics tell them they’re not needed. to a lot of binary democrats that group is 100 percent racist/misogynist trash. but i’m ok with that for now if it helps defeat trump. the question is, i guess, is it helping or hurting.
“the democrats have a coalition. the white working class is not really part of it, since the demographics tell them they’re not needed. ”
Democrats have failed to prioritize labor-force issues of all wage workers, not just whites.
Oh, misogyny is the absolute constant when it comes to Trump. It’s the fabric – that’s why there’s so many ads about his misogyny. He has spouted this crap all his life. He hid his racism and bigotry fairly well. Those were always there, but he only publicly embraced them recently. (That is not saying he isn’t a racist and bigot. He is, and always was. He simply wasn’t comfortable spewing blatant racism and bigotry – He’s always been comfortable with misogyny.)
I guess I wonder if the two conversations can exist since we’ve been hearing a lot about how little social issues matter, and how we need to put them on hold while we address income inequality. (That was said on this very blog – quite a few times, btw.) What that argument ignored was that to women and POC social issues are economic issues. What else that argument missed was how income inequality was an issue for women and POC long before it became this year’s (and the years since the economy crashed) “blue-collar worker” issue.
This…
“the white working class is not really part of it, since the demographics tell them they’re not needed. to a lot of binary democrats that group is 100 percent racist/misogynist trash.”
… is nonsense. The white working class is welcome, but not at the expense of others. Not to mention that this group (that supports Trump) votes against its self-interest time and time again. It’s this group that weakened unions and worshiped at the altar of business – and they did it, usually, in the name of screwing over women and POC. How’d that work out for them?
Stop pretending they were kicked out when they were the ones who wouldn’t “stand with” a women or person of color.
Has anyone read George Packer’s recent article in the New Yorker? HILLARY CLINTON AND THE POPULIST REVOLT is a VERY long read, but Packer works through some of the history of how white working class people became a special interest group and how both Ds and Rs failed to come to grips with the fact that they think the country has left them behind. I don’t know that there is an easy answer here — at one point I was reminded of Occupy Wall Street’s concerns continuing unaddressed — but someone has got to work at an answer. There is a big tent to be created of working class people, middle class people of all stripes, because this economy is a threat to all of them. If the Ds and Rs are smart, I would think that the autopsy this year would be how to address these issues and I think that a smart leader would start to get in front of business elites and start telling them that they can’t just be interested in maximizing shareholder value anymore. The pitchforks are coming and it is time to deal with that.
Why all the angst about the “white working class,” which is a kinder way of saying “rednecks”? Look, this was inevitable when Nixon traded went for the rednecks — it drove away the Republican moderates, who were the college-educated ones.
So now the college-educated are being driven towards the Democratic Party. They are the players-to-be-named-later we got for the rednecks. So, frankly, fuck the white working class. Robots will be doing their jobs within 10 years, at which point they will become the whining spongers they think everyone else is.
women plus blacks plus hispanics — that’s mainly what wins elections for democrats. it’s a calculation, though some of you would rather not put such a fine point on it. that means democrats talk about social issues. bernie would have hit the income-inequality issue harder, but that might not have made it more likely for him to beat trump. Narrowing the income gap would help everybody in the democratic coalition, but that doesn’t hit every liberal’s sweet spot the way social issues do. most people would worry more about having a decent job than misogyny. but they’re wrong to think trump can provide that.
Where are ads against Trump University scam? I have not seen any
Unlike the Trump Campaign aka FBI aka Fox news, they probably dont want to use an on-going investigation for attack ads. Trump being convicted will be news enough.
Enough with this trump/Clinton stuff….When are we getting predictions with % of vote for state house and senate races?
Narrowing the income gap would help EVERYBODY period. The social issues are important, but people on the right have used them as a force field to deflect from the fact that they are sponsoring a government give away to the rich. People on the left are increasingly using social issues as a way to deflect from the fact that they are bipartisaning their way to enabling government give aways to the rich. At least the left is interested in social justice, but there has to be a way to stop this from being an Either/Or equation.
That is the point of Packer’s piece, I think.
@pandora
The only times I actually am watching TV is during the morning shows as we DVR everything else and ff through the commercials, so this response is based on that
1) A Lot of MCain Ads
2) A lot of not so effective Sherrif Joe Arpio Ads
3) The Hilary ad that has the republican woman saying that they are voting for her because Trump is unfit
4) The Pro and Anti Pot people (Prop 205)
5) A few Krysten Siemma Ads (I’m not in her district, but I have a feeling she is going to run against Sen Flake in 2 years)
AND NOT A SINGLE TRUMP AD…. He has done some newspaper advertising though.
You might have noticed that the FBI story is getting more complex:
FBI Director James Comey was driven in part by a fear of leaks from within his agency when he decided to tell Congress the FBI was investigating newly discovered emails related to Hillary Clinton, law enforcement sources said on Thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-fbi-leaks-idUSKBN12Y2QD
Anon: I’m not doing predictions this year. There are so few competitive races it’s just not worth it. I do predict, however, that no State Senate seat flips on Tuesday.
Only the seat formerly represented by the now-deceased Jack Peterman and perhaps the 41st, currently held by Rich Collins, even look competitive.
Least suspenseful Delaware elections ever. Least inspiring as well. Governor Carney, anyone?
Should Hillary somehow lose (which I don’t believe she will) who will be at fault? Her campaign, Dem primary voters, Dem Party? You can blame the FBI for it being close. You could also blame the way she and her campaign have handled the issue from the start. Why don’t HRC’s supporters ever seem to find fault with her or her campaign? You can blame groups of voters too (white working class men, etc). However, this race should not be close. Why don’t we recognize that one of the reasons the race is close may be related to the candidate we chose and her campaign? It doesn’t mean people were wrong when they voted for her. I support Hillary but not blindly.
El som…I literally look forward to Del lib predictions every election 🙁
The nomination of Hillary Clinton by the Democratic Party Bosses in their rigged primary system is the epic fail. We could have had a real change candidate that would be beating Trump easily and having the coattails to win the House and Senate, but instead we have an old establishment candidate with tons of baggage and running a lackluster campaign. She and we are lucky she is not facing Ted Cruz.
That we are even worried about her winning on Tuesday against Donald Trump(!) is a testament to her poor campaign. She was another lousy nominee from a party that has a long record of selecting lousy candidates. Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry, Gore, and now Hillary Clinton.
Trolls gotta troll.
@D “We could have had a real change candidate that would be beating Trump easily and having the coattails to win the House and Senate…”
In case you hadn’t noticed, she is beating Trump easily. And she does seem to have sufficient coattails to take the Senate. Sadly, the House is gerrymandered beyond hope, but there will still be far more Dem votes than Rep votes in all the house races combined. It’s just undemocratic (and the new USSC will fix that!).
And the role that Nate Silver is playing is priceless. He keeps saying that the race is darn close, and that’s driving Democratic turnout. In fact, He’s probably the most important person in the entire nation (not part of any campaign) for driving the Dems to the polls.
Time to start working on the House and state legislatures for 2018.