The October 22, 2016 Thread

PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–Reuters/Ipsos–CLINTON 46, Trump 37
NATIONAL–American Research Group–CLINTON 49, Trump 42
FLORIDA–Cherry Communications–CLINTON 46, Trump 42
FLORIDA–FOX13/Opinion Savvy–CLINTON 49, Trump 45
OHIO–The Times-Picayune/Lucid–CLINTON 44, Trump 39
IOWA–The Times-Picayune/Lucid–CLINTON 41, Trump 37
PENNSYLVANIA–The Times-Picayune/Lucid–CLINTON 47, Trump 38
INDIANA–The Times-Picayune/Lucid–TRUMP 43, Clinton 37
MAINE–MPRC–CLINTON 42, Trump 36
MAINE CD1–MPRC–CLINTON 46, Trump 36
MAINE CD2–MPRC–CLINTON 38, Trump 37
GEORGIA–Landmark Communications–TRUMP 47, Clinton 43
GEORGIA–FOX5/Opinion Savvy–TRUMP 50, Clinton 46
LOUISIANA–FOX8/Mason-Dixon–TRUMP 54, Clinton 34

Philip Klein says it is over for Trump: “People often don’t like to proclaim events over until they officially are. And it’s true that the race isn’t technically over, in the same way that a football game isn’t technically over until the clock runs out, even if the losing team is down two touchdowns with no timeouts, with 1 minute left, and the leading team is in possession of the ball with a first down, and the quarterback is taking the knee. But everybody knows which way that game is going to turn out.”

“The same is true here. Trump’s act, which worked on a Republican electorate in a crowded field of candidates, failed miserably among a broader electorate. He’s lost — and the fat lady has already started singing.”

“Catalist, a voter data firm that works mostly with Democratic campaigns, provided The Washington Post with early vote numbers from several battleground states that allowed us to compare current returns with the number of ballots returned in years past.”

“In seven states for which returned ballot data was available by party, Democratic ballots made up a larger percentage of what had come back by the 20-day mark (that is, by 20 days before Election Day) than in 2012 (or in 2008 for Florida). In some cases, like Arizona and North Carolina, the shift to the Democrats was substantial.”

The Washington Post says Trump is in a funk: “After weeks of controversy and declining poll numbers, Trump and his campaign have settled into a dark funk. Even as he vows to prevail in the race, the GOP nominee’s mood has soured with less than three weeks to go until Election Day.”

“The gloomy mood has extended to his signature rallies, which Trump used to find fun. During the primaries, he would bound onto rally stages bursting with energy and a sense of excitement that intensified as the crowds chanted his name and cheered his every word. He would regularly schedule news conferences, call into news shows and chat with reporters, eager to spar with them. He would say politically incorrect things and then watch his polling numbers soar. He used to be the winner.”

There is signs of a huge upsurge in early voting from women. I wonder why. “For much of his campaign, Donald Trump has done more to repel voting women than he has to win them over. Now mounting evidence suggests they are already punishing him for it at the ballot box,” Politico reports.

“In three crucial battlegrounds — North Carolina, Florida and Georgia — women are casting early ballots in disproportionate numbers. And in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump with detailed early voting data available, it’s clear that Democratic women have been particularly motivated to turn out or turn ballots in.”

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) was in a high speed car crash Thursday afternoon but he and apparently all others involved are basically fine, albeit a bit bruised up. Safety belts, airbags. Government regulations on how to build a safe car. They really make a difference.

Brown regularly champions government regulations and said in a statement that the collision provides an example of how they work. His mention of “Connie” refers to his wife, Connie Schultz.

“Connie and I and my team are so grateful to the Parma Police, the paramedics and doctors and nurses at Parma Medical Center for their professionalism and quality care,” the statement said. “We appreciate the concern of our friends and neighbors for my staff member and myself and are happy to report we are both doing just fine- thanks in large part to my well-made Jeep Cherokee and government regulations that help keep us all safe on the road by requiring airbags.

“While I wish this could have happened on a test track rather than to us, I can tell you without a doubt that my Jeep Cherokee, made with American steel by union workers in Toledo, made all the difference in allowing us to walk away from this crash, a little stiff, but unharmed.”

Donald Trump said he will have “lots of options” to go after Hillary Clinton if he’s elected president, Politico reports.

“Trump has labeled Clinton a criminal for using a private email server when she led the State Department and deleting thousands of emails, arguing that the Democratic presidential nominee shouldn’t even be allowed to run. He has since ramped up his rhetoric, threatening during the second presidential debate to jail the former secretary of state.”

They really, really didn't think through the location for this one pic.twitter.com/Adxe51J0ap

— Iowa Starting Line (@IAStartingLine) October 22, 2016

Vice President Joe Biden took Donald Trump to task over comments he made bragging about his ability to grope women, saying he wished he were in high school so “I could take him behind the gym,” ABC News reports.

Said Biden: “What he said and did and does is the text book definition of sexual assault. He said because I am famous, because I am a star, because I am a billionaire I can do things other people cant. What a disgusting assertion for anyone to make.”

Rachel Maddow says Biden should probably apologize. Conservative commenters on Twitter are saying if Trump had said that, the media would go nuts. Maybe. But when Donald threatens violence, he does it to bully or intimidate. Joe’s reason: to stand up for women. To stand up to a bully. When a man hits a woman, that man can expect a beating, and there is nothing at all to apologize for.

Don’t you apologize, Joe. Don’t you dare.

Reports on Trump's visits to the 9/11 museum and Simon Wiesenthal Center suggest a shocking lack of basic human empathy. pic.twitter.com/DcxNUTi2j8

— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) October 21, 2016

“President Obama has recorded a remarkable number of personalized television commercials for down-ballot Democrats to air across the country during the next two weeks,” the Washington Post reports.

“It’s a stark contrast to 2014 and 2010 when many congressional Democrats only wanted the president to raise money and not stump for them.”

Charlie Cook: “Republicans will now have four years to think about what they did to themselves this year, plenty of time to contemplate the consequences of handing over their party’s car keys to the tea-party movement and watching as the quintessential tea partier, Donald Trump, drove the car over a cliff…”

“When I talk to smart Republican leaders and strategists, they have a very good idea of what their party’s problems are, and they know what needs to be done. But my colleague Amy Walter recently reminded us of a great line by former House Speaker John Boehner: A leader without followers is simply a man taking a walk. Republican leaders are faced with a party in which about half of its members believe that compromise is a four-letter word and hold some pretty exotic views of what this country is and where it is headed—views that are very different from where the country actually is and where it is going.”

First Read: “Folks, it takes a lot of work to get booed at a charity dinner. All of Trump’s flaws were on display — the inability to laugh at himself, his inability to play to a crowd where not everyone is an adoring fan, and his inability to wear a poker face. When you combine Trump’s dinner performance with his call to accept the election results IF he wins, it’s going to be a long 18 days until Election Day.”