The October 18, 2016 Thread

PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–GWU Battleground–CLINTON 47, Trump 39
NATIONAL–Monmouth–CLINTON 50, Trump 38
NATIONAL–NBC News/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 46, Trump 40
NATIONAL–CBS News/New York Times–CLINTON 51, Trump 40
ALASKA–Lake Research Partners–TRUMP 37, Clinton 36
NORTH CAROLINA–CNN/ORC–CLINTON 48, Trump 47
OHIO–Quinnipiac–CLINTON 45, TRUMP 45
OHIO–CNN/ORC–TRUMP 48, Clinton 44
FLORIDA–Quinnipiac–CLINTON 48, Trump 44
PENNSYLVANIA–Quinnipiac–CLINTON 47, Trump 41
NEVADA–CNN/ORC–CLINTON 46, Trump 44
COLORADO–Quinnipiac–CLINTON 45, Trump 37
LOUISIANA–JMC Analytics–TRUMP 45, Clinton 38
UTAH–Rasmussen–TRUMP 30, McMullin 29, Clinton 28
NEW MEXICO–Zia Poll–CLINTON 46, Trump 36
CALIFORNIA–SurveyUSA–CLINTON 56, Trump 30
ARIZONA–HighGround–CLINTON 39, Trump 37

“Three weeks until Election Day, the Trump campaign and the RNC are at risk of letting historically red Arizona slip away,” NBC News reports. Said GOP operative Matthew Benson: “Barring something unforeseen, Trump is going to lose Arizona, and you’re still not seeing the type of activity you’d expect to see if he expects to save it.”

“The campaign has placed few resources in the state. There are five staffers aiding Trump’s bid, paid for by a combination of the campaign, the RNC and the Arizona Republican Party.”

From tonight's Trump rally: pic.twitter.com/g1MtfIAvFV

— Angelo Carusone (@GoAngelo) October 18, 2016

The Washington Post on Trump’s Echo Chamber: “He is preaching to the converted. He is lashing out at anyone who is not completely loyal. He is detaching himself from and delegitimizing the institutions of American political life. And he is proclaiming conspiracies everywhere — in polls (rigged), in debate moderators (biased) and in the election itself (soon to be stolen).”

“In the presidential campaign’s home stretch, Donald Trump is fully inhabiting his own echo chamber. The Republican nominee has turned inward, increasingly isolated from the country’s mainstream and leaders of his own party, and determined to rouse his most fervent supporters with dire warnings that their populist movement could fall prey to dark and collusive forces.”

Hillary Clinton is leading by the largest national margin for a Dem since Johnson in 1964. CNN just asked, "Why is she not leading by more?"

— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) October 18, 2016

“As Democrats aim to capitalize on this year’s Republican turmoil and start building back their own decimated bench, former Attorney General Eric Holder will chair a new umbrella group focused on redistricting reform—with the aim of taking on the gerrymandering that’s left the party behind in statehouses and made winning a House majority far more difficult,” Politico reports.

“The new group, called the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, was developed in close consultation with the White House. President Barack Obama himself has now identified the group—which will coordinate campaign strategy, direct fundraising, organize ballot initiatives and put together legal challenges to state redistricting maps—as the main focus of his political activity once he leaves office.”

Clinton pouring in millions on turnout in MO/IN/AZ. Not just about her, cld be major in these 3 states' Senate races https://t.co/8mzKW9oRtR pic.twitter.com/C0MZGnCybr

— Taniel (@Taniel) October 17, 2016

Wall Street Journal: “Donald Trump, trailing in opinion polls and facing new accusations by women of unwanted sexual contact, has begun arguing he will win the election on a surge of silent backers who have gone undetected by surveys and the political establishment … His theory — which others view skeptically — holds that fear of social stigma prevents some voters from admitting they back him, including when talking to pollsters.”

“If we lose the Senate, do you know who becomes chair of the Senate Budget Committee? A guy named Bernie Sanders.” https://t.co/zYoqSZnRBQ

— The Nation (@thenation) October 17, 2016

Rick Klein on Trump’s shameful closing argument: “And so it will end for Donald Trump with words that could be far more damaging than the insults or innuendo or labels or lies. Trump is closing with allegations of massive conspiracy, suggesting a corporate/media/international cabal to boost the Clintons that would be unprecedented in scope. Even if there’s no evidence for any of it, Trump is now using words (and Tweets) that directly undermine faith in American democracy. (Notably, after Newt Gingrich gave him a partial out on ‘This Week,’ saying he meant media conspiracy and not precinct-level irregularities that would leave Americans skeptical of the results, Trump Tweeted to clarify that he means both. Mike Pence and Paul Ryan are among those who are signaling they disagree.)”

“By saying the election itself is ‘rigged,’ Trump is playing a dangerous game during a tense time. With each passing day, the possibility of a gracious loser, in keeping with American traditions of power transfer, diminishes with fresh allegations.”

The craziest thing about Clinton's speeches to Goldman Sachs? She kinda predicts the rise of Trump. By @dandrezner https://t.co/xZdeWG5sRj

— Adam B. Kushner (@AdamBKushner) October 17, 2016

Jonathan Chait on whether Trump is crazy: “If you do assume that Trump is acting rationally, then it is very hard to explain his campaign moves as steps in a considered plan to get elected president, and much easier to explain them as steps toward monetizing his audience through a media empire. This theory would explain why Trump handed control of his campaign to a media mogul (Steve Bannon), why he has needlessly attacked fellow members of his party, and why he has risked demoralizing his own voters by repeatedly calling the election rigged. These are logical decisions if his end goal is to wrest the intense loyalty of a large minority of the country away from other conservative organs and center it around a media brand he can control.”

“On the other hand, it is highly plausible that these moves make no sense at all, that Trump is simply an uncontrollable madman lashing around, and perhaps the gestures toward creating a media empire reflect Kushner’s strategy rather than his own.”

Contrasting responses to the firebombing of the Republican HQ in Orange County, North Carolina. pic.twitter.com/VNSNcuUVOy

— Jacob Goldstein (@GoldsteinStreet) October 16, 2016

Democrats also raised, in 4 hours, $13,000 to repair all the damage to the building. Given Trump’s reaction, you have to think about the words ‘Reichstag Fire.’ Don’t know what it means, look it up.

Josh Marshall in the same vein:

Predictably, Donald Trump has publicly blamed Hillary Clinton and cited the attack as a reason that “now we have to win.” In other words, Trump is now arguing that victory is either necessary as payback for the fire or that victory is necessary to defend supporters against future attacks.

The ATF is involved in the investigation. I think it is wise not to make too many assumptions about the intentions or identity of the arsonist. On its face, the attack looks like it is anti-Republican in nature. But recent elections have also witnessed a number of incidents, either attempted or otherwise in which supporters of one party carried out attacks either on themselves or their own partisans in an effort to tarnish the other party. In other words, false flag attacks, usually of an extremely clumsy and quickly discovered nature.

Remember the Pittsburgh woman in the reverse B carved on her face? That she carved herself and then claimed that three African American Obama supporters did it?

Harry Enten: “We could be looking at the largest gender gap in a presidential election since at least 1952: Men are favoring the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, in typical numbers, but a historically overwhelming share of women say they will vote for the Democrat, Hillary Clinton.”

“As my colleague Nate Silver has pointed out, women are winning this election for Clinton. Between the historic nature of Clinton’s candidacy, Trump’s record of misogynistic comments and now the Trump tape and allegations of sexual assault against Trump, American men and women are incredibly split on the 2016 election. But that split isn’t symmetrical. In an average of the most recent live-interview polls from each pollster to test the race in October, Clinton holds a 20-percentage-point advantage among women, and Trump is winning more narrowly among men.”

Where does Trump get his talking points from? Often this alt-right conspiracy theorist, Alex Jones. (Watch all the way to the end.) pic.twitter.com/87zLGAbvyG

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) October 16, 2016

Gerald Seib on the two different strategies for the final debate tomorrow: “It’s not unusual for a debate to take on such meaning. What is unusual is the stark contrast in the strategic choices and motivations facing the two candidates heading into the same event.”

“For Republican Donald Trump, the question is whether the kind of scorched-earth tactics he has employed in the last week—full-bore attacks on his opponent and on the legitimacy of the very system by which presidents are chosen—really translate to his benefit in a debate format.

“For Democrat Hillary Clinton, the question is whether to engage in the fight with Mr. Trump as she did in the last debate, or instead pivot beyond attacks and counterattacks to try to occupy some higher ground in the closing chapter of the campaign.”