The October 11, 2016 Thread
PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–NBC News/WSJ–CLINTON 52, Trump 38
NATIONAL–PRRI/Atlantic–CLINTON 49, Trump 38
NATIONAL–NBC News/Survey Monkey–CLINTON 51, Trump 44
NATIONAL–Rasmussen–CLINTON 45, Trump 38
NATIONAL–Politico/Morning Consult–CLINTON 42, Trump 37
VIRGINIA–Roanoke College–CLINTON 45, Trump 36
NORTH CAROLINA–High Point–CLINTON 43, Trump 42
WISCONSIN–Loras–CLINTON 43, Trump 35
PENNSYLVANIA–Susquehanna–CLINTON 44, Trump 40
Body Language experts had some interesting reads on the debate on Sunday:
A body language expert said she was worried that Donald Trump might physically assault Hillary Clinton during Sunday night’s presidential debate. Janine Driver — a former investigator with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives — said Trump loomed and lurked behind Clinton in response to her power move. “Look at what happens, Hillary is going to his side of the stage,” Driver said. “She’s standing in front of him — what’s he going to do? Sit down? Go to her seat?” Clinton effectively prevented Trump from interrupting her by standing in front of him, said Driver, president of the Body Language Institute and a frequent talk show guest.
“That’s her power move,” Driver said. Trump tried to lower his stress by pacing around behind Clinton, but she said his movement was also “a pre-assault indicator.”
"As [Trump's] fortunes sour, anger is trumping cogent calculation, and his defiance appears to be increasing…" https://t.co/DXPgYTABxJ
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) October 11, 2016
Matt Yglesias says Republicans are realizing they are wrong:
But what Republican Party leaders — from formal party leaders like Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell to lesser elected officials and quasi-party people like the Chamber of Commerce — should be learning this weekend is that they were wrong.
Not that Trump made a mistake and he needs to apologize, but that they made a mistake and need to apologize. The evidence was there, in spades, all along for anyone who wanted to see. But partisan and ideological incentives made them not want to see. The audio is vivid and stark and cuts through that fog of wishful thinking and self-deception. The people whose eyes its opened shouldn’t be demanding apologies from Trump, they should be offering apologies for their role in letting him get much closer to the White House than he ever should have.
The South Oval @OhioState is a sea of supporters tonight, because college students are going to help Hillary win Ohio this year! #OHHillYes pic.twitter.com/ZXxows5kNB
— Hillary for Ohio (@HillaryforOH) October 10, 2016
18,000 at Hillary’s Columbus event yesterday.
[On Saturday], after I watched more of the heckling [of Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney and Joe Heck by Trump supporters] and saw Trump fixing on the same as a show of support for him, it occurred to me that the presidential race’s impact on Congress could be dramatically greater than we’ve imagined. This isn’t a matter of people being so deeply outraged about the tape. It’s more structural than that. The party leadership, at least as of last night, is in the midst of abandoning Trump. They’re not quite there yet. But they’re close. They probably saw overnight polls crating on Friday. I’ve seen various reports of private campaign polls registering this as a first response to the tape. It’s worth remembering that even 10% of Republicans moving away from Trump would show up in a big way on those reports. But seeing those polls, retreating to their own instinctive suspicion and in many cases hostility toward Trump, they didn’t give a lot of immediate thought to where the bulk of their voters stand. This poll makes pretty clear – as the booing and heckling did anecdotally – that they’re with Trump.
Some problems have no real solutions. The GOP’s relatively strong performance over recent months has been rooted in their ability to keep Trump and Anti-Trump or at least Non-Trump factions living under one roof. Not happily or comfortably, but still united behind one candidate and one list of congressional candidates. Given all that has happened that’s actually quite a feat.
That no longer seems possible now after the release of the tape. Key embattled senate candidates have already rejected Trump. For them there’s no going back. If Ryan and Co continue on their current path of cutting ties, that seems likely to spur an open and massive conflict within the party on the eve of the election. For anyone in a competitive seat, that’s going to create an impossible task. If the party is split down in the middle over Trump, how do a congressional candidate avoid sizable drop offs of support from one side or another in that conflict? I don’t see how you do.
The GOP civil war goes nuclear: https://t.co/hNVcqfT5ie pic.twitter.com/hF2IzaCxp8
— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) October 11, 2016
Roxane Gay at The New York Times writes:
Hillary Clinton is dealing with a unique challenge — having to stay sharp with an incompetent opponent. She managed to remain on message throughout the debate. She offered several specifics while always clearly demarcating the difference between her and Mr. Trump. She demonstrated grace under pressure. And in the end, when asked to say something positive about her opponent, she reminded us of just how much she outclasses Mr. Trump as a political candidate. She complimented his children despite how easy and satisfying it would have been to say the truth — that no, there is nothing commendable about Donald Trump.
Yeah, she couldn’t have done that. The media would have taken her apart.
In the end, and somewhat ironically, we've never had more access to a candidate and her inner circle's emails than we have w Clinton
— Christopher Hayes (@chrislhayes) October 10, 2016
I have been making this point for a year: Hillary is the most transparent candidate to ever run for office. We know everything about her. We have read her emails and now we are reading her staff’s emails.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) says he will not pull back his late endorsement of Donald Trump, despite the release of a video showing the GOP nominee braggin about sexual assault, Politico reports. Said Cruz: “I am supporting the Republican nominee because I think Hillary Clinton is an absolute disaster. Now my differences with Donald, I have articulated at great length during the campaign. And I tried all my might.”
2016 in a nutshell: Many liberals in my feed sharing a George Will column https://t.co/pZT0uGu4fN
— Nick Gourevitch (@nickgourevitch) October 11, 2016
True on both counts (that I am a liberal sharing a George Will column, and that Trump can be a chemotherapy for the GOP, but only if the GOP has the courage to accept the treatment, and that is: cut the racists and the religious right loose by telling them you don’t want their votes).
“Top Democratic strategists are moving to capitalize on the extraordinary events of the last several days, now believing they have a real shot of retaking the House majority after a slew of Republican lawmakers renounced their support of Donald Trump over his lewd comments captured on video,” the Washington Post reports.
“Democrats are working quickly to ensure that no Republican lawmaker who has ever expressed support for their party’s presidential nominee can easily separate themselves from Trump following his 2005 comments about groping and kissing women in unwanted advances.”
Here’s how Trump’s current polling compares to where Mitt Romney stood at this point. https://t.co/QMfwascxLO pic.twitter.com/3o0aGYn2as
— Janie Velencia (@JanieVelencia) October 11, 2016
Priorities USA, the leading super PAC trying to elect Hillary Clinton, “is preparing to expand beyond the presidential race and potentially run television ads focused on a handful of competitive Senate races,” CNN reports.
“According to a source familiar with the plans, Priorities USA is currently producing television ads to potentially air in Senate contests in North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania — all competitive races that are also battleground states for the presidential race.”
Just posted: The GOP tumbles toward anarchy: "It's every person for himself or herself." My latest w/ @costareportshttps://t.co/C8pp4Gbrmj
— Philip Rucker (@PhilipRucker) October 10, 2016
First Read: “You have a good chunk of the party criticizing Trump and demanding him to drop out of the race, and you have the other part (especially Trump’s supporters) fighting back. Thirty days before a national election, that hurts voter and volunteer morale, it dampens turnout, and it all makes it harder to win races up and down the ballot. When it becomes every politician for himself or herself — we saw this play out with Republicans in 2006, and with Democrats in 2014 — it usually doesn’t turn out well for that party.”
FYI — most every poll has Donald Trump losing the debate. the @politico/@MorningConsult poll has HRC winning 42/28 https://t.co/2MskZ4ToPq
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 11, 2016
Washington Post: “Trump’s turbulent campaign, on display here at Sunday night’s second presidential debate with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, has damaged far more than his own White House prospects. It threatens to diminish an entire generation of Republican leaders who stood by him and excused his behavior after attacks against women, the disabled, Latino immigrants, Muslim Americans, Syrian refugees, prisoners of war, Gold Star parents and others.”
Said GOP strategist Steve Schmidt: “There is nobody who holds any position of responsibility who in private conversations views Donald Trump as equipped mentally, morally and intellectually to be the president of the United States. But scores of Republican leaders have failed a fundamental test of moral courage and political leadership in not speaking truth to the American people about what is so obvious.”
This is a great feature, but events are moving too quickly for it. All that stuff about GOP divisions and Republicans abandoning Trump has been proven false by the events of the past 24 hours.
ALL Republicans are solidly behind Trump and will remain so through election day. This will be closer than it looks right now. I have Clinton by 1% point in the popular vote and the 285 to 253 in the electoral college.
There is simply no way Republicans like Charlie Copeland will abandon the nominee.
I save stuff I read throughout the day in a single Word document. It ends up being 10 pages long. Then, in the morning, I review it and delete half of it, because it ends up being out of date or exceeded by other events. So yes, events do move quickly.
And I appreciate the Debbie Downer Pessimist Role you have played all year. Keeps us realistic. But sometimes, Jason, you do it too much and you overestimate Republicans. This is one of those times.
Let me re-state my point a little less Debbie Downerishly.
If you are seeing a big Clinton win based on Republican defections from Trump, you are misreading the mood of Republicans.
I don’t see a big Clinton win based on defections from Trump. But I see a far more likely (almost inevitable at this point) win for Clinton because the Donald has taken a Humpty Dumpty-like fall from his wall and there’s no way he and the GOP can put themselves back together again in four weeks.
True, the disarray is hurting GOP candidates for Senate and House, but you still have to ask: where else are they going to go?
Trump’s indiscretions aren’t going to prompt disaffected Republican loyalists (regardless of whether their primary devotion is to Trump or to the GOP) to vote for a Democrat for a House or Senate seat. Abandoning Trump or punishing a down-ballot nominee for abandoning Trump will not help the GOP achieve its goals — control of the White House and Congress.
So I think the vast majority of Republicans will hold their noses and vote a straight ticket. While the Republican base isn’t large enough to bring Trump a victory, the rampant gerrymandering of House districts nationwide leaves enough safe GOP seats for them to maintain control of the House (albeit with a slimmer majority), no matter how much worse the rift within the party becomes.
The solitary thing I put to Trump’s credit, and the way I would have answered the last question at the debate? Unlike how a Cruz or probably even a Rubio would have, he has left gay people alone, and in so doing has made it a nonissue in this campaign and in all future presidential campaigns. There of course will be more skirmishes left to fight, but this particular war has been won sooner than I ever thought possible. Gay people are now finally more or less members of our society.
However, exactly why he has left gay people alone is a mystery to me when he has thrown every other piece of red meat to his base. I find it hard to believe that he considered it bad strategy when everything else he has said and done has also been bad strategy. I likewise find it hard to believe, for obvious reasons, that he genuinely cares about gay people. But regardless, this is to his credit.
Don’t worry, Andrew, Trump’s running mate has the gay bashing/hating 100% covered.
andrew, It is interesting to me that you take the jump to – gay is now a nonissue in this and future presidential campaigns. I guess I still think of Trump as an aberration that shook up this election but left the fearful, bigoted GOP more or less intact.
While Trump hasn’t been as publicly anti-gay as he has been anti-anyone-else-who-isn’t-a-white-man, he has made several remarks that suggest he is no ally to LGBTQ people. He has not left gay people alone. http://www.hrc.org/2016RepublicanFacts/donald-trump-opposes-nationwide-marriage-equality
I don’t see a big Clinton win from defections from Trump, either. But GOP voters could stay home and that would be pretty much the same thing. Or they could write in Mike Pence’s name ( a thing I’ve been hearing all morning). And/or independents could swing big for Clinton OR stay home. There’s options for GOP voter depression that don’t involve defections from Trump.
Once Trump ruminates enough on how Anderson Cooper screwed him over the gay bashing will begin.
Sen. Jeff Sessions doing his Todd Aiken 2.0 and saying that grabbing a woman’s genitals isn’t sexual assault: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jeff-sessions-trump-sexual-assault_us_57fbb902e4b068ecb5e06988
Yes I know all of that – by “nonissue”, I dont mean that Trump is supportive of gay people or that future candidates will leave them alone. What I meant to point out was that the prevailing culture of our nation has moved to accept gay people, and Trump’s non-emphasis of anti-gay rhetoric will, in my view, prove to be a major step in allowing that to happen and in making any future anti-gay threats by Republican presidential candidates seem passe.
Wonder how Sessions would describe a man grabbing his genitals and kissing him.
So many have a huge blind spot when it comes to this behavior towards women.
He’d probably call it a typical Tuesday bathroom encounter.
*rimshot*
I think that the disgust level has risen to the point where people will more than likely stay home. Or they may just ignore the Presidential race and focus on the down tickets. Disgust will more often will be result in despair than it would be with directed action.
Might be some gains for 3rd party and some minor gains for Ds but regardless it translates into losses for Rs. Just by party association they are tainted. The DNC will increase its efforts to tie Rs to the Trump, putting them between a rock and hard place, by forcing them to disavow Trump and angering the base or just plain old hiding out for the next 30 days hoping that by keeping their mouths shut they will anger the fewest people and maybe be perceived as not like Trump.
There is simply no way for the Trump campaign to recover in the short time remaining, so it’s guns blazing and go down standing on his feet (and maybe take as many with him as he can).
Anyway, barring any late October surprises, it’s Madame President, which will result in a recession for the fashion industry but boom times for wonks who will inundate us with facts, figures, and policy treatises. Regardless, I will rest easy because the person who controls the nuclear arsenal is sane. And in a world where many leaders are not, sanity in the White House is absolutely critical to world peace.
“Madame President … will result in a recession for the fashion industry.”
I think not. I think every designer alive is going to shoot for the instant recognition they’ll get should Madame choose to attire herself in their creations. I think it might spur a Golden Age of business couture.
@pandora: “Veep” explored that very issue. “Check ’em, don’t neglect ’em.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/fashion/hillary-clinton-ralph-lauren.html?_r=0
“I think it might spur a Golden Age of business couture.”
In thinking it over, I guess you could be right, it’s just that I can’t envision the stereotypical fashionista taking on that challenge. Business couture feels like an oxymoron.
“Disgust will more often result in despair than it would result in directed action.” I agree with this based on my frequent disgust with Dems who run as deficit hawk Republicans.
Hell yes, I’m looking at you John Carney and Chris Coons.
@DG: I swear I did not see that story before I commented! Seriously, she’ll be under pressure not to play favorites, and the industry press will cover it (sorry) as if a private server was involved.
Meanwhile, am I paranoid or wrong to think that Trump’s confident talk might spring from assurances from his Russian buddies that they have hacked into voting machine systems in enough states to steal the election? Fear comes from ignorance, and I don’t know enough about computer systems to know if it’s a realistic fear.
They’d only need to hack Florida and Ohio to swing the election, and I know Ohio is a mess.
Thanks, anonymous!!! I think I’ll purchase the “canadianliberal.net” domain just to hedge my bets… You are all welcome to continue on that site as I’m sure President Trump, w/ the behind-the-curtain aid of the KGB, will be able to shut down any resistance websites and/or imprison their operators.
@Jason: Oh, I assume American agents of destruction — I forget the Ohio Secretary of State’s name — will ensure a victory in Ohio, no Russian interference required. No Democrat will win Ohio again until we go back to using black marks on potsherds.
potsherds
Potsherds? I heard that stuff will really get ya stoned
@J “They’d only need to hack Florida and Ohio to swing the election, and I know Ohio is a mess.”
She’s on track for a 347 EC landslide victory. If she loses both FL and OH, then she only wins with 300… And even then, she still has 30 votes to spare, so she could fumble and also lose NV, IA, and NC and still walk away with a win.
THAT is why Trump you can bet on Trump to win and get 8-1 odds.