Open Thread for Wednesday, October 5, 2016
PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–Ipsos–CLINTON 42, Trump 36
NORTH CAROLINA–Elon–CLINTON 45, Trump 39
NORTH CAROLINA–SurveyUSA–CLINTON 46, Trump 44
NEVADA–UNLV/Hart Research–CLINTON 44, Trump 41
PENNSYLVANIA–Monmouth–CLINTON 50, Trump 40
TENNESSEE–Middle Tn. State. Univ.–TRUMP 50, Trump 38
ILLINOIS–The Simon Poll/SIU–CLINTON 53, Trump 28
A new CNN/ORC poll finds that 48% of those who watched the vice presidential debate thought Gov. Mike Pence performed better while 42% said they thought Sen. Tim Kaine won. Which is fine. Kaine did what he needed to do, which was attack Trump and make Pence defend him, which Pence didn’t, which did not please you know who. More on that below….
Dan Balz: “Overall it was an unsatisfying, disjointed debate, as the two candidates brushed past specific questions to open up other arguments at will. It probably changed few minds and no doubt brought some encouragement to the bases of the two parties. In that way it was a typical vice-presidential debate.”
Jonathan Chait: “Pence provided an evening of escapist fantasy for conservative intellectuals who like to close their eyes and imagine their party has nominated a qualified, normal person for president. It is hard to see how he helped the cause of electing the actual nominee.”
Robert Costa: “It was a dutiful, deflective and prepared performance for a campaign that rarely fits that description. Instead of causing Trump or his aides campaign-changing headaches, Pence played it safe and, when he could, sought to reassure the movement conservatives he knows well and who have been wary of Trump’s murky populism. Beneath the smooth patter, however, there were significant cracks with Trump — especially with regard to Russia and its role in the war in Syria — that showcased how far Pence’s instincts stray from Trump’s.”
Glenn Thrush: “The Virginia senator has a reputation for being a nice guy, but he was given a hit man’s job on Tuesday. And the target was Trump, not Pence, whom the Clinton campaign regards as a political bit player who will vanish into obscurity after the election. Hence, Kaine’s task was a slightly awkward one: to aim over Pence and hit Trump. It didn’t really work, and not for lack of trying.”
Andrew Sullivan: “As for Kaine, I don’t think he appeared presidential; he failed to defend the past eight years clearly and aggressively enough; he did nothing to rouse the Obama coalition. He seemed like a classic politician. He was strong on abortion at the end, and on his faith. He seems like a hugely decent guy – but he missed a few moments to really expose Trump’s extremism the way he needed to.”
Pence had a much tougher job at the outset. After Donald Trump’s disastrous debate performance last week, Pence needed to do something to reverse the momentum. He didn’t do it. Aside from brushing aside what Trump has said, it’s not clear what his strategy was. On some issues, like Russia and Syria, Pence actually disagreed with Trump. All Kaine needed to do was make the debate about Donald Trump but he couldn’t do it either. He came off as nervous and overly rehearsed. He didn’t effectively call out Pence for denying basic facts about Trump. If you scored the debate on style, Pence probably won narrowly. He looked into the camera and came off as the calmer of the two. I suspect most instant polls will find Pence the winner. However, Kaine was a much better running mate. He defended the nominee at the top of his ticket. Pence wasn’t willing to do it.
After watching the debate, it’s clear that Kaine is running for vice president in 2016. But Pence sounded more like he’s running for president in 2020.
Libertarian vice presidential candidate William Weld told the Boston Globe “that he plans to focus exclusively on blasting Donald Trump over the next five weeks, a strategic pivot aimed at denying Trump the White House and giving himself a key role in helping to rebuild the GOP.”
“Weld’s comments in a Globe interview mark a major shift in his mission since he pledged at the Libertarian convention in May that he would remain a Libertarian for life and would do all he could to help elect his running mate, Gary Johnson, the former Republican governor of New Mexico.”
Ezra Klein tweeted “It sort of works in the debate, but Pence shaking head, saying “no he hasn’t” is going to look bad in ads next to Trump saying those things.”
Jamelle Bouie nailed it at Slate.com with a two-sentence summation: “Whether Kaine or Pence was polished and polite matters less than whether they gave a fair and good-faith accounting of themselves and their politics to the public. And by that standard, Mike Pence was a clear and abysmal failure.”
Tehama Lopez Bunyasi, an Assistant Professor in the School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University, explained at an NBC News Latino panel: “A vice presidential candidate should be able to defend the person at the top of the ticket. Kaine not only defended Clinton, he made a thoughtful case for her. But, when Kaine asked Pence to defend the litany of offensive statements Trump has made about Mexicans, women, Senator John McCain, Indiana-born judge Gonzalo Curiel, President Barack Obama, and the African American community, Pence simply didn’t, and it is on this point where he most clearly ‘struck out
Kaine himself didn’t always come off as well as I might have expected. But he did great for his running mate, sometimes by defending her in ways that are difficult for her to do herself but far more often by reading out crate loads of opposition research on Trump and simply reminding people of all the stuff he’s said. How many times did he say Trump’s sons say they get a lot of their money from Russia? At least twice, maybe three times. Pence, on the other hand, came off fairly well in the Kaine v Pence debate. He probably helped himself a decent amount for 2020, though for reasons I’ll discuss at any time I doubt that will ever happen for him. But he left his running mate all but undefended. In some cases, maybe most cases, Pence was simply hard pressed to defend things that were simply indefensible. But, as I’ve said, he didn’t seem to have his heart in it. He tossed out some obligatory denials, shook his head wearily and that was about it.
People don’t vote for vice presidential candidates. Especially in this campaign, with two presidential candidates whose public personas loom so large over the political nation, the veeps barely hold any of the spotlight. This is about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Kaine landed lots of punches on Donald Trump, while Pence left Trump largely undefended. Pence got in very few hits on Clinton, but not many. Whether Pence made a tacit decision to abandon his boss or simply wasn’t up to the challenge I don’t know. But the net effect was that he let Kaine land punch after punch on Trump, largely undefended. That’s really all that matters.
CNN’s John King, reporting from a source close to Trump, that the reviews that Pence did better then he did won’t go over well with Trump
— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 5, 2016
Ron Brownstein says Clinton and Trump are Shuffling the Electoral Map:
This reconfiguration largely leaves the same states at the center of the electoral deck, but shuffles which party looks to which state for a win. It’s a shift symbolized by Clinton’s clear decision to focus more effort on Florida and even North Carolina than on Ohio, the state traditionally considering the tipping point in presidential elections. (Clinton finally returned to Ohio Monday after nearly a month-long absence.)
“While the same ten states are in play by and large that we had in 2012 they have definitely been reordered,” said Mitch Stewart, President Obama’s 2012 field director and a founding partner of the Democratic consulting firm 270 Strategies…
That new geographic pattern is rooted in the race’s defining demographic trends. In the six major national polls released just before last week’s first presidential debate, Trump led among white voters without a college education by resounding margins of 20 to 32 percentage points. But he confronted deficits of 40-50 points among non-white voters, and was facing more resistance than any previous Republican nominee in the history of modern polling among college-educated whites: five of the six surveys showed him trailing among them by margins of two-to-eleven percentage points (while he managed only to run even in the sixth.) The race is on track to produce the widest gap ever between the preferences of college-and non-college whites, while Trump may reach record lows among voters of color.
Trump adviser on debate after Pence passed up opportunities to defend him: "Pence won overall, but lost with Trump"
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 5, 2016
more from adviser on Trump reaction to strong Pence debate following poor Trump showing last week: "he can't stand to be upstaged"
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 5, 2016
Team Clinton seems pretty happy that tonight was largely about Donald Trump.
— Gabriel Debenedetti (@gdebenedetti) October 5, 2016
Kaine had a plan for this debate and he has executed relentlessly with a smile and the Clinton Campaign is better off for it
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) October 5, 2016
Incredible mashup of all the things Pence insisted Trump never said – that Trump did say. By @RiegerReport https://t.co/8KXUf6OLRL
— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 5, 2016
So was this performance by Pence essentially the opener for “Pence 2020”?
Looks that way, Brian.
What I found amazing is how what Pence is famous for (de-funding PP, punishing women who have abortions and miscarriages and his decades long attacks on LGBT people/rights/issues) became a footnote. Can someone explain how LGBT issues didn’t even come up – especially since it is an issue Pence built his career on. (LGBT conversion therapy, Religious Liberty bill, pushing gay marriage ban) How was this not addressed at length? Punishing women and LGBT people are his signature issues.
Pence may have been passable last night, but the fact-checking today is killing him. He’s a liar – just like Trump.
I love that it is killing Trump to be hearing all the talk on Fox News that Pence should have been the nominee.
Kaine acquitted himself well. To me he came off as Clinton’s Biden (without Biden’s foot in mouth disease). Loyal to a fault and team player, it will be interesting to see if he can translate the VP experience into a campaign for himself 4 or 8 years hence.
I’m glad you all got your fix last night. I’d hate to see anyone dope-sick. I’m afraid any analysis of that debate is another clue to the rampant pareidolia that seems to inflict you kids. I’m considering a call to the CDC.
How about a tortured 1,000 word post on potential reax from the “undecided?” Maybe Buzzfeed or Vox has some bullet points. I’m sure there’s some really viral Vines out there. Step to.
DG – Thanks for the view from Laputa.
For everyone else…
“Pareidolia (/pærᵻˈdoʊliə/ parr-i-DOH-lee-ə) is a psychological phenomenon involving a stimulus (an image or a sound) wherein the mind perceives a familiar pattern of something where none actually exists.
Common examples are perceived images of animals, faces, or objects in cloud formations, the man in the moon, the moon rabbit, and hidden messages within recorded music played in reverse or at higher- or lower-than-normal speeds.”
I’m not sure what Dorian wants a political blog to write about during an election year. Maybe the latest episode of The Voice? Seriously, Dorian, you’re being silly.
Someone has to say it. Fuck me. All this post game breakdown shit reminds me of that creepy guy who hosts the reality wrap-up program on Bravo TV. After an hour of nothing television we recap it for another hour.
Why does this observation comes from a Swiftian island in the sky?
“how LGBT issues didn’t even come up”
Kaine’s job was to raise Trump’s negatives, not Pence’s. Kaine had his hands full getting in all his prepared talking points. Besides, I don’t think LGBT issues have any persuadables out there.
That Bravo show is the worst show. I have to agree with DG on that.
How about this, p? Be honest. Nothing was learned last night. Nobody was persuaded and no one will remember a word of it in a week’s time. Stop using this excuse that “this is a political blog” to analyze nonsense. There are plenty of other related topics. Moreover, making my point is also part of the political discourse, no? Pointing out that millions are fixated on a big empty nothing is a salient point, and not at all silly. What is silly is that you see what you want to see.
When the two big topics here are Pence 2020 and the issues that weren’t discussed (LGBT) it’s a very clear indication that I’m right.
(@Jason – Thanks for the footnote.)
“Nothing was learned last night.”
These debates aren’t about learning. Lincoln and Douglas would be terrible at them. they are about scoring points with witty jabs and not having points scored on you. They are about launching the perfect bon mot that can lead the morning news and (God willing) enter into the zeitgeist of the campaign.
I would have thought you knew that. Anyway, that’s why I don’t watch. I watch the Bravo recap.
@DG: Perhaps your observations, which I at least value, would go down smoother if you made the criticism of all the political junkies and not just the ones here. It’s one thing to say the punch tastes like piss, and quite another to piss in the punchbowl.
Are you claiming that Pence’s performance was just more of the same in VP debates – that he defended Trump and that is nothing new under the sun? Are you saying we shouldn’t discuss the way Pence flat-out lied? Are you saying that portraying Pence as the “grown up statesmen” is just the way it is, and forget about trying to educate people on Trump’s statements, Pence’s positions and lies?
This is a political blog. There was a political debate last night. There’s a discussion. You have a problem with that – then again, you were the one who told us months ago, during the primary, to ignore Trump because he didn’t matter. How’s that prediction work out for you?
That’s a story you believe so you can continue to accept the gavage that’s jammed down your gullet. Nothing happened last night that will “enter the zeitgeist of the campaign.” (Actually, you should probably be fined or flogged for even writing that sentence.) But the good news is you’re doing what they want you to do. Way to step to.
Meanwhile, I have puzzled till my puzzler was sore over the true source of Hillary hatred, and why she was singled out for two dozen years of negative propaganda. I think I might have found it in this New Yorker story from 1996 by Henry Louis Gates, back when he was doing reporting-based journalism on such things:
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1996/02/26/hating-hillary
I’d tell you my takeaway, but the story’s well worth reading, especially if you think you remember everything from those pre-Lewinsky times. It shows why Hillary’s election almost certainly will be the last act of a long-running political drama.
And my view is part of the discussion!
Anonymous – Rest assured my views are applicable to all! I’m just speaking to the people here, because, well, they’re here. It’s all garbage. And what’s worse is the contortions everyone performs to try to wring anything tangible (a.k.a. usable as internet “content”) from nothing. These strained arguments about how this or that “matters” when it clearly doesn’t, except for the people who had preconceived notions.
No one here claimed that a VP debate would change or impact the election. No one.
Hurricane Matthew is on the horizon, but I guess we shouldn’t write about it since we all know what a hurricane can do – even worse if a weather blog writes about it. I have no idea what you think we should be discussing. Would you like to write a guest post? Send it to me and I’ll publish it.
Nothing happening that enters “the zeitgeist of the campaign.” Is also a story. And a story that I’m not sad to read this fine morning.
As for my fines and floggings, my private life is my private life.
I guess the only thing less important than talking about a meaningless debate, is talking about talking about a meaningless debate.
I think it’s amusing, if not important, that Trump is getting jealous of his own VP’s positive debate coverage. Sure. Pence won. Pence did GREAT! Pence should have been the nominee. Trump is a loser who should drop out and let his VP take over…. let’s get THAT narrative into the zeitgeist and let Trump wallow in it.
Jason – I see in your future a second career. Proprietor of a kinky sex club called “Fines & Floggings.”
@DG: Your points are valid, IMO, but your framing is “Wake up, sheeple!”
Re: Debate
tl;dw
I suppose most interesting wrinkle is the glimpse at the post-Trump GOP landscape: Those aren’t steaming craters, they’re hot tubs. They’re just going to pretend Trump never happened and hope nobody notices.
And why wouldn’t they? The “conservative movement” has stuck its fingers in its collective ears and trilled “La, la, la!” since Bill Clinton’s election, and until now they’ve never suffered for it. So Pence, like Rubio, Ryan and Cruz, is making plans for 2020 while walking through the minefield of 2016.
So Pence, like Rubio, Ryan and Cruz are going to go back to racial dog whistles and “we aren’t the white nationalist party, just look at Clarence Thomas.” ?
Hard to fathom how they’d be able to do that with what the base now expects in terms of red meat.
The GOP longs for the day we move past simple racial/ethnic/social hatred and they can be the party of “shitty people of all colors/creeds/orientations/genders”.
Don King / Caitlyn Jenner 2024
Ben, LOL. I’ve always thought that the GOP could easily get 45% of the gay male vote for the simple reason that shitty, greedy jerks are as evenly represented in that community as they are in America in general.
Despite the best attempts by liberals, the alt right has a real lock on the outrage industry. And I’m convinced that they prefer it that way. It is difficult to be outraged when you are the party/group in power. But how can you be outraged about the FEMA camps when you are FEMA? If the right were government, they would have to actually try to govern and fix problems rather than tweeting about them at 3 AM.
Charlie Pierce notes that We Caught a Glimpse of the Republican Party’s Future Last Night:
@p “Can someone explain how LGBT issues didn’t even come up – especially since it is an issue Pence built his career on.”
Don’t damage the desired opposition.
I’m guessing that the DNC would love to see Pence on top of the ticket on 2020.