Open Thread for Monday, October 3, 2016

A new WDIV/Detroit News poll finds Donald Trump gets 0% support in Detroit, Michigan.

NATIONAL–Morning Consult–CLINTON 42, Trump 36

It’s a dramatic bump for Clinton: Trump led by one point before their first debate.

VIRGINIA–Christopher Newport Univ.–CLINTON 42, Trump 35
NEW MEXICO–Albuquerque Journal–CLINTON 35, Trump 31

This poll seems like an outlier since it gives former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson 24% of the vote. Johnson only won 3.5% of the vote in 2012, and had only scored in the high teens in previous polls this year. So color me skeptical.

ILLINOIS–Victory Research–CLINTON 49, Trump 35
MICHIGAN–Target Insyght–CLINTON 46, Trump 41
NEW JERSEY–Rutgers University–CLINTON 50, Trump 29

A new Associated Press-GfK poll found that nearly 7 in 10 third-party supporters say they could still change their minds. “They are about evenly split between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump if forced to choose between just those two. Nearly one-third refused to pick or said they would just not vote if it came down to that.”

I hear this guy is big in Ohio https://t.co/Y8dU6HvLY0

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) October 3, 2016

“The Republican Party, after seizing control of more state legislative chambers than at any time in its history, is largely playing defense in the 2016 election,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Thirteen of the 18 chambers most likely to see the opposition party win control are held by Republicans… Among majorities in play are state Senates in Washington, West Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, which could flip to Democratic control with just one seat change. Republicans are also defending narrow House majorities in Minnesota, New Hampshire and New Mexico, where polls show Mrs. Clinton leading Republican rival Donald Trump.”

Lotsa pundits today. How bout some voters? They’re pissed—and doubting DJT's biz smarts. Read @daveweigel @wpjenna: https://t.co/3PF76klh6c

— Philip Rucker (@PhilipRucker) October 3, 2016

Ezra Klein says the last week proved that Trump is unfit for the Presidency. I say the last six years, but why quibble?

The problem isn’t that Trump is cruel, though he is. The problem isn’t that Trump is boorish, though he is. The problem isn’t that Trump is undisciplined, though he is. The problem is that Trump is predictable and controllable. […]

There is a part of me that believes the entire Alicia Machado trap was a long con to bait Trump into berating Clinton for her husband’s infidelities at the second debate, and making his past marital betrayals fair game for the press.

What is extraordinary in all this is how enthusiastically Trump has taken the Clinton campaign’s bait, and how unconcerned he’s been with the fact that they meticulously planned all this in advance to damage him. It is almost not fair to call what the Clinton campaign created a trap. They publicly, explicitly, and warmly invited him to participate in their campaign strategy, and he accepted their invitation, because the satisfaction he receives from settling old scores and venting his rage is greater than the satisfaction he receives from leading in national opinion polls.

In the context of a presidential campaign, all this is amusing. It will make a wonderful chapter in the next edition of Game Change. But imagine that this wasn’t a presidential campaign. Imagine it was the Trump presidency. And imagine it wasn’t Hillary Clinton trying to bait Trump into attacking Alicia Machado, but ISIS trying to bait Trump into attacking Iraq, or Vladimir Putin trying to bait Trump into breaking with NATO, or Angela Merkel trying to bait Trump into isolating the United States before a key vote at the United Nations, or China trying to bait Trump into giving them an excuse to assert their claim over Taiwan.

We have all known, abstractly, that this is a possibility. That Trump is easily baited has been on display since he began running for president. That America’s enemies would construct detailed psychological profiles of him and launch sophisticated plans to take advantage of his weaknesses is obvious. But the expectation was that he would have staff around him — his National Security Advisor, his chief of staff — who would explain that the latest provocation is a trap, and who would remind Trump of the importance of avoiding it.

But that’s why the Machado affair has been so enlightening. In this case, Hillary Clinton’s campaign explained that they were setting a trap. The media explained that Clinton’s campaign was setting a trap. And all of Trump’s staff and advisors undoubtedly explained that Trump’s enemies were setting a trap.

Trump didn’t listen, or perhaps he didn’t care.

Republican mentality: if you're rich and you pay no taxes, you're a genius. If you're poor and you pay no taxes, you're a moocher.

— Dante Atkins (@DanteAtkins) October 2, 2016

“The former leader of Ukip, Nigel Farage, has flown to the US to coach the Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, for his next debate with Hillary Clinton,” The Guardian reports.

“Bringing in Farage suggests he is keen to sharpen his debating skills. Politics aside, Farage is considered a skilled orator and debater… However, Farage is unlikely to steer Trump away from making outlandish and controversial remarks, to which Farage is no stranger.”

“Fueled by tightening polls and an attention-grabbing TV ad in which he assembles an AR-15 rifle blindfolded, Missouri Democratic Senate candidate Jason Kander is newly confident he can unseat incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The suddenly close race has both Democratic and Republican groups outside the state pouring money into this onetime GOP stronghold as it becomes an increasingly competitive battleground in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate.”

Missouri is a sleeper. Polls show Democrats with a 10 point lead in the Governor’s race too. Do not be too surprised if he goes blue this year completely.

Josh Marshall thinks there is more, much more on the horizon with Donald and his taxes (or lack thereof).

After thinking over the Times revelation, I wonder whether there’s a much, much bigger story here that the Times didn’t put together or more likely did see but couldn’t prove. In any case, here’s what I’m thinking.

We’ve known for years that the collapse of Trump’s debt ridden casino empire in Atlantic City almost destroyed him more than two decades ago. He was able to wriggle through by a number of angles and connivances. But one of the biggest was that he was able to convince his lenders that they’d be even worse off if he was cleaned out and removed from the picture entirely. Convincing them that he was in essence too big or too important to fail, they took major ‘haircuts’ (losses) that allowed him to survive. He got others to absorb the impact of the losses, repackaged other parts and put them through bankruptcy, etc.

The key question is how much of the Atlantic City losses did Trump absorb in real terms? How much of those losses were forgiven or written off formally? And perhaps most importantly, how much of those losses were squirreled away or ‘parked’ in places which effectively put them in a sort of limbo or suspended animation – neither truly absorbed nor forgiven?

Here’s where the Times revelation comes into play.

If you sustain real capital losses, you can apply those losses to cancel out future income/profits and reduce your tax liability. But if your losses are canceled out by debt forgiveness, the debt forgiveness is counted as income. That cancels out the losses that would provide you with the tax benefit. In other words, you can’t have your cake and eat it too.

At the end of this campaign, more likely than not, Donald Trump will be arrested for tax evasion on hundreds of millions of dollars of income. And then he will be locked up.

“Republican leaders and strategists are unnerved by Donald Trump’s erratic attacks on a Latina beauty queen and other outbursts this week, increasingly fearful that the GOP nominee is damaging his White House hopes and doing lasting harm to the party in the campaign’s final stretch,” the Washington Post reports.

“Party officials said they are newly embarrassed by Trump’s impulsive behavior and exasperated by his inability to concentrate on his change message and frame the race as a referendum on Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to interviews with more than two dozen of them.”

“Americans see Hillary Clinton as the winner of the first presidential debate by a near-record margin in ABC News/Washington Post post-debate polls, with nearly half saying Donald Trump got his facts wrong and one in three saying he outright lied. His unpopularity grew slightly.”

“While views of both candidates remain broadly negative, 64 percent of Americans now express an unfavorable opinion of Trump overall, up 5 points from its pre-debate level. Fifty-three percent see Clinton unfavorably, not a significant change.”

Former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling says that he’s “serious” about mounting a 2018 challenge to unseat Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Politico reports. Said Schilling: “Oh, I’m serious about it. If I’m not electable, then I won’t get elected but I believe being a senator, being a governor, being in public office is about being a leader.” He also derided Hillary Clinton: “I don’t understand how Hillary’s an option, much less the candidate. I don’t understand how she’s not in jail.”

“The Republican Party of Kentucky has asked a state House candidate to drop out of the race after he posted several photos on Facebook depicting President Obama and the first lady as monkeys,” ABC News reports.

“Republican Party of Kentucky chairman Mac Brown and House Republican Floor Leader Jeff Hoover both signed the letter. It says while Dan Johnson has a First Amendment right to free speech, elected leaders ‘must hold ourselves and those with whom we serve to a higher standard.’”

“The posts on Dan Johnson’s Facebook page include a picture of a chimpanzee with the caption ‘Obama’s baby picture’ and a photo that had been altered to give Obama and his wife, Michelle, ape-like features. Johnson’s page also displayed a photo of a young Ronald Reagan feeding a monkey with a bottle with the caption: ‘Rare photos of Ronald Reagan babysitting Barack Obama in early 1962.’ His page also included a post calling Islam a ‘criminal syndicate.’”

Ruth Bader Ginsburg has some advice for everyone

Another often-asked question when I speak in public: “Do you have some good advice you might share with us?” Yes, I do. It comes from my savvy mother-in-law, advice she gave me on my wedding day. “In every good marriage,” she counseled, “it helps sometimes to be a little deaf.” I have followed that advice assiduously, and not only at home through 56 years of a marital partnership nonpareil. I have employed it as well in every workplace, including the Supreme Court. When a thoughtless or unkind word is spoken, best tune out. Reacting in anger or annoyance will not advance one’s ability to persuade.