Open Thread for Monday, September 19, 2016

Filed in National by on September 19, 2016

PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–Morning Consult–Clinton 46, Trump 42
FLORIDA–NYT/Upshot/Siena–Clinton 41, Trump 40

Jeb Bush stole the show at the Emmy’s. Yes, you read that sentence correctly.

ABC News on whether debates affect the race: “It will be tough: A review of data since 1960 suggests that past debates have almost never directly and measurably changed the candidates’ relative standings. That’s admittedly a high standard, though, and at least some debates may have had more subtle impacts.”

“Debates have been held in 11 presidential races since 1960. We find just one after which the lead in presidential preference changed hands by a significant margin: In 1980, when Ronald Reagan uttered his “are you better off?” line. He gained 7 points in a post-debate poll.”

I think there have been other instances. Off the top of my head: 1992 with the Bush looking at his watch, and Clinton’s answer to a voter on the debt and the economy, and Clinton’s rebuke of Bush on his character attacks, all solidified Clinton’s lead. In 2012, I think President Obama’s bad performance in the first debate prevented the race from being a massive landslide. But none of those incidents were as dramatic as the Reagan 1980 example.

John Avlon on whether terror attacks can help Trump: “Though he’s a uniquely unqualified candidate, I’ve been concerned about an outside X-Factor event suddenly changing the emotional calculus of the electorate in ways that we would later regret. This could be a sudden economic collapse or a cyber October-surprise. But terrorism has always seemed the prime known-unknown.”

“After all, terrorism is now a depressingly regular feature of American life. While no attacks have rivaled 9/11, we saw at least 45 thwarted terror plots in the first ten years after the destruction of the World Trade Center and in the last year alone suffered horrific losses in the San Bernardino and Orlando slaughters. But we have no template for the impact of an attack just before an American election.”

If all he has to offer is fear and overreaction, then no, it will not help him. I actually have been pleasantly surprised at how nonplussed the public has been over the weekend’s bombings. Not that they are minimizing the bombing and the knifing attacks, but that the public maybe putting it into perspective while at the same time wanting competent government investigation. Perspective and competence are not things you associate with Trump.

Why do we have a mug shot? Is he a citizen? Prior criminal record? TPM:

The [FBI Wanted] poster indicates that Rahami was born in Afghanistan, but is a naturalized U.S. citizen who currently lives New Jersey.

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus told CBS News “that it’s high time for Donald Trump’s former primary challengers to come on board and support his campaign—and suggested there could be trouble for them in 2020 or 2024 if they don’t.”

Said Priebus: “Those people need to get on board. And if they’re thinking they’re going to run again someday, I think that we’re going to evaluate the process – of the nomination process and I don’t think it’s going to be that easy for them.”

That brought a brilliant and strong rebuke from Governor Kasich:

On Sunday night, Kasich essentially made his feud with Priebus public when his top-advisor John Weaver released a statement saying, “The idea of a greater purpose beyond oneself may be alien to political party bosses like Reince Priebus, but it is at the center of everything Governor Kasich does.”

Weaver went on to imply that Trump will be unable to win the White House, saying that Kasich has “an inclusive, conservative vision that can actually win a national election.” He warned of a “potential national wipeout … occurring on Reince’s watch.”

For there to be such open hostility between the head of the RNC and the Republican governor of a vital swing state during a late-stage closely-contested political campaign is pretty much unprecedented.

In his own Sunday show appearance, Kasich made his opinions on a Trump presidency very clear. He told Meet the Press that he can’t bring himself to vote for Clinton, but when asked if he’ll vote for Trump, Kasich responded: “It’s very, very likely I will not.”

Meh, they skipped the best line in this Kasich press release: “He will not be bullied by a Kenosha political operative who refuses to stand up for our core principles.” That’s a reference to Reince’s origins in Wisconsin.

Hillary Clinton’s full statement in response to the incidents in New York, New Jersey and Minnesota:

I strongly condemn the apparent terrorist attacks in Minnesota, New Jersey, and New York. I pray for all of those who were wounded, and for their families. Once again, we saw the bravery of our first responders who run toward danger to help others. Their quick actions saved lives. Law enforcement officials are working to identify who was behind the attacks in New York and New Jersey and we should give them the support they need to finish the job and bring those responsible to justice – we will not rest until that happens. ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack in Minnesota, and this should steel our resolve to protect our country and defeat ISIS and other terrorist groups. I have laid out a comprehensive plan to do that. This includes launching an intelligence surge to help identify and thwart attacks before they can be carried out, and to spot lone wolf attackers. We also need to work with Silicon Valley to counter propaganda and recruitment efforts online. Americans have faced threats before, and our resilience in the face of them only makes us stronger. I am confident we will once again choose resolve over fear.

Emphasis mine. Paint Trump and his Republicans as cowards cowering in fear.

“Those in Donald Trump’s orbit appear to be nervous about the swirling scandal around the Trump Foundation—and they should be: the stakes are incredibly high,” the Daily Beast reports.

“The allegations of a quid pro quo between Trump and Florida Attorney General, improper use of the charity for personal benefit, and employment of the charity for political purposes have serious penalties beyond mere campaign optics—the possible consequences range from hefty fines to jail time.”

NYT reporter Michael Wines has unearthed a host of videos and quotes by Republican officials bragging about and acknowledging their efforts to suppress voting and voting rights of groups who tend to vote Democratic. Among those quoted, Todd Allbaugh, 46, a staff aide to a Wisconsin Republican state legislator, explains why he quit his job and party: “I was in the closed Senate Republican Caucus when the final round of multiple Voter ID bills were being discussed. A handful of the GOP Senators were giddy about the ramifications and literally singled out the prospects of suppressing minority and college voters. Think about that for a minute. Elected officials planning and happy to help deny a fellow American’s constitutional right to vote in order to increase their own chances to hang onto power.”

Brian Beutler on the Birther Fauxade last Friday:

The Trump campaign is making a bet that it can barrel through the debates without offering an honest accounting of birtherism. That he and his surrogates can gaslight media elites and passive news consumers about Trump’s role in coopting the birther movement, and turning it into an intimidating source of right-wing grassroots politics.

As grotesque as their effort is, and as nakedly as it reveals the Trump campaign’s disdain for media and the news-consuming public, it is not an entirely new strategic innovation. Don’t-believe-your-lying-eyes revisionism has a lengthy pedigree, and a mixed record, in conservative propaganda. And though it is unlikely to prevail in this instance, we’ve never seen it put to use at such a high level of Republican Party politics. The emergence of birther-truthers within the GOP leadership is the most fitting testament to the way Trump and the Republican Party are now one and the same.

There may be no better test of loyalty to Trump, or capacity for independent thought, than whether you’ve done a complete about face from pro-birther or birther tolerant to birther-truther in the past 72 hours.

Pro-Trump Pravda sites like Breitbart, which have fomented birther conspiracies for years, weren’t upset that Trump disclaimed birtherism; they celebrated Trump’s successful attempt to troll the media and his incipient effort to muddy the waters about where this racist conspiracy theory took root.

On Sunday, Trump’s most high-profile supporters fanned out across the Sunday TV news shows to claim, as his campaign manager Kellyanne Conway did, that the Clinton campaign incubated birtherism, and, as his adviser Chris Christie did that Trump “wasn’t … talking about [birtherism] on a regular basis.”

These are both lies, and easily disproven lies. But the purpose of the lies isn’t to win an argument, by convincing the masses that the lies are true. It’s to sow enough doubt about the real history of birtherism that voters who might be swayed by the truth—Democrats who aren’t fully aware of Trump’s racism, Republicans who worry that he’s too racist for their comfort, independents who hold Trump and Clinton equally suspect—throw up their hands and decide the issue is a wash.

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  1. mouse says:
    September 19, 2016 at 9:42 am

    The true cost of fossil fuels

    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/19/Alabama-oil-spill-creates-fuel-shortage-price-spike-in-southeast/4651474262165/

  2. anonymous says:
    September 19, 2016 at 9:55 am

    Lots of relevance to Delaware in this piece by Jon Weiner of The Nation about why deep-blue California is so centrist:

    https://www.thenation.com/article/california-is-one-of-the-bluest-states-in-the-union-so-why-are-its-legislators-so-centrist/

  3. anonymous says:
    September 19, 2016 at 11:04 am

    Someone yesterday said that if Clinton loses there will be plenty of blame to go around. Someone at HuffPo has ranked the suspects:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-hillary-clinton-lost_us_57dc4bece4b04a1497b491b6?section=&

  4. Jason330 says:
    September 19, 2016 at 11:09 am

    Thanks for the link. We (Democrats) are great at pointing fingers.

    With so many bad guys to point at, I nearly forgot to point at this culprit:

    “…the simple fact that middle-of-the-road Clintonism ran out of gas as a public philosophy.”

  5. Bob J. says:
    September 19, 2016 at 11:25 am

    where are you getting your polling data? RCP average for Florida is 46/45 trump

    NYT/upshot/siena national is saying 46/44 clinton. RCP national average is 44.9/44.0 clinton.

    Taking out the LA times poll that shows Trump ahead by a lot the average is still 45.5/43.3 clinton.
    The NYT’s election poll is showing the morning consult poll wrong. On morning consults website, they are saying 42/40 clinton.

    This race is going to be a hell of a lot closer than 4 points.

  6. mouse says:
    September 19, 2016 at 11:37 am

    It’s difficult to believe that half the respondents in a national poll would support a know nothing bellicose reality show host.

  7. Jason330 says:
    September 19, 2016 at 11:46 am

    We elected Bush twice. The United States is capable of anything.

  8. Dave says:
    September 19, 2016 at 12:37 pm

    If Clinton loses, all eligible voters need to look in the mirror and ask themselves why and what they really expect from a chief executive and commander in chief and how that contrasts their vote. If our vote was influenced by Sanders, the media, Russia, or whatever, that’s on each of us who acted like sheep. If you are old enough to vote, you are old enough to be responsible for that vote.

  9. cassandra m says:
    September 19, 2016 at 1:09 pm

    A righteous political obituary for Chris Christie from the NJ Star Ledger.

    If you suspect, as I do, that a notorious control freak like Gov. Chris Christie must have known about the Bridgegate caper, and is lying like a snake when he denies it, then your moment has finally arrived.

    Three years after the scandal broke, we are about to hear a ton of evidence for the first time as the criminal trial gets underway, starting Monday.

    We will hear fresh testimony under oath from key players who have been silent until now. We will hear about grand jury testimony that has been locked in a vault.

    We’ll hear from Christina Renna, a Christie aide who texted that the governor “flat-out lied” when he claimed that senior staff didn’t know about the lane closures. And we’ll finally hear from David Wildstein, who has pleaded guilty in the conspiracy and says that “evidence exists” showing the governor knew all about it.

    This is a new ballgame. In the political sphere, where this scandal has lived for three years, there is no punishment for hiding information or lying about it.

    But this is a criminal trial in federal court. Play those games, and you could land in jail.

    You can read this Editor’s glee here. It’s a fun read, but the GOP gets to survive their scandals in a way that Dems rarely do.

  10. Jason330 says:
    September 19, 2016 at 1:15 pm

    He was in real consideration for the VP spot knowing this was going to go down. I mean, can you imagine the nerve of this guy thinking he could be President of the United States?

  11. anonymous says:
    September 19, 2016 at 2:13 pm

    “I mean, can you imagine the nerve of this guy thinking he could be President of the United States?”

    You can say that about all 16 people who tried to win the GOP nomination, except Fiorina, in which case you would have to imagine the nerve of that gal.

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