BHL win sets stage for SD10 special election(s)
Does anyone know DEGOP Special Election Specialist, Tom Kovach’s, whereabouts? Too soon?
El Som lays it out in a comment:
I am worried about what will happen in SD 10 once Bethany Hall-Long is elected Lt. Governor in November. Late fall/early winter special elections are not exactly D strong suits. Looks like Quin Johnson and Earl Jaques are in that district, so maybe it’ll be one of them. Which, of course, would necessitate a House Special Election should one of them win…
While I agree Dems have sucked in specials, I think Jaques is seasoned enough to not get caught with his pants down. The ensuing 27th RD special if Jaques moves up, who knows? The district seemed a bit of a toss-up until Jaques started consolidating votes as the incumbent. He got 65% against Republican nominee Jay Galloway in 2010 and was unopposed in 2012.
Quinn, Earl and Ken Boulden all live in the district. One has said that he doesn’t want to run.
Here’s a fun fact: The Governor gets to appoint a replacement for Trini Navarro (no special election). I suspect that the same would apply for Ken Boulden, if he ran and won. That would be half of the row offices occupied by appointees. Imagine if Ciro had won as well. Kozikowski would be holding down the fort.
The timing of the special is interesting. BHL doesn’t need to resign, so her seat wouldn’t be vacated until January. This would mean a Late February/Early March special for whoever the candidate is. Will they be door-knocking in a snowstorm? Could be fun!
It’s weird that a governor gets to appoint someone to fill a county row office instead of the County Exec. But such is Delaware. Weirdness abounds.
The reason why I’m concerned about the race is b/c John Marino got 49% of the vote against BHL last time. He starts with his supporters and he has run district-wide.
Which means that I think he is the favorite. Yes, I know that BHL’s number was depleted b/c of the sign-stealing incident. I ALSO know that turnout in these special elections is abysmal, and only one prospective candidate has run district-wide and has amassed a list of voters supporting him. I think we’re screwed.
You think John Marino is going to run against Jaques for the Senate seat rather than hold off and run for the open house seat?
LG, the idea of the timing of a special election is interesting. She may not HAVE to resign her seat until January. But she CAN. I think it’s marginally better if the election is held during the six-week JFC break (end of January to mid-March), but she/the Party may not. So, we could have current Gov. Markell setting up a special election before year’s end, or John Carney setting it up for the JFC window.
You can bet that the Rethugs will cry crocodile tears about the 10th SD having no representation during January. It will be bullshit, but it may be politically effective.
Bottom line: I STILL think we’re screwed.
Jason330. Yes. After all, if he loses the Senate race, he can still turn around and run for the House seat. IF he’s in Jaques’ district, which I don’t know that he is.
Is there a bigger Republican in the House Democratic Caucus than Quinn Johnson?
Man o man, are these the best choices available??
Yeah, but BHL wasn’t any shining progressive either. Johnson and Jaques pretty much mirror where their constituents are, though. It’s SW NCC, right along the Maryland border, half of the district below the Canal. Glasgow, Middletown, Odessa.
Think western Kent County, only slightly north.
John Marino does not live in Earl Jaques’ 27th RD. He lives in Quinn Johnson’s 8th
It is true the Democrats have underperformed and lost in many special elections, but when they are well organized they have won. Bryon Short won a special election in a then Republican-leaning district a decade ago, and David Bentz won the last one just a year ago.
Marino is in Quinn Johnson’s district.
All Row Offices, including Treasurer and Insurance Commissioner, should be appointed.
@Deldem- The only reasons why an Insurance Commissioner should be appointed are because voters don’t understand the importance of the office and because an appointed IC would do the bidding of the governor.
The second reason is why the office needs to remain independent. The IC needs to be an independent watchdog for the consumer. That means that the IC should not be in lock step with the governor. The IC is also a voting member of the State Employees Benefit Committee. That means fighting for healthcare coverage for state employees and not burdening the employees with increased co-pays and reduced coverage even if that is the position of the governor. That may not be what has happened here, but it has been the case in other states with elected commissioners and a Republican governor and Democrat Insurance Commissioner-like California.
Yeah, but one reason why Bryon Short won is b/c even Wayne Smith’s people weren’t thrilled that Smith abandoned the seat, which is what BHL has done. Bentz won in a D stronghold district.
BHL got 51.1% against Marino last time. In a general. Gonna be tough for a D, any D, in a special.
“That means fighting for healthcare coverage for state employees and not burdening the employees with increased co-pays and reduced coverage even if that is the position of the governor.”
Yeah, see, your problem there is that everyone in the private sector pays higher — usually much higher — co-pays than state workers do. That’s why there is essentially zero support for this position outside state-employee circles.
Don’t get me wrong, the pay is too low. But so are the co-pays.
“The only reasons why an Insurance Commissioner should be appointed are because voters don’t understand the importance of the office ”
Nor do they understand anything about the office. Because people are basing their votes on nothing beyond campaign bullshit, their “freedom” to vote is the freedom of ignorance. Do you feel the same way about electing your police chief? Conservatives do.
“Yeah, but one reason why Bryon Short won is b/c even Wayne Smith’s people weren’t thrilled that Smith abandoned the seat, which is what BHL has done.”
Uhhhh… Wayne Smith resigned suddenly to go lobby for the hospitals. BHL ran for statewide office. That’s hardly comparable or even close to “abandoning” the seat. did you feel like Joe Biden abandoned Delaware to become Vice President? C’mon…
I wonder if Marino will even run. He’s something like a three time loser now, isn’t he? Also, he’d have to re-tool his campaign since he won’t be going after Hall-Long any more. Plus, the religious groups that turned out for Marino because Hall-Long voted for marriage equality will probably shift back to normal voting patterns. I know that Jaques has stayed in their good graces.
Turnout will also be abysmally low no matter who the candidates are. The better GOTV strategy will be the key.
When you factor in inflation, state employees are making less now than before this administration was elected. When you factor in co pays, it’s a lot less. State employee positions that require a university education, which now cost 60-100K, typically have starting salaries around 30K that never go up. How much more would you have state employees pay? And you also expect competent motivated people to be in critical positions??? .
“Turnout will also be abysmally low no matter who the candidates are. The better GOTV strategy will be the key.”
BHL has always been great at that. If she can cede her operation to someone, they are the prohibitive favorite.
@mouse: As I said, the salaries are too low, and Jack Markell is a failed Democrat for failing to understand that raises for state employees would have helped the state economy.
However, those state employees making $30K are actually getting benefits worth more than that. In the private sector employees pick up half or more of the cost of insurance, which amounts to at least $1k a month. Because health care costs go up faster than inflation, we the taxpayers are stuck with ever-rising “pay” (actually benefits) to state employees even when they get no “raises” in their earnings.
Cushy benefits packages are like pension increases — a way of balancing the books while leaving future governments and taxpayers to foot the bill.
“And you also expect competent motivated people to be in critical positions???”
Delaware rarely has competent, motivated people in critical positions no matter what the pay.
Marino came close in a Republican wave year with very high R turnout when BHL was beset by the sign “scandal.” Don’t be so sure it’s a baseline.
Som’s weird hate-fetish aside, Short won in 07 because he organized well and the community liked him. BHL has a powerful and committed infrastructure in MOT and that means something.
One can’t eat or pay pay bills with benefits.
JTF, the analogies are only slightly flawed. The voters see it differently than perhaps most of the people on this blog. When Diana McWilliams resigned to move to New Mexico, we lost that seat despite having both a good candidate, a hard-working campaign, and a registration edge. If both D’s and R’s had turned out at the same proportion, we would have won. But it wasn’t real close.
I see the same thing happening here.
LG, you know the dynamics much better than I. I just know how hard it was to get D’s out in the 6th Special Election. Keep in mind, there’s gonna be election fatigue not just on the part of the voters, but with the campaign workers as well.
I just checked out the composition of the 10th. The registration numbers are OK, not great, 15,425 D’s and 9,759 R’s, with 8848 I’s. In some portions of the district, though, the D’s are Trump D’s. Wouldn’t be totally shocked if Trump carried the 10th SD. Plus, over 4,000 of those D’s are in Kowalko’s district (25th). Jaques and Kowalko are, um, not close, to put it mildly. There are 3 ED’s in Hensley’s district.
Yo, Chuck, Short ran a great campaign back then. I worked hard on it. Everybody did. We were the energized side competing in a district that we had never won. But it was still a close race and the dynamics of Smith abandoning the district softened R turnout. It just did. But thanks for the BS hate fetish meme.
Diana McWilliams was somewhat of a special case. She resigned the day after getting re-elected. The special election was less than a week before Christmas. BHL certainly isn’t abandoning her seat, If you look at the numbers, her districts voted overwhelmingly to give her a promotion.
I hear ya, LG. I also know how it feels to try to recreate momentum when you’ve spent your last bullet. We’ll just have to see, hope you’re right.
BTW, I assume that Hensley doesn’t reside in the senate district?
Pretty sure Hensley is in the 14th. Ennis’
I just had a legislator call me to tell me that BHL can actually serve as State Senator during the first week that the General Assembly is back in session since her term is not up this November.
The Governor and LG are sworn in on the third Tuesday of January, and the General Assembly will be in session for that second week of January.
Plus, if she were to resign her seat right after the election, she wouldn’t be paid from then until she assumed the office.
So, LG is right. Look for the special some time in March.
Earl Jacques is a BAD choice for this…He will Lose!!!!!!!!
Very insightful.
Who else lives down in that are that is a solid bet? LG, I’m looking to you for that one. I’m just not very familiar with the players there that are not already in motion. I am, of course, excluding Bill Bell from any other office.
Well, he mentioned Clerk of the Peace Ken Boulden. We all know he’s a very likeable guy.
I think at some point the choice will be Boulden or Jaques. Perhaps one of them will bow out. I guess it’s possible that neither of them decide to take the plunge for whatever reason. Then all bets are off.
I expect that either we will hear something in the next 2 weeks (unlikely) or after the November election. Until then, there will be lots of hushed voices and anyone that knows will clam up (myself included).
What about Erik Raser-Schramm? He’s in-district, super progressive, beautiful family, and described on another thread as the “best political operative in the state.” He’d attack a ton of money, establishment support and super volunteers…and is maybe the only person in Delaware who could build a robust GOTV operation from nothing in six weeks.
Not sure they’re still in the district. Might be in Ennis’ district now. Other than that, I’d be down there knocking doors.
LG: Ve vill MAKE you talk!
I thought Erik was south of Middletown in Ennis’ district. BHL’s district ends just south of Middletown’s Main St.
MarcoPolo’s got a really interesting idea.
#raserschramm2017
Thanks for the vote of confidence; however, El Som is right, Senator Ennis is our Senator.
Just checked. Erik is 10 miles south of Bethany’s district. I agree that he would be great.
Someone has been a DL lurker to be on that so quickly.
Or someone called him.
Thanks for the shout out, Jason. Since Wednesday, I’ve been looking at apartments in the Middletown area… Why do you ask? 🙂
Waitaminit! Don’t you have to live there for six consecutive years to run???
Oops, forgot. Elaine Manlove says ‘No’.
El Som, you just have to move to Utah first, then you can run pretty much anywhere.
Erik, living outside the district has never been a disqualification for a Senate seat (see McDowell). Also, you have a hyphenated name. So, enough of the excuses. Milk the goats, feed the chickens, put the baby to bed and let’s start-up the predictive dialer!
See McBride, too. If Erik’s going to get away with this, he’ll have to change his name to McRaser-McSchramm.