Saturday Open Thread [8.6.16]

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–IBD/TIPP–Clinton 46, Trump 39

Hillary Clinton: tested, steady, fearless. Donald Trump panicked, afraid & chaos. Compare Secret Service videos. pic.twitter.com/np0yyZZz9X

— RiotWomenn (@RiotWomennn) August 5, 2016

The New York Times notes Donald Trump made his pitch for a “big tent” Republican party at a rally:

“I need a Republican Senate and a House to accomplish all of the change we have to make,” Mr. Trump said. He added, “I understand and embrace the wisdom of Ronald Reagan’s big tent within the party.” “Big, big tent,” he said. “Remember?” He paused to ask the Democrats in the crowd to raise their hands. Hardly anyone made a sound. Mr. Trump, looking unimpressed, offered that he did not need Democrats anyway.

The type of voter that could be described as a Reagan Democrat, a blue color northeaster or midwestern racist, or a conservative white southern racist, has either been a Republican for over 35 years now, or they are dead. Donald Trump thinks he will get a sizable chunk (over 20% or more) to vote for him. He is wrong. He wanted there to be Democrats in that crowd. And that will be the first of many disappointments to come.

Vox reminds us that the loser of the Opening Ceremonies is the American viewer.

Around the world, most countries view the opening ceremony as it happens. And since Rio is but one hour ahead of the America’s East Coast, the US is uniquely well-suited to watch these games in primetime.

But NBC still delayed broadcast of the ceremony by an hour, even in the Eastern time zone. (Those who watched on the West Coast had to wait four hours, without any way to watch it live unless they had access to an East Coast NBC feed.)

And as if to add insult to injury, US viewers also had to put up with the inane chatter of Today hosts Matt Lauer, Hoda Kotb, and Meredith Vieira. At various points, they said Luxembourg was in “central Europe,” joked about how Djibouti kinda sounds like “yer booty,” and seemed surprised to learn that the US (or Estados Unidos) would be alphabetized under E for the Parade of Nations.

Said parade always takes forever, but these hosts only make it worse, even as NBC carefully edits back the time spent on various nations’ delegations, so that it can fairly sprint through letters like L and G, then spend more time on the US and various other countries NBC thinks US viewers might be interested in. (Yes: France; Australia; and, amusingly, the Federated States of Micronesia, which entered right before the US. No: essentially any nation in Africa.)

NBC’s problems with broadcasting the Olympics extend back to 1988, when NBC won the rights to the Summer Games from ABC and its longtime stalwart master of ceremonies Jim McKay and steadily turned the Olympics from a sporting event and/or a gathering of the world’s nations into an episode of Dateline. NBC’s entertainment-first approach to the Olympics has always been deeply irritating, but it’s never worse than during the opening ceremony, when you’re reminded just how bad its broadcasting team truly is.

Nate Silver:

There’s no longer any doubt that the party conventions have shifted the presidential election substantially toward Hillary Clinton. She received a larger bounce from her convention than Donald Trump got from his, but Trump has continued to poll so poorly in state and national surveys over the past two days that his problems may be getting worse…

A model can be too stubborn to update its forecast. Clinton, after blowing a 7-point lead in July, is now in the midst of one of the bigger convention bounces in recent years. This election has produced large swings by historical standards, and the odds ought to have shifted back and forth, in the same way they would if an NFL team forfeited a two-touchdown lead before halftime and then regained it in the third quarter. But you shouldn’t rush to judgment based on two days of polling (admittedly excellent though they were for Clinton) when there are still about 94 days to go. A poll showing Clinton with a 9-point lead three weeks from now would be more meaningful than three more such polls taken tomorrow.

So interesting to see cable nets and print reporters using emails to try to create equivalence/"balance" between Trump and Clinton

— Norman Ornstein (@NormOrnstein) August 5, 2016

Nate Cohn:

It’s a little hard to make sense of it all, in part because the timing is a little unusual. This ought to be the heart of Mrs. Clinton’s post-convention bounce, when polling analysts generally preach caution. On the other hand, Mr. Trump had a tough week of his own making — drawing condemnation from Republican leaders and even causing a few high-profile defections from donors and the conservative media.

The prudent approach is to wait, and see whether Mrs. Clinton’s lead endures for another week or two — after convention bounces usually fade. In the interim, we can cautiously say that there is more reason than usual to think that Mrs. Clinton’s newfound lead represents a meaningful shift in the race, one that would make a comeback for Mr. Trump seem daunting if it holds.

In general, it’s not worth overthinking post-convention bounces. They don’t necessarily even reflect real shifts in voter attitudes, just changes in how likely people are to respond to surveys. But strong conventions can speed up unification of divided parties and usher in a real shift.

Aug 5, 2004: Kerry +1.5
Aug 5, 2008: Obama +2.8
Aug 5, 2012: Obama +2.8
Aug 5, 2016: Clinton +6.7
(RCP) pic.twitter.com/0L2eZ7Tl4X

— Gabriel Debenedetti (@gdebenedetti) August 5, 2016

Michael Lind of Politico:

This year, we’re seeing the end of a partisan realignment, and the beginning of a policy one — and U.S. politics is about to change big-time.

“Donald Trump is Todd Akin. He is Richard Mourdock and Sharron Angle. But that is really not fair to Akin, Mourdock and Angle. They weren’t nuts. They had political views and others that made them unelectable. With Donald Trump, it is instability. He is an absurd candidate for president. He is a neutron bomb that has gone off in the Republican Party that is destroying anyone near him.”

— GOP strategist Stuart Stevens, quoted by the Huffington Post.

The Upshot: “Three national surveys — from Fox, NBC/WSJ and Marist/McClatchy — showed Mrs. Clinton ahead by big margins: 10, 9 and 15 percentage points. It’s the worst polling stretch for a presidential candidate at this stage since John McCain in mid-October of 2008.”

Peggy Noonan: “From what I’ve seen there has been zero reflection on the part of Republican leaders on how much the base’s views differ from theirs and what to do about it. The GOP is not at all refiguring its stands. The only signs of life I see are among young staffers on Capitol Hill, who understand their bosses’ stands have been rebuked and are quietly debating among themselves what policy paths will win the future.”

“Beyond that, anti-Trump Republicans treat his voters like immoral enablers of a malignant boob. Should Mr. Trump lose decisively in November they’ll lord it over everyone, say ‘I told you so,’ and accept what they imagine will be forelock-tugging apologies. Then they will get to work burying not only Mr. Trump but his issues.”

“That’s where the future of the GOP will be fought, and found: on whether Trumpism can be defeated along with Mr. Trump.”

The new McClatchy/Marist poll shows that among voters under 30, Hillary Clinton leads with 41%, followed by Gary Johnson at 23%, Jill Stein at 16% and Donald Trump at 9%. Donald Trump. Fourth Place loser. And the kids are alright.

When Speaker Paul Ryan was asked by Charlie Sykes whether there’s anything that would cause him to rescind his endorsement of Donald Trump. he said, “Of course.” But he wouldn’t say what that is. Said Ryan: “Where that line gets crossed, I don’t know where that is.”

So everything that has come before is endorsed by Ryan, the leader of the GOP. Which means all Republicans are just fine with banning Muslims, being racist towards Latinos and Blacks, dishonoring Gold Star families, and using nuclear weapons.