Tuesday Open Thread [7.12.16]

I’m back from my vacation, ready to do battle against the forces of evil, namely racist bigoted Trumpian Republicans. Much thanks to Cassandra and everyone here at DL for maintaining these Open Threads while I was gone. Now let’s get to it.

NEVADA–PRESIDENT–Monmouth—Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 5
NEVADA–U.S. SENATE–Monmouth—Heck 42, Cortez Masto 40
CALIFORNIA–U.S. SENATE–Field—Harris 39, Sanchez 24
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–Pew Research—Clinton 51, Trump 42
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–Reuters/Ipsos—Clinton 44, Trump 33
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–Economist/YouGov—Clinton 47, Trump 42

A new Purple Slice poll finds that Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump among white voters with at least a college degree by double-digits, 48% to 37%. In 2012, Mitt Romney won that group by 14 percentage points, according to exit polls.

“The findings suggest Trump is struggling to even rebuild the losing coalition Romney assembled, although other polls show the presumptive 2016 Republican nominee doing better among white voters without college degrees than Romney did. Since 1952, no Democratic presidential candidate has won college-educated whites.”

Reuters/Ipsos: “Donald Trump has a man problem. No, not what you think — this is not about sexist remarks or boorish behavior. Donald Trump, whose candidacy is conventionally thought to rest on the support of working class white men, is not attracting nearly as much enthusiasm from them as Mitt Romney did four years ago. Given his poll deficit to Hillary Clinton, if Trump cannot fire up his base of support, Republicans are headed for big losses in November.”

Dr. Williams: "I support you, I will defend you, I will care for you. That doesn't mean that I do not fear you." https://t.co/EPj5XP3tTk

— CNN (@CNN) July 11, 2016

In case any thinks Clinton-Biden is in the works, Vice President Joe Biden shot down that down, according to Politico. Said Biden: “That’s not my preferred route. I have great respect for Hillary. I’m going to work like the devil for her, but I’m not looking to be vice president again, and no one has talked to me.”

Contra Trump's claim today, violent crime has plummeted from the highs of the '80s and '90s https://t.co/ULTRLNIu4f pic.twitter.com/s88PGe0ixv

— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) July 11, 2016

Donald Trump is considering picking Newt Gingrich for a top national security post should he be elected president, Bloomberg reports. “A national-security role in a potential Trump administration could be a good fit for Gingrich. He holds a doctorate in European history and is known for his intellectual curiosity. In Congress, he immersed himself in military affairs and intelligence issues, and in 2001 he was named by then-President George W. Bush to serve as a member of the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board. Like Trump, Gingrich is a staunch critic of the the U.S. nuclear deal with Iran.”

So that means Gingrich is out as VP.

Washington Post: “Hovering around the process is Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), another early Trump backer who is a central force in the campaign and is said to be ready to serve as Trump’s running mate if asked.”

Damn, don’t be so desperate Jeffy. Beggers don’t get the job, so it is likely that Sessions is out. Picking Retired General Mike Flynn, a registered pro-choice Democrat, would shatter what remains of party unity in the GOP. So Trunp’s vice presidential short list appears to be, and reportedly, according to Bloomberg, is down to Gov. Chris Christie and Gov. Mike Pence. My guess is Pence. My guess for Clinton has changed too. See below.

Democrats advance most progressive platform in party history https://t.co/cUh4shj8sr

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) July 10, 2016

I remember saying this some weeks ago and being laughed at by the Sanderistas here. Now that Bernie agrees with me that the Democratic Party has the most progressive platform ever, who is laughing now? Hell, even Jeff Weaver is on board.

Here is more on just how liberal and progressive the Democratic platform is, and that we do have Bernie to thank for it. His campaign, in the end, did exactly what I wanted it to do: keep Hillary on the left by giving her the incentive to stay there. Without Sanders or any serious challenge from progressive quarters, I am not sure Hillary would have moved dramatically to the center or right because American politics doesn’t work like that anymore. There are no moderates to win over in that middle ground. Everyone is polarized and turning out your own base is the way to win. But the Sanders challenge helped Hillary shed the last vestiges of 90’s caution and to be vocal about her progressive positions.

Rick Klein: “This summer of discontent has added some new elements to the anger and angst that have dominated the election year. This is now a fearful nation – afraid not just about changing economic and demographic forces, but of our collective security. It’s a particular kind of fear, too – as much about the nation’s emotional health as about its physical or even political well-being.”

“It won’t take long to see how this impacts the campaign. The next 17 days will include two vice-presidential selections and the entirety of both conventions. Such choices and such moments have been based on a particular vision for the year, with both campaigns seeing a nation defined by its divisions. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have been playing to the parties’ respective bases, albeit in unique ways. This just might be the moment that changes all that, where a confluence of unpredictable political forces demands a new style of leadership – and new sets of choices along the way. Americans love to say they are united in the wake of national tragedies. Might there be a way to vote that way, too?”

Baton Rouge PD looks ridiculous. I never wore so much armor in combat. This is their own community. (Photo: Reuters) pic.twitter.com/clCFFyD6jx

— Brandon Friedman (@BFriedmanDC) July 10, 2016

This photo will be in school history books.

Jeb Bush told NBC News that voters are going to “feel betrayed” by Donald Trump if he wins the election.

Said Bush: “Trump, you know, to his credit was very smart at exploiting these kind of opportunities. He’s a master at understanding how the media works – more than anybody I’ve seen in politics. Kudos to him for, you know, kind of creating the environment and then manipulating the environment to his effect. The tragedy of this though, is that there isn’t going to be a wall built. And Mexico’s not going to pay for it. And there’s not going to be a ban on Muslims. None of that is – this is all like an alternative universe that he created. The reality is, that’s not going to happen. And people are going to be deeply frustrated and the divides will grow in our country.”

He won’t get that chance, Jeb.

James Carville and Stan Greenberg just put out a new strategy memo which highlights the key issues that they think might help Democrats create a downballot Democratic wave that retakes the House and Senate. Admittedly a push poll that informs respondents of Republican positions on gun rights, abortion and gay marriage, Carville and Greenberg found that, in nine battleground states, one-third (33%) of those not voting for the Democratic Senate candidate said they would now vote for the Democrat, and that one-quarter (25%) of those voting for the Republican candidate for Senate said they would now vote for his or her Democratic opponent.

Carville and Greenberg:

That is a breathtaking number, and we now believe we are on to something – something that Republicans figured out when they used Obamacare in the off-year elections of 2010 and 2014. It motivated and unified their base, brought out the emotions and frustration associated with Obama’s hegemony; it was real and believable; and most important, it allowed them to say, “vote against the Democrats because of Obamacare, not because I want a political party to win.”

Linking Republican candidates to the GOP Congress, the GOP-controlled state legislature and their positions on social issues – starting with their opposition to abortion without exceptions and extending to gun control and gay marriage and discrimination against working women – combines all of the astounding things they are hearing from the GOP. That the Republican position on abortion has such a strong recall reflects what they are in fact doing and underscores the GOP’s fight against women’s and equal rights; talking about opposition to gun regulations enlists the emotions around the senseless, uncontrolled gun violence.

This information also immediately consolidated the potential Democratic vote down-ballot. It moved three-quarters of the Clinton voters who were not yet supporting the Democrat in the race for Senate; it shifted half of the Rising American Electorate not yet voting for the Democrat, including half of the millennials and unmarried women. It is clearly giving Democratically-inclined voters a reason to vote straight-ticket.

Rich Lowry on the downside of choosing Pence: “I understand the impulse for Trump to pick Pence — an experienced pol, in good standing with conservatives, and not much of a lightning rod, at least not yet (the Left tends to make any GOP pick a lightning rod). But Trump’s running mate will have to be extremely deft at explaining away and deflecting Trump controversies. There is no reason to believe that Pence will be good at this, and I’m guessing he won’t be. Christie (comfortable at defending anything) and especially Newt (one of the most glib politicians of the last 30 years) would be much better by this metric.”

“They both have downsides. No one will be excited by Christie, certainly not conservatives. Newt is famously ill-disciplined. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Trump team thinks it’s getting a safe choice in Pence and then when he inevitably has trouble defending Trump (he has never operated on this kind of national stage), it won’t look so safe anymore.”

The AP reports that Trump’s campaign still has some big ground game issues: “With early voting beginning in less than three months in some states, the review reveals that the national GOP has delivered only a fraction of the ground forces detailed in discussions with state leaders earlier in the year. And that is leaving anxious local officials waiting for reinforcements to keep pace with Democrat Hillary Clinton in the states that matter most in 2016.”

“Some examples of Republican shortfalls: Ohio Republicans thought they were going to see 220 paid staffers by May; in reality there are about 50. Plans for Pennsylvania called for 190 paid staffers; there are about 60. Iowa’s planned ground force of 66 by May actually numbers between 25 and 30. In Colorado, recent staff departures have left about two dozen employees, far short of the 80 that were to have been in place.”

James Hohmann on why Pence would want to be on the ticket with Trump: “The hard truth is that he’s not too popular in the Hoosier State, and he could very possibly lose reelection to a second term as governor of Indiana this November, which would end his political career. Joining Trump would let him get out of that pickle. His advisers tell National Review’s Eliana Johnson that they think even being on a losing ticket with Trump would position Pence as a top prospect in either 2020 or 2024.”

So I kept you waiting on who the new favorite to be Clinton’s VP is. Before, I wanted Clinton-Warren. And that ticket is still a real possibility, but much less so now that the DNC Platform has gone so well and that Bernie Sanders and the vast majority of his supporters are on board. And to be clear, I would still prefer to see a Clinton-Warren ticket, but like Al Giordano, I am sensing something:

Keep an eye trained on Tom Perez in the coming days & weeks. My spidey sense is tingling. https://t.co/NM4EztYWxu

— Al Giordano (@AlGiordano) July 11, 2016

From Politico:

She starts the phone calls with, “Tom, this is Hillary.”

“Hey, how are you?” he responds, consciously working his way around being so formal at this point in their relationship, but also too ingrained in his Dominican upbringing to just start calling her by her first name.

Hillary Clinton and Tom Perez have had some practice with the routine, according to sources familiar with the conversations. There was the phone call when she called to ask for his endorsement, which became a nerd-out session on prison reform and registering farmworkers. In March, when she asked for his help on Latino engagement ahead of the New York primary, he pushed for her to send him to a politically powerful local union president to ask for his help — and ended up being asked himself to rile up a bundler session the morning after the New York debate.

Then there was the call in April, when she called to congratulate him about the new conflict of interest rule his Labor Department had just released. Before long, she was grilling him: who on the Hill had helped? What sort of response was he getting?

Perez had only met Clinton in passing before last summer, when he happened to get scheduled ahead of her at the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO) conference in Las Vegas—just a typical day for a Labor secretary, he mock-complained to staff, with all those cameras arrayed to see him. She called over to him, introduced herself, thanked him for the work he was doing. They spent about 15 minutes together, complete with photos and teasing his former press secretary who’s now her director of black, Latino and women’s media.

But something clicked, between those encounters and the clutches he was pulled into before hitting the spin rooms at the debates he attended.

That’s how a low-profile Cabinet secretary who’s only ever been elected to the Montgomery, Md.,County Council ended up near the mix of Clinton’s running mate prospects. It’s largely a reflection of the relationship that he’s struck up over the past year with both the former secretary of state—who doesn’t make new friends easily—and former President Bill Clinton, and what they’ve seen him do.

Read the whole thing. Perez checks more boxes than Warren does. Perez is a progressive, Latino, labor-friendly and has a personal rapport with both Clintons.