Tuesday Open Thread [6.21.16]

Filed in National by on June 21, 2016

Donald Trump “enters the general election campaign laboring under the worst financial and organizational disadvantage of any major party nominee in recent history, placing both his candidacy and his party in political peril,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Trump began June with just $1.3 million in cash on hand, a figure more typical for a campaign for the House of Representatives than the White House. He trailed Hillary Clinton, who raised more than $28 million in May, by more than $41 million, according to reports filed late Monday night with the Federal Election Commission.”

“He has a staff of around 70 people — compared with nearly 700 for Mrs. Clinton — suggesting only the barest effort toward preparing to contest swing states this fall.”

The Washington Post: “Donald Trump’s campaign raised $3.1 million in May and ended last month with $1.3 million in the bank, a remarkably poor showing that will only heighten Republican concerns about his ability to run a serious general election campaign against presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump’s paltry fundraising last month is totally inexplicable given that he effectively secured the Republican presidential nomination on May 3 when he crushed Texas. Sen. Ted Cruz in the Indiana primary.”

The Huffington Post reports Trump’s presidential campaign paid more than $1 million last month to companies controlled by the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.

“A campaign to stop Donald Trump from becoming the Republican presidential nominee has the support of nearly 400 delegates to the GOP’s convention next month, according to organizers, quickly transforming what began as an idea tossed around on social media into a force that could derail a national campaign,” the Washington Post reports.

“While organizers concede their plan could worsen internal party strife, they believe they are responding to deep-rooted concerns among conservatives about Trump, who is suffering from declining poll numbers after weeks of missteps and embarrassing headlines.”



Gabriel Sherman
on how Corey Lewandowski was fired: “At around 9:30 Monday morning, Donald Trump and his adult children gathered for a regular strategy meeting at Trump Tower. Also present were senior staff, including Corey Lewandowski, the campaign’s embattled manager… According to two sources briefed on the events, the meeting was a setup. Shortly after it began, the children peppered Lewandowski with questions, asking him to explain the campaign’s lack of infrastructure.”

“Their father grew visibly upset as he heard the list of failures. Finally, he turned to Lewandowski and said, “What’s your plan here?”

“Lewandowski responded that he wanted to leak Trump’s vice-president pick. And with that, Lewandowski was out. Trump has long viewed announcing his running mate at the GOP convention next month as a valuable card to play. He was shocked that Lewandowski didn’t have any other ideas.”

“Shortly after the meeting, Lewandowski was escorted out of the building by Trump security.”

The Lid: “Even if Lewandowski’s ouster makes nervous Republicans feel a smidge better, the way it was handled probably gave them heartburn anyway.”

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) told the Washington Post be that Republicans are partially culpable for attacks like the Orlando nightclub shooting because they refuse to restrict gun sales to those on the terror watch list. Said Murphy: “We’ve got to make this clear, constant case that Republicans have decided to sell weapons to ISIS.”

He added: “ISIS has decided that the assault weapon is the new airplane, and Republicans, in refusing to close the terror gap, refusing to pass bans on assault weapons, are allowing these weapons to get in the hands of potential lone-wolf attackers. We’ve got to make this connection and make it in very stark terms.”

Mark Leibovich says Republicans sure don’t like talking about Trump:

To a comical extent, top Republicans willed themselves invisible when I reached out to them for this article, fearing, not incorrectly, that the conversation would turn to Trump. This included some of the most typically quotable Republicans, including former Trump challengers like Graham (“He’s sorta had his fill talking about Trump,” a spokesman emailed), Perry (“Thanks for thinking of him”) and Ted Cruz (“Not great timing on our end”); the previous nominee Mitt Romney (“You are kind to think of me,” he wrote); Trump stalwarts like Chris Christie (“We are going to take a pass this time”); Trump-averse Republican governors like Charlie Baker of Massachusetts (“The governor won’t be available”); and senators like Mike Lee, of Utah (“Senator Lee would love to talk to you about the state of the G.O.P. and conservatism in general. We are free anytime after Nov 8.”).

Jonathan Chait: “Donald Trump appeared on the national political stage almost eight years ago. Only then he was called ‘Sarah Palin.’ The circumstances of Palin’s ascent came very differently. While Trump nurtured his fame for decades in the New York media spotlight and won the Republican nomination after a protracted nationwide campaign, Palin was plucked in her political youth from the most remote state in the union and presented to the party as a fait accompli. Having no chance to consider or debate her selection, Republicans defended her unreservedly. What critics saw as dangerous ignorance buttressed by anti-intellectual resentment, conservatives defended as populist authenticity, a noble victim of venal coastal elites.”

“The actual Palin, transparent to her handlers behind the scenes, was even more horrifyingly buffoonish than the public version.”

Ramesh Ponnuru: “Republicans need to start worrying about losing their majority in the House of Representatives.”

“Republicans accept the conventional wisdom that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, and they know that her election would probably end their majority in the Senate. But in a year that has upended political expectations, they have clung to one comforting assumption: Their hold on the House is secure.”

“But Clinton’s lead in the polls is widening to the point that Republicans need to set aside their complacency. Split-ticket voting has declined over the last generation. If Clinton wins big — because Republican voters stay home, or swing voters choose her party, or both — House Republicans will struggle to win re-election.”

There is this story in Politico that just has to be a set up. Apparently, anonymous Wall Street donors have told Hillary Clinton that she can either have their cash or she can have Elizabeth Warren, but not both. LOL. Ed Kilgore sniffs out what is going on:

If the Clinton campaign decided to plant a story to amplify the credibility-enhancing potential of a Warren pick to grieving Sandernistas, this is pretty much how it would read: The dozens of big-money donors all insisted on anonymity because “they feared Warren’s wrath”; they warn that a Vice-President Warren could jeopardize a deal on their preferred version of corporate tax “reform”; they suggest Warren doesn’t feel “comfortable spending time with the rich people you need to raise money from”; and they say there is a “chance for much better relations between business and the White House than during President Barack Obama’s tenure” — a tenure that was so unfriendly to business, it featured the bailout of the financial sector, a “free trade” agreement that actually offers trade protection to well-connected American industries, and a cabinet staffed with no small number of former Wall Street executives — but not if Warren is in the White House serving as the wet-blanket-in-chief.

The set up is that Wall Street says don’t pick Warren and then Hillary says Screw You, I’m Picking Warren. There is no better way to prove her independence from Wall Street to Sanders supporters. In my mind, there is no way this story from Politico is not directly from the Clinton campaign. And to me it signals that Warren is definitely the VP pick.

Especially when you add that to these reports:

Two of Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) advisers told the Boston Globe over the weekend that the Democratic senator is “intrigued with the idea” of serving as Hillary Clinton’s running mate.

The Washington Post reports that Warren made a visit to Hillary Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters on Friday, where she greeted staffers, took photos and delivered a pep talk to mark the start of the general election, according to several people present at the visit. According to one person in the room, she told aides at Clinton’s New York headquarters, “Don’t screw this up.”

BuzzFeed: “During that 27-year period, Trump has claimed to donate millions to charity — especially when marketing products and events that bear his name. Some of those claims are in fact contradicted by the publicly available records. And while it’s impossible to estimate how much Trump has claimed to have raised for charity, the presumptive Republican nominee often touts his public-speaking fee at $1 million or more — and says he donates the fees to charity.”

David Wasserman on why this election may be a disaster for Paul Ryan: “At the moment, the likeliest outcome seems like a Democratic gain of five to 20 seats… However, don’t underestimate the effect that Democrats cutting the GOP majority in half might have. It could have big consequences for governing. Back in October, we predicted that Paul Ryan wouldn’t have it any easier than John Boehner did when it comes to fundamental spending and debt votes, thanks to rebellions from the very conservative House Freedom Caucus.”

“If Ryan were to lose half his 30-seat majority, he could be the last backstop against a Democratic White House and Senate. But Ryan would also likely be forced to reach across the aisle for Democratic votes even more often than Boehner did, giving the minority more leverage and possibly branding him as the GOP’s RINO-in-chief for good.”

“For reasons beyond simply the Trump conundrum, the speakership is looking less and less like the job Ryan signed up for eight months ago.”

A new analysis by Moody Analytics released Monday concluded that Trump’s proposed economic policies will mean 3.5 million fewer jobs, an unemployment rate of 7 percent (it’s currently below 5 percent), stagnating incomes, and declining stock prices and home values. Nolan McCaskill reports:

“Broadly, Mr. Trump’s economic proposals will result in a more isolated U.S. economy. Cross-border trade and immigration will be significantly diminished, and with less trade and immigration, foreign direct investment will also be reduced,” Mark Zandi, Chris Lafakis, Dan White and Adam Ozimek wrote in the report.

His policies would also diminish the country’s growth prospects, grow federal government deficits, increase the nation’s debt […]

“Driven largely by these factors, the economy will be significantly weaker if Mr. Trump’s economic proposals are adopted. Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office,” the authors wrote.

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  1. puck says:

    “Apparently, anonymous Wall Street donors have told Hillary Clinton that she can either have their cash or she can have Elizabeth Warren, but not both.”

    Even if this story is true, so what? Hillary is so far ahead of Trump in cash and momentum, she can basically do whatever she wants, for better or worse. If Trump’s incompetence and Hillary’s cash and polling advantage holds up, we will see the real Hillary and her actual positions, unconstrained by pressure from donors or electoral triangulation. I honestly don’t know if she’ll run to the right or to the left in that situation.

    On Warren, go for it, but watch out for the muzzle.

  2. mouse says:

    I’m wondering if she would be neutered as the VP and could push harder from the Senate? It would be great symbolically though.

  3. mouse says:

    That moonrise over the ocean last night was amazing. The dog had a great time swimming in the waves.

  4. mouse says:

    Hey up there! Do you people up there in the big county with most of the population care about the DE beaches and bays where you vacation? There is unprecedented development of beige plastic houses and deforestation everywhere in the inland bays drainage system and little to protect our recereational and natural resources. And even less to provide for roads and the infrastructure to keep this from becomming an ugly polluted urbanized hell. Please let your legislators in NCC if you care about these issues!!!

  5. SussexAnon says:

    Delaware is not an environmental state, Mouse. Learn it. Live it. Love it.

    We are gonna pave over every square inch of Sussex if it is close to a toxic body of water and build a overpass bypass over a bypass as long as NCC can get to their beach homes faster while not lifting a finger on east-west roads.

    Delaware, where you can buy a home in Greenwood and still be sold on living “at the beach”

  6. pandora says:

    Oh no you don’t. All this paving over, etc. comes from your elected officials and the developers they catered to. They sold you out decades ago. I watched it happen and it was heartbreaking. The time to stand up to this is long past. We have a place in Fenwick that we will be selling soon. We are looking at places like Cape May and Kure beach mostly because they don’t look like endless parking lots and actually have building restrictions.

    There was a way to do smart development. Sussex County didn’t do that, instead they took the fastest way to make a buck.

  7. SussexAnon says:

    Yeah, Cape May and Kure beach don’t have any traffic problems at all. Nope. Kure with it’s one road in and out past other beach towns AND Wilmington, NC.(and completely paved over and built upon except for their awesome park at the end of town) And NJ beach towns like Cape May put the PARK in the Garden State Parkway.

    And it’s not like DelDot or DNREC has ever really TRIED to be a positive affect for change. Like, “hey you might not want to build there because it floods ALL THE TIME and the road might wash away.” It ain’t Sussex money saving Broadkill and Primehook but damn sure we can spend millions to keep that road 6″ above sea level.

    Sussex might was totally misguided about “clustered development” but the state has been right there as enabler with the cash. But that’s ok, Rte 1 is going to look like Rt 13 up by New Castle Airport, if it doesn’t already. According to plan by almost everyone involved.

  8. mouse says:

    The sad part is that state and county officials aren’t even embarassed by the signs that say “danger no swimming or harvesting of shellfish due to high fecal bacteria counts” or do not eat more than 1 portin of finfish a year because it’s comtaminated with PCBs”

  9. Jason330 says:

    Re Warren: Doesn’t Clinto sorta haveto pick Warren now? I mean if she passes on Warren won’t it be viewed as knuckling under to Wall Street?

  10. anonymous says:

    “the state has been right there as enabler with the cash. ”

    If by “the state” you mean “state representatives from Sussex County,” then sure. I still don’t see how that’s on NCCo, though.

    What Sussex was misguided about was how much development its near-stagnant bays and restrictive geography could bear.

    The best way for the state to put a brake on beach-proximity development would be a statewide property tax.

    Here’s why: Taxes paid by out-of-state owners of (mostly) resort property keep Sussex County flush, but only because many of the infrastructure costs are paid at the state level in Delaware. The county can’t justify the kind of property tax increase that would slow development, but the state could, easily, especially by devoting the proceeds to education.

    DelTech’s Lonnie George, and now Mark Brainard, have long pushed for a statewide property tax dedicated (naturally) to their own fiefdom. If that money instead went to provide the funding for extra spending per poor kid, it would be a much easier sell. This is also a way to recapture funds from the handful of millionaires who change their state of primary residence to avoid state income tax, but retain their property in Delaware (the people Jack Markell likes to fret about).

    Nothing of the sort will ever happen as long as another dollar can be wrung from the vacation-home dreamers.

  11. mouse says:

    I don’t know a single person in NCC, especially legislators who don’t either vacation at the DE beaches or have a beach house. The voting power is all in NCC. The only way to adresss the carnage here is if people in NCC who care about the DE beach area make it known to their senators and reps.

  12. mouse says:

    There’s a development near me on Camp Arrowhead Rd. where the houses start at 400K and every single person I have met from there is a retired transplant tax refugee

  13. mouse says:

    There’s a new development just west of the abomination 5pts Lewes intersection called the Ocean Club. 600 new beige plastic houses with no trees 15 ft apart starting at 400K. Not a single working person from Sussex county will ever live there. The houses will be put together by illegals and few if any living wages jobs will come from this. All these folk will be on the road going through the abortion of an intersection at 5 points. It will be carnage. The east/west roads in Sussex are already very dangerous and have no left turn lanes. This is not reasonable by any measure

  14. anonymous says:

    “I don’t know a single person in NCC, especially legislators who don’t either vacation at the DE beaches or have a beach house.”

    Given that you live in Sussex, you might be dealing with a self-selected sample. I know many people in NCCo who don’t visit the Sussex beaches.

    “every single person I have met from there is a retired transplant tax refugee”

    Then I assume they’re all retired. I doubt any of them moved there from NCCo because of the tax savings; they’d be saving at most a couple of thousand dollars a year.

    That’s where a higher, statewide property tax would benefit all of us — well, all of us who don’t earn a living on the resort real estate market.

  15. anonymous says:

    @mouse: And I saw that the people who lost the zoning ruling on the mammoth commercial proposal north of the Lewes turnoff are going to court to fight the decision. It will get worse before it gets even worse than that. You’ve seen Ocean City, Md.

  16. Jason330 says:

    Except for a precious few zip codes, if there is a stupid, shortsighted, crappy way to develop something, that’s the way we do it in Delaware.

  17. mouse says:

    Yes, my anecdote is based on my experience with people in beach areas of Lewes, Rehoboth and Dewey. I was referring to out of state retirees leaving the surrounding high tax states for Sussex. There should be a transplant retiree tax

  18. mouse says:

    I hate those stinkin outlets. We don’t need more of that crap. The Tanger outlets are the most obnoxious and uncomfortable shopping experience possible. Tanger cares about nothing by extracting money with doing the least possible.

  19. donviti says:

    “The set up is that Wall Street says don’t pick Warren and then Hillary says Screw You, I’m Picking Warren. There is no better way to prove her independence from Wall Street to Sanders supporters. ”

    bwaaahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaa God you’re a dope

  20. Cassandra M says:

    So I’m sitting in the airport where all of the TV’s are tuned to CNN who is having a field day with trump’s money troubles.

  21. mouse says:

    I seriously doubt that Trump will pick up any new supporters outside the racist rubes who will support him no matter what. As long as liberals, moderates and democrats show up it will be an easy win for Clinton. Hopefully the senate and house go back too

  22. pandora says:

    Agreed. Those outlets are complete garbage and where they were placed was the height of stupidity. That’s a huge source of the traffic problem, not to mention a huge eyesore. But the entire area looks like those outlets now. With a little thought and a little less cashing out the area could have been developed beautifully, but that would have put less money into certain pockets. (And I expect traffic in a resort area. That wasn’t my complaint. What I don’t expect is endless strip malls that detract from the charm.)

    Here’s the way it’s worked at the Delaware beaches and a big part of the problem. Buy a beach house or commercial lot you want to expand (or knock down and build new), get elected to town (Fenwick, Dewey, etc.) council, change the rules (height requirements, lot easements, multi-family, parking requirements, etc.) and then build/do what you want.

    Go look at the history. Go look at who really sold you out. It wasn’t NCC. You might have been “told” that things had to be done/built because of NCC/tourists, but that isn’t the reason. Follow the money and you’ll find the answer.

    Sorry, but blaming this mess on NCC is dishonest. Everyone use to make fun of Ocean City, MD.. Good luck noticing where the state line is now – it’s an almost seamless transition.

  23. Dave says:

    @mouse, “There’s a development near me on Camp Arrowhead Rd. where the houses start at 400K and every single person I have met from there is a retired transplant tax refugee”

    Then you haven’t met very many of them in that development, because a whole bunch of them work, including me. Some telecommute, some commute, some have their own business. HVAC company owner, K Street Lawyer, nurse, actuarial consultant, civil engineer, regional manager for Wawa, VP Bank of America, new home sales manager, police officer. I could go on, but they all are paying Delaware taxes, even the ones who have a pension.

    And most, if you ask them, did not come here because of the taxes. I know I didn’t. I wanted to live at the beach, because I could. If taxes were higher than Virginia, I would have still moved here. While I also have a federal pension, exactly zero of that pension is exempted from Delaware taxes. Pretty unfair in my view, but it didn’t stop me from doing what I wanted to do.

  24. pandora says:

    Sussex County is conflicted when it comes to tourists and new people moving in (you’ll never be a Local! LOL! That’s a “thing” down there.) They hate them, but they desperately need them.

  25. Jason330 says:

    Wild video, and what a classy family.