“Dem to win White House” hits $0.75, a new high close on IEM
I track the futures trading markets rather than polls because people are betting on outcomes with real money, and therefor stand to make (or lose) real money. That clears out the fanboys and pretenders. Of the predicting markets, I tend to look at IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) because they have the history and larger volume of trades. So when I see “Dem to win White House” closing at $0.75, I’m impressed. [$0.75 means that people are buying and trading “Futures Contracts” called “Dem to win White House” for $0.75. If they hold onto them, those contracts will pay off $1.00 if/when that outcome happens. The more likely that outcome becomes, the close the trading price gets to $1.00]
As a point of comparison, at on this day in 2008, “Dem to win White House” closed at $0.60.
Well the market is often infatuated with whimsy, since it changes on a whim or the latest faux pas, scare, cloud in the sky, and faint breeze from the Midwest or other compass point.
Generally, I am glad to see Trump still being Trump, but I’ll feel better once the GOP convention is over and the Trump is still being Trump and is the official nominee.
You may be interested to know that “Trump to be nominee” is trading at $0.90. So there are at least some bettors who don’t think it is a done deal.
@J “…is trading at $0.90.”
…and dropping.
I’m sure multiple someones out there are trying to buy an exit for Trump.
I wonder what his price is?
His ego is everything. Whatever maintains his ego is in the price range. He cannot bear to lose and can’t quit without being seen as a loser. It’s a conundrum for him and for the GOP.
My guess is that there will be some sort of “October surprise”, such as a health issue that forces him to withdraw, but not before he secures the nomination and his place In the history books.
@D “My guess is that there will be some sort of “October surprise”, such as a health issue that forces him to withdraw,…”
And it’s got to be something dramatic. Maybe he’ll take a bullet or two, and blame it on some innocent immigrant. For this to have any chance of working, he’ll need an establishment and somewhat popular VP candidate. If he chooses McCain and McCain actually accepts, then look for exactly something like this…
Trump will need a VP candidate at the end of his career, because nobody with any potential future is going to hitch his star to Trump. Is Admiral Stockdale available?
I love some Liberal Elite, but you’ve been reading too much John le Carré or something.