Friday Open Thread [5.20.16]
Found this on DeviantArt. Amazing. Artist unknown.
Politico: “While Trump’s insurgent candidacy has spurred record-setting Republican primary turnout in state after state, the early statistics show that the vast majority of those voters aren’t actually new to voting or to the Republican Party, but rather they are reliable past voters in general elections. They are only casting ballots in a Republican primary for the first time.”
“If Trump isn’t bringing the promised wave of new voters into the GOP, it’s far less likely the Manhattan businessman can transform a 2016 Electoral College map that begins tilted against the Republican Party. And whether Trump’s voters are truly new is a question of urgent interest both to GOP operatives and Hillary Clinton and her allies, who have dispatched their top analytics experts to find the answer.”
Last year was the first year that more than 90 percent of Americans had health insurance, new federal data shows. Thanks, Obama.
Paul Krugman explains why Trump is far more vulnerable in the general election than he was in the primary:
First, he’s running a campaign fundamentally based on racism. But Republicans couldn’t call him on that, because more or less veiled appeals to racial resentment have been key to their party’s success for decades. Clinton, on the other hand, won the nomination thanks to overwhelming nonwhite support, and will have no trouble hitting hard on this issue.
Second, Trump is proposing wildly irresponsible policies that benefit the rich. But so were all the other Republicans, so they couldn’t attack him for that. Clinton can.
Third, Trump’s personal record as a businessman is both antisocial and just plain dubious. Republicans, with their cult of the entrepreneur, couldn’t say anything about that. Again, Clinton can.
Amanda Marcotte’s take on Trump’s fake publicist interview:
Many of us have long assumed that Trump’s belligerence isn’t the sign of confidence, as he would have us believe, but instead a paper-thin cover for what is, in fact, his overwhelming insecurity. Pretending to be his own publicist in a pathetic bid to trick people into thinking he’s more sexually desirable than he clearly is? That’s the wealthy man’s version of a high school nerd telling everyone he has a Canadian girlfriend he met in summer camp. There’s no need to speculate anymore about Trump having severe emotional issues that lead him to act out the way he does. We now know it, beyond any shadow of a doubt.
The Washington Post editorial board lashes out at Trump and, more importantly, the Republicans who support him:
Taking on false identities may be merely weird; flat-out lies are more disturbing. As is so often the case, Mr. Trump asks voters to ignore evidence and reason based on nothing more than his say-so.
Similarly, Mr. Trump has said that he would release his tax returns, but he routinely evades questions about when that will happen. He told the Associated Press last week that he feels no obligation to release them before the election, and when asked what tax rate he paid, he told ABC News last Friday that it is “none of your business.” Presidential candidates’ tax information has been the public’s business for decades.
Rudimentary adherence to the truth and respect for openness matter. Mr. Priebus and his confederates in amorality dismiss or excuse Mr. Trump’s mockery of these precious political values because they believe politics matters more than principle. Mr. Trump’s campaign will end, one way or another, in November. The disgrace of the Republicans who have supported him will not.
Today is quite a good day for the Democrats. Why? Because it shows how easy it was for Priorities USA, the pro-Hillary SuperPac (originally a pro-Obama SuperPac), to hurt Trump with a very focused strike on his immense vulnerability with women. But more than that, they clearly got under his skin. Trump’s been on Twitter raging non-stop all morning about how he was “misquoted” in the Priorities attack ad. I discussed whether he was ‘misquoted’ here. Basically he wasn’t. But, Good Lord buddy, good luck with whining about a SuperPac being mean.
Trump and Trump’s campaign know that he’s toxic to women for numerous reasons. Getting hit on this gets him mad – mad and undisciplined. No one likes a whiner. I suspect that SuperPacs in Hillary’s orbit, seeing this, will run more ads which are a bit unfair, which push the margins, just to get inside Donald’s head like this.
Note that everyone and I mean everyone in Trump’s entourage, even his official ‘supporters’ who show up on the cable networks, calls him “Mr Trump”. Who else gets referred to like that? Someone who demands that kind of fealty and subservience never handles criticism well. It also undermines his core political strength, dominance politics.
I am glad I am not the only one who has noticed the Mr. Trump thing. I agree completely. They would only do it if it was an explicit order from Donald himself.
Last week Jonathan Chait wrote that the rise of Donald Trump surprised us because we underestimated how many Republican voters are idiots. Gene Demby penned a thought-provoking response with the title: It’s Gotten A Lot Harder To Act Like Whiteness Doesn’t Shape Our Politics.
It’s telling that Chait finds it easier to imagine that huge swaths of Republican primary voters are childlike and naive, rather than folks who quite rationally dig Trump’s direct appeals to their interests — their racial interests. Among Trump’s most notorious policy proposals is a moratorium on Muslims entering the country. He has called Mexican immigrants “rapists.” Maybe we should concede that these declarations are not incidental to his appeal among his supporters, but central to them. Calling them “idiots” posits that they’ve been duped, when perhaps Trump is saying precisely what they want to hear.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds Sen. John McCain leading a multi-candidate primary field with 39%, followed by Kelli Ward at 26%, Alex Meluskey at 4%, Scott McBean at 3%, and Clair Van Steenwyk at 2%. Another 27% are undecided.
In a head-to-head match up, McCain and Ward are tied at 41%.
Key finding: “Only 35% of GOP voters approve of the job McCain is doing to 50% who disapprove.”
First Read: “Donald Trump last night reached a joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee, allowing him to collect checks as large as $449,000 to benefit his campaign and party. But consider this: Hillary Clinton reached her own joint fundraising agreement with the DNC in August of 2015 — so almost a year ago. And when you throw in the fact that Trump just hired a pollster and that there still isn’t a designated pro-Trump Super PAC, you see how late of a general-election start Trump is getting, all less than six months before Election Day 2016.”
Matt Taibbi asks if this is the end for Republicans: “If this isn’t the end for the Republican Party, it’ll be a shame. They dominated American political life for 50 years and were never anything but monsters. They bred in their voters the incredible attitude that Republicans were the only people within our borders who raised children, loved their country, died in battle or paid taxes. They even sullied the word ‘American’ by insisting they were the only real ones. They preferred Lubbock to Paris, and their idea of an intellectual was Newt Gingrich. Their leaders, from Ralph Reed to Bill Frist to Tom DeLay to Rick Santorum to Romney and Ryan, were an interminable assembly line of shrieking, witch-hunting celibates, all with the same haircut – the kind of people who thought Iran-Contra was nothing, but would grind the affairs of state to a halt over a blow job or Terri Schiavo’s feeding tube.”
“A century ago, the small-town American was Gary Cooper: tough, silent, upright and confident. The modern Republican Party changed that person into a haranguing neurotic who couldn’t make it through a dinner without quizzing you about your politics. They destroyed the American character. No hell is hot enough for them. And when Trump came along, they rolled over like the weaklings they’ve always been, bowing more or less instantly to his parodic show of strength.”
Robert Kagan on how fascism comes to America: “The Republican Party’s attempt to treat Donald Trump as a normal political candidate would be laughable were it not so perilous to the republic. If only he would mouth the party’s ‘conservative’ principles, all would be well.”
“But of course the entire Trump phenomenon has nothing to do with policy or ideology. It has nothing to do with the Republican Party, either, except in its historic role as incubator of this singular threat to our democracy. Trump has transcended the party that produced him. His growing army of supporters no longer cares about the party. Because it did not immediately and fully embrace Trump, because a dwindling number of its political and intellectual leaders still resist him, the party is regarded with suspicion and even hostility by his followers. Their allegiance is to him and him alone.”
Nah ha.
Here is my new thing to worry about… When Trump loses and the Republican Party continues to attack our 240 year old Democracy, and our democratic traditions.
People see authoritarianism as good leadership. It’s innate to our tribal urges. The buffoon could win. Every angry uneducated white guy who has never voted before will be out.
How is that different than what is currently taking place?
You worry too much. It is not good for you.
Also, I was disappointed at the lack of support in your poll for Vulcan, Alpha Centauri and Sirius.
Josh Marshall is exactly right. Attacking him on policy is fruitless. This is schoolyard fighting, and his thin skin is an easy target.
I keep voting for Kepler 62f, but only one vote still…RIGGED!!
Why isn’t it a legal requirement that if you are running for President, you must release your tax return? How else are we to judge if a candidate has a significant financial conflict of interest on some policy matter?
“I am glad I am not the only one who has noticed the Mr. Trump thing. ”
And have you noticed that “Secretary Clinton” thing? The effrontery!
“If this isn’t the end for the Republican Party, it’ll be a shame.”
Conservatives are well along in the process of abandoning the GOP as a vehicle for their agenda, which Democrats are now willing and able to promote for them.
I picked up a call yesterday for a very long poll about public education in Delaware, seemingly focused on whether the public school system is providing students with a good education by effectively preparing them for work and/or college. The poll also asked specific questions about proposed reforms and whether I would be supportive of raising taxes, reassessing property taxes, etc. I live in the city, but the poll asked very few questions about schools in my “community,” focused instead on Delaware schools.
I agree with Puck’s comment. (I think… it’s so hard to know what anyone really means these days)
Senator Sanders, Secretary Clinton, President Obama… Trump is only a “Mr”. That’s what he should be referred to as (other than, pigot… which is a term I just now made up for pig/bigot.
@DG “Why isn’t it a legal requirement that if you are running for President, you must release your tax return? ”
Because when they wrote the constitution, there were no taxes.
The only real question is how do voters respond to: “Ha. Ha. I’m hiding lots of bad stuff, but vote for me anyway.” ??
Ironically, the corporate “job creator” folks that the right wing angry uneducated white guys shill for are slowly pulling out of the slave states because of the new laws legalizing discrimination.
Honestly, that’s how it has always been in the south, mouse. One of the reasons that the south stood no chance of victory is because there wasn’t an industrial base down there that could manufacture enough of the implements of war.
As for Puck’s Secretary Clinton remark, I suggest that during the next interview with a Clinton surrogate, see how many times they say “Hillary” then when a Trump surrogate comes on, count how many times they say “Donald”.
“Trump” is his brand name and for better or worse, Trump still thinks there is value in it.
But when your opponent is trying his damndest to make your last name a dirty word, it’s probably better to go with just “Hillary.”
Both Senator Sanders and Secretary Clinton have pushed the “Bernie” and “Hillary” narrative while the Donald has insisted on “Mr. Trump.” Not sure why the formality, but you could also look at it as an attempt by the Democratic candidates to be more relateable.
Also remember that the nickname “The Donald” was given to him by his first wife, which came out in the divorce proceedings. I don’t know how Trump feels about “The Donald” but I suspect he’d rather avoid it.
Which would support the supposition that this was a commandment from the top.
And I suspect that Hillary has made her preferences known to be called just Hillary. At least she gets to be called Secretary Clinton rather than Mrs. Clinton.
And if she weren’t Secretary, she would be Senator. Lots of things available for her beyond “Mrs.”
For the worrywarts, here’s Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg saying something I agree with completely: Played properly, this could be an earthquake election, shaking the system to its foundations in the progressives’ favor.
This is his key point:
“We are witnessing the crash of the Republican Party as we know it, and progressives should dramatically change their strategy to maximize conservative losses and move the stalled progressive reform agenda in the election’s aftermath.
“Rightfully shaken by off-year losses, low base turnout and Trump’s appeal to some union members, progressive strategy has been cramped by worst-case assumptions and by the goal of stopping the GOP from expanding their Electoral College map. That caution risks missing the opportunity to magnify GOP losses, expand the Democratic map and targets, shift control of states and legislatures, break the gridlock and create momentum for reform.”
Full report (pdf):
http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1032/Dcor_RPP_The%20GOP%20Crash%20and%20the%20Historic%20Moment%20for%20Progressives_5.17.2016.pdf
President Hillary will have a tough act to follow as Obama, freed from the need to seek donor funds for reelection, continues to feel the Bern:
“The Obama administration late Tuesday unveiled a final rule extending overtime pay to millions of workers.
The regulation makes anyone earning up to $47,476 a year, or roughly $913 a week, eligible for overtime pay.
The rule is one of the most significant regulatory initiatives of President Obama’s second term, and has drawn fierce opposition from industry groups.”
The revolution is already underway.
“
I heard the republicans are proposing a bill to take away overtime pay. What does it take for people to see how the GOP works against average people..
And that bill has the requisite Orwellian name “Protecting Workplace Advancement and Opportunity Act.”
“What does it take for people to see how the GOP works against average people”
I dunno but taking away overtime in an election year just might do it. Please, please bring this bill to a vote before the election!
Ever notice how no matter how many 8 figure CEO bonuses are handed out, no matter how many CEO stock options are given away, its never bad for business but giving anything to average workers is always bad for business? Why is that?
“Obama, freed from the need to seek donor funds for reelection, continues to feel the Bern:”
What is he chopped liver? Why isn’t it:
“Obama, freed from the need to seek donor funds for reelection, continues to feel the Obama”
I mean shouldn’t Obama get some credit? Actions speak louder than words and Obama is actually doing it and not just talking about it. Then again, there’s that $15 minimum wage goal post he hasn’t reached yet, so I guess we shouldn’t go overboard with any praise quite yet.
Come on. Obama had since 2009 to do these kinds of regulation changes and executive action. I suspect you are right that we are now seeing the real Obama, but if so then what held him back for six years?
Because it would kill him to give Obama credit for anything.
Last week, Reihan Salam from he National Review thought that Obama was using issues like contraception, transgender issues and some banking ones as wedge issues for this election. He notes that these are things that the GOP aren’t in lockstep on yet and are also muddled by Trump’s positions on some of these. This strikes me as quite right — giving the Dems some issues to run on.
Some Americans could be sitting in their own houses today if this overtime change had been made in say, 2011, instead of waiting for when Obama thought he wanted a wedge issues. I’m not buying though that that’s why Obama did it now. Like I said, I think this is the real Obama, and he calculated, probably correctly, that if he had done these actions in his first term, his donors would have bailed and we’d have a GOP president now. Bernie is right about accepting money.
And so Obama, calculating correctly, saved the nation from 4 years of the GOP. Big money isn’t going away regardless of how much the nation Berns. I’m giving Obama some credit regardless of how much any one wants to give it to someone else.
You are probably right. Our Democrats couldn’t have have figured out how to win even running on expanded overtime.