Wednesday Open Thread [5.4.16]

NATIONAL—CNN/ORC–Clinton 54, Trump 41
CALIFORNIA—KABC/SurveyUSA–Clinton 57, Sanders 38
WEST VIRGINIA—PPP–Sanders 45, Clinton 37

A new Associated Industries of Florida poll finds Hillary Clinton would crush Donald Trump by 49% to 36% margin if the election were held today. From the memo: “In this critical swing state, it is clear to us that Republicans continue to suffer substantial brand damage amongst all segments of the ascending electorate (younger voters, Hispanics & No Major Party voters) and this presidential campaign has clearly exacerbated these attitudes.”

A new RABA Research poll in North Carolina finds that 50% of North Carolina voters disapprove of the new law requiring that transgender people use the public bathrooms that correspond to the gender on their birth certificate, while 35% approved and 16% weren’t sure.

Alright. Jason and I have to admit that we were wrong. Ted Cruz will not be the nominee. And Unstable Isotope was right: Donald Trump will be the nominee.

Bernie Sanders rebounded after a string of five defeats over the last two weeks to defeat Hillary Clinton in the Indiana Democratic presidential 52% to 48%. He wins 43 delegates to Hillary’s 37 from the contest, meaning he has gained 6 delegates on Hillary from the performance. At that rate, he will catch up to Hillary sometime in April 2017 after she has passed her first budget as President. Hillary leads Sanders still by 296 pledged delegates, thus Sander’s win last night, or wins by similar margins in all of the remaining nine contests, does little to impede Clinton’s likely path to the nomination.

Ted Cruz had a much easier path to the nomination of his party than does Bernie Sanders in the Democratic Party. Ted Cruz dropped out last night because that path was foreclosed. Bernie’s path to the nomination was foreclosed on April 19 after his 20 point loss in the New York primary. But he remains in the race.

Wall Street Journal: “So to triumph, Mr. Trump will have to alter the electoral map in historically dramatic ways. He will have to wrest away not just a few states—like Colorado, Virginia, Nevada or New Mexico—that went with Mr. Obama in both 2008 and 2012 and appear to be turning reliably blue. He will also almost certainly have to grab a couple of states—like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin—that haven’t fallen into the R column since the 1980s.”

Nate Cohn: “Yes, it’s still a long way until Election Day. And Mr. Trump has already upended the conventional wisdom many times. But this is when early horse-race polls start to give a rough sense of the November election, and Mr. Trump trails Mrs. Clinton by around 10 percentage points in early general election surveys, both nationally and in key battleground states.”

“He even trails in some polls of several states where Mitt Romney won in 2012, like North Carolina, Arizona, Missouri and Utah.”

“Could Mr. Trump overtake Mrs. Clinton? Sure. Mrs. Clinton is very unpopular herself. Her polling lead is a snapshot in time, before the barrage of attack ads that are sure to come her way. There have been 10-point shifts over the general election season before, even if it’s uncommon. But there isn’t much of a precedent for huge swings in races with candidates as well known as Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton. A majority of Americans may not like her, but they say they’re scared of him. To have a chance, he’ll need to change that.”

Rick Klein: “Coming soon, perhaps, in the year that’s seen everything: contested conventions that are actually no-contests. Persistent challenges in both the Republican and Democratic races could strain both dictionary definitions and party resources in the run-up to July. On the Republican side, a Ted Cruz loss in Indiana on Tuesday would put Donald Trump on a definite path to capturing a majority of delegates on the first ballot. Cruz, though, seems unlikely to accept that reality. He’s already started accusing news organizations (without evidence) of cooking the delegate books to favor Trump, and has made clear that only achieving 1,237 bound delegates will meet his definition of securing a majority.”

“For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders’ path to the nomination is even narrower than Cruz’s. Yet Sanders declared Sunday that ‘the convention will be a contested contest’ as he will seek to convince superdelegates to join him, all the way until the party gathers in Philadelphia. Cruz and Sanders have earned the right to go on. But the pressure for them to get out and acknowledge the all-but-inevitable will grow if they don’t win in Indiana. And at some point soon, party leaders will want to hand over their conventions’ keys to the man and woman who will almost certainly top the ticket this summer.”

Dan Balz: “Officials say two things are not likely to change. First, Trump would continue to be an outspoken candidate prepared to say unpopular or imprudent things… Second, officials say, Trump’s lack of predictability — what critics regard as his lack of discipline — would prove to be an asset against Clinton, whom they regard as a far more conventional candidate.”

“Clinton’s team and those at outside groups allied with her campaign are making similar assessments, looking for their own opportunities to expand the map into some traditional Republican states while going to school on mistakes made by Trump’s rivals during the primaries. One big lesson is that Trump’s opponents waited too long to go after him and were timid when they did. Clinton and the Democrats probably would go early and hard against him.”

Gerald Seib: “The very attributes where Mrs. Clinton is strongest with voters—being knowledgeable, experienced and having the right temperament to be a good president—also happen to be areas where voters harbor some of their biggest doubts about Mr. Trump. And the attributes where Mr. Trump gets strong mark from voters—an ability to bring change to the country and being honest and straightforward—happen to be areas where Mrs. Clinton is weakest.”

“In short, these candidates aren’t just different; they are opposites. She’s the competent veteran who isn’t quite trusted, he’s the brash newcomer who is a bit scary.”

President Obama told WMUR that Donald Trump is not equipped to deal with the challenges of being president.

Said Obama: “I think that he is not somebody who even within the Republican Party can be considered as equipped to deal with the problems of this office, but look, we live in a democracy. If in fact the Republicans nominate Mr. Trump, then it’s going to be an interesting fall season. I’m confident that ultimately the Democrat in that circumstance will win.”

The Fix: “And here’s the underlying math. If Clinton wins the 19 states (and D.C.) that every Democratic nominee has won from 1992 to 2012, she has 242 electoral votes. Add Florida’s 29 and you get 271. Game over.”

“The Republican map — whether with Trump, Cruz or the ideal Republican nominee (Paul Ryan?) as the standard-bearer — is decidedly less friendly. There are 13 states that have gone for the GOP presidential nominee in each of the last six elections. But they only total 102 electorate votes. That means the eventual nominee has to find, at least, 168 more electoral votes to get to 270. Which is a hell of a lot harder than finding 28 electoral votes.”

Chris Cillizza breaks down the GOP’s rough map:

If Clinton wins the 19 states (and D.C.) that every Democratic nominee has won from 1992 to 2012, she has 242 electoral votes. Add Florida’s 29 and you get 271. Game over.

The Republican map — whether with Trump, Cruz or the ideal Republican nominee (Paul Ryan?) as the standard-bearer — is decidedly less friendly. There are 13 states that have gone for the GOP presidential nominee in each of the last six elections. But they only total 102 electorate votes. That means the eventual nominee has to find, at least, 168 more electoral votes to get to 270. Which is a hell of a lot harder than finding 28 electoral votes.

Matt Yglesias cites John Sides’ findings from last week that most voters are pretty optimistic about the economy and says:

By historical standards, this is the kind of public sentiment that has almost always led to the incumbent party retaining power. The exception was 1968, when people had a lot of non-economic complaints with the Johnson administration.

There are certainly other public opinion indicators out there that indicate a more restive public (the right track/wrong track numbers come to mind), but the overall political system actually seems to be trending toward a complacent outcome, which is exactly what the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index suggests we should expect.

Obviously an average is an average (it is worth noting that the positive trend is evident for all income groups), and in a big country you can still have enormous pockets of anger and discontent alongside an overall atmosphere of placidity. In most domains that aren’t politics, attracting a passionate minority following is a perfectly good business strategy. It’s a great way to secure ratings for a television show, for example, whether it’s The Apprentice or The Sean Hannity Show. But in politics you need a majority, and it doesn’t seem to be the case that the majority is feeling some historically anomalous level of economic discontent.

Byron York: “Cruz’s outburst came too late to have much of an effect on Indiana voters, who were already going to the polls as he spoke. But his words are sure to set off a debate on why Cruz did not reveal his feelings earlier. Why wait until his back was against the wall?”

“Obviously Cruz did not love Trump or think he was terrific back in December. Cruz was acting strategically, in what he thought was his political self interest. Now, whatever happens in Indiana, the question for Cruz will be: Why didn’t you say what you felt all along?”

American Prospect: “Hillary Clinton would come into office without ambitions for the kind of big, transformative bills Obama passed. Nevertheless, her administration could follow exactly the same pattern: two years in which to pass legislation, followed by a Republican victory that robs her of any hope of making new laws with Congress’s help. And that’s if she’s lucky.”

“The best-case scenario for Clinton is that she gets her Democratic Congress in those first two years—with extremely small margins, particularly in the House. And then what happens in 2018? Presidents almost always lose ground in Congress in off-year elections, and given the more Republican-friendly cast of the off-year electorate (older and more white, for starters), Republicans would be highly likely to take back the House. Even if Democrats take the Senate this year, it will be very hard for them to hold on to it.”

“Republicans may despise Hillary Clinton even more than they do Obama. So whatever she can accomplish will be only over their most fevered and absolute opposition. Getting anything through Congress won’t be easy—and she’ll have precious little time to do it.”