The GOP’s Electoral Map Problem
Chris Cillizza starts the analysis of the Electoral Map:
Electoral Map 5/4/2016
So if she counts on winning the states that Dems usually win plus Florida, she wins.
The GOP starts with a map that gets them 102 votes. They have to get 168 more electoral votes — which is a tougher task than Hillary’s 29. Which, really, was the GOP’s problem in 2012 when Obama won re-election.
Cook Electoral 5/4/2016
Cillizza also shows this Cook Report distribution of how states have voted in Presidentials in the past 20 years, which further demonstrates how much work the GOP has ahead of it.
What you are left with then is an electoral map in which the Democratic nominee begins at a significant advantage over the Republican one. (It is the obverse of the massive Republican electoral college edge of the 1980s.) And that edge is totally distinct from any individual candidate and his/her strengths or weaknesses. Yes, Trump as the nominee is more problematic than Ryan as the nominee, but the idea that Ryan would start the general election with a coin-flip chance of being elected president is just wrong.
Right. And Trump certainly doesn’t have a coin-flip chance, either. Which isn’t to say that anything could happen, but right now the map is still a D advantage.
Tags: Electoral Map
Agreed. The map tilts D. The only prayer Trump has is to bring out new voters and folks who usually don’t vote in Midwest and rust belt , much like the Perot phenomenon. If he does that, the race will be hard to poll and tough to figure out…Don’t count him out. The unorthodox campaign keeps opponents off kilter. He has some strong appeal on trade and anti- establishment rhetoric. I think Hillary will try to define him hard early, like what they did to Mitt Romney.
She should totally ignore him. The bigger an ass he makes of himself, the more votes she will get. All she has to do is avoid a major mistake, or rather, multiple major mistakes.
This won’t look like ’64 because the solid South and the mountain West will vote Trump. But the popular vote will be overwhelming.
The Republicans ignored him and laughed him off…look where it got them. She only needs to go negative…and not negative in a lying, smearing type of way, but negative in a “play clips of him speaking” type of way while offering a contrasting vision of America. But we should not ignore him, nor should we pretend it will be easy. We should fight for every vote like it is 50/50, and if we end up with a landslide, all the better. I don’t buy that there are tons of secret Trump supporters, but I acknowledge that he taps into a real sentiment in this country (no, not racism, the other one) of people who were in power and now aren’t, who were prosperous and now aren’t….those who had power and no longer do are often the most dangerous.
Mikem2784, that all adds up. I will add that President Obama appears ready to campaign hard for the Democratic nominee. That is no small thing.
Don’t get swept up in fighting the last war instead of this one. Trying to correct every lie Trump will tell isn’t going to work; it plays into the image of her as self-righteous and strident.
I like the “play clips of him” instead. Just running the clip of the KKK grand poobah endorsing him out to do the job.