Trump Futures Tank on Contested Convention Talk
Over the weekend is dawned on a lot of people that Donald Trump is in deep trouble unless he gets to the Republican National Convention with the nomination sewed up. Why is that? Well, take Delaware’s 16 delegates as an example.
Say Trump “wins” in the Delaware primary on April 26th. Delaware is a “winner take all” primary, so all of Delaware’s 16 delegates will be honor bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot. If Trump fails to secure the nomination on the first ballot, they’ll re-poll the delegation and ZERO of Delaware’s 16 delegates will vote for Trump.
How can I be so sure of the wholesale flip? Easy. Trump has no ground game. While Trump may have the name recognition to “win” on primary day, those 16 “Trump” delegates are going to be appointed by the DEGOP. So, the Delaware delegation is going to be comprised of people like Mike Castle, Charlie Copeland, Dave Burris, and Ken Simpler. Do you think any of those guys are going to vote for Trump on the second ballot? I don’t. My guess is that Kasich will get 15 of Delaware’s 16 votes in round 2.
Now picture the same thing happening in delegations all over the country. The primary voters said “Trump” but the party stalwarts serving as delegates are going to the convention knowing that they only need to be “faithful” for one round of voting. After that, all bets are off. None of the Republican functionaries and lifers are going to be fighting for Trump to be the nominee. Ultimately, the people who installed Romney will restore the natural order and nominate in someone who isn’t a belligerent nut job.
The real question is the reaction of Trump’s followers, at the very least there will be a sustained chorus of “we was robbed!” and they’d be right. An assortment of pundits have stated that regardless of the candidate the Republicans will close ranks and vote for whoever assumes the mantle of candidate. But I’m not so sure, especially since the pundits and polls have been relentlessly wrong about Trump.
If deprived at the convention, although secretly relived, Trump will bolt to save face and take some people with him. The Republican candidate will lose, but some Senate seats will be saved. The pretense that the GOP isn’t a racist organization will be preserved. They will take their medicine.
So… it occurred to me that the same dynamic applied to the Democrats means that Carper, Markell and the rest of the Delaware delegation are not going to vote for Sanders when he forces a second ballot at the Dems open convention. That’s a plain fact.
And yet, as long as Clinton hasn’t won – Bernie hasn’t lost.
Are you ready for President Ryan?
But before that, Roger Stone’s “Days of Ratfucker Rage”:
http://www.salon.com/2016/04/06/donald_trumps_days_of_rage_as_the_gop_primary_reaches_its_tipping_point_trump_prepares_for_all_out_war/
“Over the weekend is dawned on a lot of people that Donald Trump is in deep trouble unless he gets to the Republican National Convention with the nomination sewed up. ”
In order for it dawn on someone they would had to been asleep for the last 6 months. Trump is a populist candidate. If he doesn’t win on the first round all bets are off.
However, he is well on track to reach the necessary delegate count and needs only 56% of remaining delegates to reach the required number. If he doesn’t crash and burn, he’s there.
Trump has been underestimated the entire campaign and rumors of his impending demise are greatly exaggerated.