Archive for January, 2016
Special Sunday Edition of the Open Thread.
Yesterday, the Gold Standard Iowa poll by Anne Selzer was released. As expected, it finds Clinton and Trump ahead, though they find that Trump’s lead is beatable whereas other polls showed him with a larger more insurmountable lead.
Here are some interesting points from the cross tabs and internals of the poll: “Another sign of a possible cliffhanger Monday night: Although just 9% of likely GOP caucusgoers haven’t yet made a choice, they’re part of the 45% who could be persuaded to change their minds in the final hours.”
As has been the case all along, Sanders has a robust lead among first-time Caucus-goers, but they represent only about a third of likely participants, as compared to 60 percent when Barack Obama beat Clinton in 2008 via a huge turnout. And while Sanders’s base includes both men and women under 30, Clinton has a better than 2-to-1 lead among seniors — still the most likely voters to show up Monday night — and desire for a woman to become president seems more intense than a passion for the kind of political revolution Sanders promises.
Among Republicans, the Iowa Poll confirms the conventional wisdom that Donald Trump has overtaken Ted Cruz; he leads Cruz 28 to 23 percent, reversing a 25 to 22 percent Cruz lead in the last Selzer poll. But the bit of conventional wisdom passionately hoped for by many establishment Republicans — a Marco Rubio surge past Cruz into second place — just ain’t happening. He’s at 15 percent, with no particular signs of momentum, unless you believe Selzer missed some sort of very late, debate-driven change (this poll was still in the field yesterday, though).
Saturday Open Thread [1.30.2016]
![Saturday Open Thread [1.30.2016]](http://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Blue.Open_.Thread-240x180.png "Saturday Open Thread [1.30.2016]")
An interesting thing is happening: President Obama’s poll numbers are rising. The Washington Post reported this week:
President Obama’s job-approval rating has rebounded into positive territory, boosted by improving assessments of his handling of the nation’s economy since 2012 and thawing ratings on handling the terrorist threat, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Fifty percent of Americans approve of Obama’s overall job performance in the new poll, similar to 51 percent in October. While barely positive, Obama’s marks are up slightly from 45 and 46 percent in the past two months…. Fully 50 percent approve of his handling of the economy, while 46 percent disapprove, the best margin in Post-ABC polls since 2009.
In late January of 2008, President Bush’s approving rating was in the high 20’s to low thirties. In fact, President Obama’s approval rating is practically identical to that of Ronald Reagan at this stage of his Presidency. Reagan was at 47% approval in late January, compared to Obama’s 48%, according to Gallup. Nate Silver added yesterday that the latest RealClearPolitics average shows the president’s support reaching its highest point since June 2013. It could be a temporary blip, of course, but Nate added, “Maybe Obama looks a little better in comparison to the unpopular set of candidates they’ve been seeing and hearing so much from lately.”
The Weekly Addresses
In this week’s address, the President discussed his plan to give all students across the country the chance to learn computer science (CS) in school.
In his weekly message, Governor Markell unveiled a Fiscal Year 2017 state budget that invests in stronger schools and workforce training, innovation and infrastructure to spur economic growth, better health and a high quality of life.
This week, the House Administration Committee released House Bill 165, sponsored by Rep. Debra Heffernan, which would make full-time State of Delaware employees who have at least one year of employment eligible for 12 weeks of paid maternity and paternity leave.
Politics 101 – Find out what they want, and don’t give it to them until they give you something you want.
Terry McAuliffe demonstrates how to deal with Republicans: Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) will announce on Friday a deal with Republican lawmakers that will reinstate Virginia’s policy of recognizing concealed carry licenses from most states,…The compromise legislation would allow the state to take guns away from individuals under a two-year protective order for domestic violence, […]
This One’s For You, Kevin
Earlier today I asked Kevin O. to stop turning Delaware Dem’s death penalty post into an abortion post. My comment was brief, but I should have taken the time to explain that his comments were off topic and that he was free to post his thoughts on an open thread. For that, I apologize. Kevin […]
Friday Open Thread [1.29.2016]
![Friday Open Thread [1.29.2016]](http://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Black.White_.Open_.Thread-240x180.png "Friday Open Thread [1.29.2016]")
Aaron Blake uses data from the latest WaPo/ABC poll to say that the electorate really isn’t all that angry.
Donald Trump is angry. Bernie Sanders is angry. And Americans think their neighbors are very angry, too.
Except that they’re simply not — or at least, not abnormally angry. Despite the rise of two candidates who have embraced the idea of anger, our country simply isn’t unusually angry about how things are going in Washington
I think this race is going to be very boring. It is going to be a status quo election. Hillary and Trump will quickly win their nominations, and we will be “entertained” by Trump all year long, and then Hillary will win in a devastating landslide that will destroy the Republican Party for a few generations.
Delaware Political (More Or Less) Weekly: January (More Or Less) 22-28, 2016
Kathleen McGuiness is for real. Except for that whole residency thingy. BTW, turns out she moved out to Park Slope b/c a couple of her kids are competitive snowboarders. Yes, she raised a lot of money. What really surprised me is that almost all of the money comes from Delaware. Pretty much every D in Sussex County with money has ponied up. Guess there are more D’s with money in Sussex County than I thought. Bethany Hall-Long has raised a lot of $$’s as well. Ciro Poppiti has enough money to be competitive. Sherry Dorsey Walker, Greg Fuller, and Brad Eaby don’t.
Trinidad Navarro better get his ass in gear. Those who deal with the insurance commissioner’s office have apparently resigned themselves to, or more likely, fallen in love with the idea of, Incompetent Karen Weldin Stewart serving as Insurance Commissioner. He’s only raised $11K? Vs. $83K?
The Cause Endures
It is in these moments that people who are novices or who are inexperienced in the way of politics, and the long arc of history get frustrated and often walk away. For example, I saw one commenter on Facebook blame the Democrats in the General Assembly for the vote. That person is probably the same type of person who blames President Obama for Republican obstruction. And he, and those like him, need some education on how long and involved a process politics and change is. If you are getting into politics for instant gratification and neverending victories, you will be bitterly disappointed.
Yesterday, the defeat of the Senate Bill 40, which would have repealed the death penalty, by an official vote of 16-23-2, was not a defeat. It was a victory when you look at change and politics from a longer view, or a higher altitude. Over the course of three years, we went from no bill for repeal even being considered, to having it be introduced, pass through the Senate, and die in the House Judiciary Committee, to having it pass the Senate again, and get debated and voted on on the House floor.
Yesterday was a step forward. To be sure, the vast majority of the Democratic caucus voted for the repeal of the death penalty. Step back and think about that for a second, while looking at this vote roster (I have excluded the Republicans voting no, because they are irrelevant to this conversation, well, are irrelevant to most things really).
Representative Mike Ramone, Charter School Lobbyist
Mr. Ramone needs to read the regs pertaining to per student funding in public education. When a student moves from a District school to a Charter school, the tax money collected by the original district for spending on that student goes with the student to the charter. There is no fiscal “responsibility” borne by the Charter, the sending District is paying that child’s per-student expense. If Mr. Ramone doesn’t believe that, I have a $21 million charter bill Christina School District is paying this year for him to look at. Email me, Rep Ramone: brianstephan@gmail.com and I can help you understand how public schools are funded in this state.
BREAKING: Death Penalty Repeal Fails, 16-23-2
Senate Bill 40, which eliminates the Death Penalty in Delaware going forward (those already convicted of first degree murder and sentenced to death will not have their sentences reduced), finds itself on the House floor today for debate and perhaps a vote. The Bill has had a long and winding road to get today. This is the second session of the General Assembly in which a death penalty bill has been considered. This time, like the last time, the Senate passed the bill by the slimmest of margins, 11-9. Last time, the bill was buried in Rebecca Walker’s House Judiciary Committee. This time, the bill was actually debated in Larry Mitchell’s House Judiciary Committee. But last spring, the bill failed to clear the committee.
But all hope was not lost. Rep. Sean Lynn openly stated on multiple occasions that he would petition the bill out of committee so that it could be considered on the floor of the House. To do that he would need the votes of a majority of the House. But it turned out was not necessary, as House Speaker Schwartzkopf and Rep. Mitchell agreed to release the bill and place it on the agenda for debate.
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