Tuesday Open Thread [9.15.2015]

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–CLINTON v. GOP—MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist:

Clinton 53, Trump 40
Clinton 49, Bush 45
Clinton 50, Rubio 44
Clinton 52, Cruz 41

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–BIDENv. GOP—MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist:

Biden 56, Trump 38
Biden 50, Bush 42
Biden 50, Rubio 42
Biden 54, Cruz 39

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—CBS News/NYT: Trump 27, Carson 23, Bush 6, Cruz 5, Rubio 6, Huckabee 6, Fiorina 4, Walker 2, Kasich 3, Paul 3, Christie 1, Santorum 1, Perry 1, Jindal 0, Graham 0

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—ABC/Wash Post: Trump 33, Carson 20, Bush 8, Cruz 7, Rubio 7, Huckabee 3, Fiorina 2, Walker 2, Kasich 3, Paul 5, Christie 1, Santorum 1, Perry 1, Jindal 1, Graham 0

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Monmouth: Trump 28, Carson 17, Kasich 11, Fiorina 7, Bush 7, Cruz 8, Paul 4, Walker 2, Rubio 4, Christie 2, Huckabee 1, Graham 1, Pataki 1, Santorum 1, Jindal 0

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—ABC/Wash Post: Clinton 42, Sanders 24, Biden 21, O’Malley 2, Webb 1, Chafee 1

IOWA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—CBS News/YouGov: Sanders 43, Clinton 33, Biden 10, O’Malley 5, Webb 1, Chafee 1

IOWA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—CBS/YouGov: Trump 29, Carson 25, Cruz 10, Walker 5, Fiorina 4, Rubio 6, Bush 3, Huckabee 4, Paul 2, Kasich 2, Jindal 2, Santorum 3, Christie 1, Perry 0, Graham 0

NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—CBS News/YouGov: Sanders 52, Clinton 30, Biden 9, Webb 0, O’Malley 1, Chafee 0

NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—CBS/YouGov: Trump 40, Carson 12, Kasich 9, Fiorina 8, Bush 6, Cruz 5, Paul 6, Walker 3, Rubio 2, Christie 2, Huckabee 1, Graham 0, Pataki 0, Santorum 0, Jindal 0 Trump +28

SOUTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—CBS News/YouGov: Clinton 46, Biden 22, Sanders 23, Webb 1, O’Malley 0, Chafee 0

SOUTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—CBS/YouGov: Trump 36, Carson 21, Bush 5, Cruz 6, Graham 5, Huckabee 3, Walker 3, Fiorina 3, Rubio 3, Kasich 4, Christie 2, Paul 1, Jindal 1, Perry 0

CALIFORNIA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—LA Times/USC: Trump 24, Carson 18, Bush 6, Cruz 6, Fiorina 5, Rubio 5, Walker 2, Huckabee 2, Kasich 2, Paul 2, Christie 1, Santorum 1

CALIFORNIA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—LA Times/USC: Clinton 39, Sanders 23, Biden 11, O’Malley 1, Webb 1, Chafee 0

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Gravis Marketing: Trump 34, Carson 22, Bush 15, Rubio 5, Fiorina 6, Cruz 6, Kasich 5, Huckabee 2, Walker 1, Paul 0, Jindal 1, Christie 0, Perry 1, Santorum 1

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—Gravis Marketing: Clinton 42, Biden 21, Sanders 13, O’Malley 2, Chafee 0, Webb 1

Trump has not only plateaued, but his numbers are falling, and Carson is rising. Perhaps the media should take notice.

“Democrats are laying the groundwork for an ambitious reorganization of their struggling network of “super PACs” that would exploit the loopholes and legal gray areas that Republicans have already used to raise hundreds of millions of dollars for the 2016 campaign through such groups,” the New York Times reports.

“The plans, laid out by the party’s top election lawyers in an emergency request filed with the Federal Election Commission on Friday, would pave the way for the creation of a host of new super PACs tailored to individual House and Senate candidates.”

That is fine by me. Standing for campaign finance reform and a constitutional amendment to reverse Citizens United does not mean you unilaterally disarm in the meantime. And if Lawrence Lessig or any other purist has a problem with that, they know where to go.

Washington Post: “When Congress returned to work Sept. 8, it faced a nearly unprecedented number of deadlines and political dramas. The government needs to be funded by Sept. 30, but Congress is way behind in passing the series of spending bills necessary to pass a full budget. Instead, lawmakers will probably try to pass a short-term budget extension that basically keeps spending levels the same as last year and keeps the government open.”

“Even that’s going to be tough. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are using the budget process to push their ideological agendas on everything from abortion to military spending to international nuclear deals. And there’s a presidential campaign going on… Those odds have only increased after Congress’s first week back. Here are four congressional budget analysts’ predictions on how likely it is that the government will shut down at least for a few days. We’ll start with the most conservative estimate — which is still ‘well over 50 percent.’”

I am personally rooting for a shutdown at this point. Embrace the apocalypse.

I will give credit where credit is due, Bernie Sanders did good yesterday. He “took his message of confronting inequality to unfamiliar ground on Monday at Liberty University, a leading evangelical Christian college, where he sought to build what he called ‘common ground’ with students, beginning with the foundations of Christianity itself: the Bible,” the New York Times reports.

Said Sanders: “I am far, far from a perfect human being, but I am motivated by a vision which exists in all of the great religions — in Christianity, in Judaism, in Islam, Buddhism and other religions — and which is so beautifully and clearly stated in Matthew 7:12. And it states: ‘So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the law and the prophets.’ That is the golden rule. Do to others what you would have them do to you.”

He added: “It is not very complicated.”

Take some time and watch it, including the Q&A afterwards. I’ve earned some new respect for him. I am still of the opinion that he cannot possibly win a general election (and if you don’t have the same doubts or concerns at the very least, you are being way too unrealistic), and I have my issues with him, but now I am curious to see him in the debates now. But don’t worry, I am still a Clinton supporter.

A diarist at Daily Kos offers an interesting thought:

I’ve seen people saying that the majority of Liberty University remained unchanged in their opinions, and are unlikely to be swayed over by Bernie attempting to mold consensus. When the event was announced, many people said that he was unlikely to win over many people at the school.

But that was never the point.

He was giving us a preview of how he would approach leadership as President of the United States. It was a moment where presented himself as reasonable and open to molding consensus, but he was firm in both his principles and his framing.

The intended audience wasn’t Liberty University. It was us.

Rick Klein: “If the first debate was all about Donald Trump, the second debate figures to be about the anti-Trump. The Republican race has not so much changed as it has solidified over the past six weeks, erasing any doubt about Trump’s front-running status. But now, Trump will have a different on-stage neighbor – Dr. Ben Carson – and a whole stage full of rivals who need to move to Plan B when it comes to handling the man in the middle. Trump is about to see more incoming fire than even he (maybe) is capable of effectively returning. The Club for Growth is announcing its anti-Trump media campaign on Tuesday, and Wednesday night is primed to become a Trump pile-on. It brings a new set of dynamics to the race – or, at least, the hope of that when it comes to the 15 candidates not named Trump.”

First Read: “There’s a good chance there will be two different debates going on at the main GOP debate in California tomorrow night. The first sub-debate is among the outsiders Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina, who all need momentum to continue feeding off the 2016 beast (given that they don’t have infrastructure and establishment support). Yes, Trump is likely to be the center of attention again, but Carson and Fiorina have extra pressure to deliver. After all, when you’re an outsider and have the momentum, you can’t afford to lose it. And if you lose it, you usually don’t get it back.”

“The second sub-debate is among the insider/establishment Republicans — Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, even John Kasich. Bush and Walker, in particular, are fighting to regain momentum (see the NYT/CBS poll). Don’t be surprised if some of these insiders decide to target Jeb instead of Trump. Why? Going after Jeb (or the last name Bush) might be an easier path to prove your conservative bona fides than standing toe-to-toe with The Donald.”

President Obama slapped Ben Carson down hard yesterday after Carson proposed that “liberal” colleges (i.e. colleges that teach things that radical conservatives don’t believe in, like climate change and Keynesian economics) should be defunded.

Unsurprisingly, Obama didn’t like it much. “I have no idea what that means, and I suspect he doesn’t either,” he said, then continued: “The idea that you’d have somebody in government making a decision about what you should think ahead of time or what you should be taught, and if it’s not the right thought, or idea, or perspective or philosophy, that person would be — they wouldn’t get funding, runs contrary to everything we believe about education,” he said. “That might work in the Soviet Union, but that doesn’t work here. That’s not who we are.”

After that criticism, he went on to give his opinion about what’s been called the “new political correctness” on college campuses:

It’s not just sometimes folks who are mad that colleges are too liberal that have a problem. Sometimes there are folks on college campuses who are liberal, and maybe even agree with me on a bunch of issues, who sometimes aren’t listening to the other side, and that’s a problem too. I’ve heard some college campuses where they don’t want to have a guest speaker who is too conservative or they don’t want to read a book if it has language that is offensive to African-Americans or somehow sends a demeaning signal towards women. I gotta tell you, I don’t agree with that either. I don’t agree that you, when you become students at colleges, have to be coddled and protected from different points of view. I think you should be able to — anybody who comes to speak to you and you disagree with, you should have an argument with ‘em. But you shouldn’t silence them by saying, “You can’t come because I’m too sensitive to hear what you have to say.” That’s not the way we learn either.

God, I’m going to miss Obama. I hope he is very active as a hammer in the 16 campaign.

Mark Halperin on whether Donald Trump can be stopped (of course he can): “In the modern era, the Republican nomination has been won by the combatant who is best at playing a game of kill-or-be-killed. In the end, becoming the standard bearer has not been about the daily polls, the staff hires, the policy speeches, the fundraising, the cattle calls, the promised agenda. It’s been about having the skill and confidence to stamp out anyone who threatens you…”

“So far, [Trump] has proven to be largely immune from attack, and also a master killer himself, with a unique political arsenal…. He simply uses Instagram, Twitter, and his virtually unlimited access to the news media to unsheathe his sharp tongue…. And Trump can shift to kill mode without strain or hesitation.”