Monday Open Thread [7.13.15]

E.J. Dionne Jr. says that Hillary Clinton is making an ecomomic bet:

You can be certain that Donald Trump will not allow himself to be ignored. But the coming week could mark the beginning of a genuinely substantive debate between Republicans and Democrats over how to define the nation’s economic problems and relieve its economic anxieties.

Clinton is making a major bid on Monday to shape the conversation with an economic speech in New York that will be followed over the next two months with rollouts of specific proposals in nearly a dozen policy areas. Her campaign knows that she still has work to do on her personal image. But like her husband two decades ago, she is betting that when the majority of voters tune in to the election next year, they will be focused primarily on their household balance sheets.

New York Times: “Six weeks after the death of his elder son, Mr. Biden has thrown himself back into his work, meeting with foreign leaders, giving speeches and even cheering on the women’s national soccer team in its victory over Japan in the World Cup. Unsurprisingly, in the shadow of tragedy, he is not his typically ebullient self. But by all accounts he is feeling his way forward and trying to figure out what comes next.”

“Even without the heartbreak of loss, this was bound to be a crossroads moment for a vice president who has spent four decades in Washington only to find an uncertain path ahead. He has not ruled out running for president again, and some friends are nudging him to, even if the political math does not seem to favor it.”

Politico: “We like to think that presidential elections are dramatic fall campaigns pitting party against party, but the truth is that the most decisive moments often occur long before the general election kicks off. If history is any guide, the outcome of next year’s presidential campaign will likely be determined before the Republican Party has even selected their nominee. That uncomfortable fact means that the longer and more divisive the Republican primary, the less likely the party will be to win back the White House in 2016.”

“In eight out of the last nine presidential elections these decisive periods of time can all be traced back to the run up to the general election—not the fall campaign. With the exception of the 2000 election—which was an outlier on every front—voters locked in their attitudes about the direction of the country, the state of their own well-being and the presidential candidates—and their political party—prior to the start of the general election.”

The Washington Post’s Robert Costa had a bizzare interview with renowned bankruptcy and divorce expert Donald Trump on his private plane following his seventy-minute rant of a speech in Phoenix during which he used the Nixonian phrase “the Silent Majority.” Costa was wondering if Trump was concerned that he had borrowed the phrase from a disgraced President. Trump replied:

Nah. Nobody remembers that. Oh, is that why people stopped using [the phrase]? Maybe. Nobody thinks of Nixon. I don’t think of Nixon when I think of the silent majority. The silent majority today, they’re going to vote for Trump. Remember, many Republicans didn’t vote for Mitt Romney. He didn’t inspire people. They’re going to vote for me.

Actually, Mr. Trump, Republicans and conservatives did come out to vote for Mr. Romney. The reason why you lost is because Democrats and Independent also showed up. And the reason you Republicans were so surprised on election night that year is because you thought the turnout would be closer to 2010 percentages, and not 2008 percentages. Yes, the turnout would be higher, but the percentage breakdown between Democrats and Republicans and Independents would be the same.

You were wrong. And then you cried. And we smiled. Some of us laughed and pointed.

Politico: “Most other candidates would have folded. Some might have doubled down. On Saturday, Donald Trump tripled down.”

First Read: “It’s bad, bad news for Rick Perry that his campaign raised just $1.07 million in the quarter — in fact, compare that with the $17 million his 2012 campaign raked in during its first quarter. What’s striking is that poor fundraising performance from Perry comes as he’s definitely improved as a candidate.”

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Reuters-Ipsos: Bush 16.1, Trump 15.8, Christie 9.5, Paul 8.1, Carson 7.2, Walker 5.8,

New York Times: “While Mr. Walker is ahead in some opinion polls, including for Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, a series of early gaffes alarmed party leaders and donors and led Mr. Walker to begin several months of policy tutorials. The collective hope is that Mr. Walker can avoid what Mr. Goeas and other advisers describe as Sarah Palin’s problem — becoming a candidate who is initially popular among Republicans, like the 2008 vice-presidential nominee, but loses luster because of missteps as the campaign goes on.”

“Mr. Walker is now emerging from his crash course with the aim of reassuring activists and contributors, who have given relatively modest amounts to his political operation so far, that he will no longer sow doubts about himself with comments like comparing pro-union protesters to Islamic State terrorists, refusing to answer a question about evolution or saying he does not know if President Obama is a Christian or if he loves America.”

David Atkins at the Washington Monthly says this 2016 Republican primary has an eerily familiar feeling to that of the 2012 race, where we have an obvious establishment candidate that the party base is not warm about.

Republican primaries are increasingly showing a pattern of base discontent with the leading candidate and flirtations with insurgent campaigns, only to fall in line behind the establishment. In 2012 Republicans went through a sequential series of insurgent frontrunners before settling on Mitt Romney. This year feels similar. Jeb Bush will likely be the boring dependable man that GOP voters ultimately marry, but they’re likely to date a number of more exciting alternatives first. Trump is only the latest and most exciting, but he probably won’t be the last.

That itself is an interesting window into the Republican psyche. Realistically, Jeb Bush isn’t exactly a “safe” candidate. The Bush brand is almost irredeemably marred by his brother’s disastrous stint in the Oval Office, Jeb himself hasn’t actually held public office in many years, and his record on the campaign trail hasn’t exactly been gaffe free. Far from it: in saying that Americans need to work longer hours, Bush may already have had his “47 percent” or “I like being able to fire people” moment.

Donald Trump is certainly more exciting and more volatile. Rand Paul would be another interesting choice; Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina would be symbolic. But at least in theory, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker would be more dependable traditional choices than Jeb Bush. But they still lag far behind, with Scott Walker in particular suffering from concerns that he might not be anti-immigrant enough.