Tuesday Open Thread [6.30.15]
We have a lot of polling information that I collected over the last 10 days while I was doing battle with man-eating sharks in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, so here goes:
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Fox News: Bush 15, Trump 11, Carson 10, Paul 9, Walker 9, Rubio 8, Huckabee 6, Cruz 4, Fiorina 3, Santorum 3, Christie 2, Jindal 2, Kasich 2, Perry 2, Graham 1, Pataki 1
“The bad news for Trump is that only 29% of GOP primary voters consider him a serious candidate. More than twice that many — 64% — think he’s a side show.”
Given Fox’s top 10 rule, the candidates who get in the debate are: Bush, Trump, Carson, Paul, Walker, Rubio, Huckabee, Cruz, Fiorina, and Santorum. Christie and Kasich, two potentially establishment savior candidates, are crowded out by the crazy.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–Fox News: Clinton 61, Sanders 15, Biden 11, Cuomo 3, Webb 2, O’Malley 1, Chafee 0.
Andrew Cuomo is not running, he has said so, so Fox should probably stop polling him. Biden, while not a candidate, may still run, so I can understand his inclusion. Same goes for Webb.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–Fox News:
Clinton 51, Trump 34
Clinton 48, Romney 42
Clinton 48, Cruz 42
Clinton 47, Walker 41
Clinton 45, Fiorina 39
Clinton 46, Carson 41
Clinton 46, Paul 42
Clinton 45, Rubio 44
Clinton 43, Bush 43
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–WMUR/CNN Granite State: Clinton 43, Sanders 35, Biden 8, O’Malley 2, Webb 1, Chafee 0
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–WMUR/CNN Granite State: Bush 16, Trump 11, Paul 9, Walker 8, Rubio 6, Fiorina 6, Carson 5, Christie 5, Perry 4, Cruz 3, Huckabee 2, Kasich 1, Pataki 1, Graham 1.
ILLINOIS–SENATE–Ogden & Fry: Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D) 44, Sen. Mark Kirk (R) 27.
PENNSYLVANIA–SENATE–Franklin & Marshall: Sen. Pat Toomey (R) 35, Joe Sestak (D) 31.
KENTUCKY–GOVERNOR–Public Policy Polling: Matt Bevin (R) 38, Jack Conway (D) 35.
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Suffolk University: Bush 14, Trump 11, Walker 8, Rubio 7, Carson 6, Christie 5.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL–CNN/ORC: 50% approve of President Obama’s job performance, while 47% disapprove. That is great news for Hillary Clinton, for so long as the President’s job performance numbers are in the mid to high 40s, yet alone 50s, she will benefit.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL–NBC/Wall Street Journal: 48% approve of President Obama’s job performance, 48% disapprove.
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–NBC/Wall Street Journal: Bush 22, Walker 17, Rubio 11, Huckabee 9, Paul 7, Perry 5, Cruz 4, Christie 4, Fiorina 2, Trump0 1, Graham 1, Kasich 1
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–NBC/Wall Street Journal: Clinton 75, Sanders 15, Webb 4, O’Malley 2, Chafee 0
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–NBC/Wall Street Journal:
Clinton 48, Bush 40
Clinton 50, Rubio 40
Clinton 51, Walker 37
First Read on the very same NBC/WSJ poll: “Here’s another important dynamic to understand: Hillary Clinton outperforms a generic Democratic presidential candidate. While she leads Bush/Rubio/Walker between 8-14 points, a generic Democratic presidential candidate barely beats a GOP generic candidate, 39%-36%. And the difference comes from the key Democratic-leaning demographic groups. A generic Democrat has a 16-point lead among those 18-34 (46%-30%), but Hillary’s average lead over Jeb and Rubio here is 29 points (58%-29%). A generic Democrat has a 62-point lead among African Americans (69%-7%), but Hillary’s lead against Bush/Rubio here is 87 points (91%-4%). And a generic Democratic candidate holds a 9-point lead among Latinos (40%-31%), but Hillary’s average here against Jeb/Rubio is 42 points (65%-23%).”
TEXAS–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Texas Tribune: Cruz 20, Perry 12, Walker 10, Rubio 8, Bush 7, Carson 6, Paul 6, Huckabee 5
TEXAS–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–Texas Tribune: Clinton 53, Sanders 15, Biden 8, Warren 8
FLORIDA–SENATE–Quinnipiac: Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) 40, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R) 28; Murphy (D) 39, Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) 31; Rep. Alan Grayson (D) 37, Lopez-Cantera (R) 31; Grayson (D) 38, DeSantis (R) 31.
OHIO–SENATE–Quinnipiac: Fmr. Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 46, Sen. Rob Portman (R) 40.
PENNSYLVANIA–SENATE–Quinnipiac: Sen. Pat Toomey (R) 47, Joe Sestak 36; Toomey (R) 52, Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski (D) 28
Trump has risen to 2nd based on calling Mexicans rapists and drug dealers. That pretty much tells you where GOP primary voters are on the pressing issues of the day.
The pollsters are not asking the right as questions. Keep in mind, we have a long time until election 16, 16 months. And even California Closets does not have enough space in all the closets they make nationally to keep all the clinton’s skeletons hidden for that long. The big difference between nixon erasing tapes, and hillary destroying emails, is that like my father used to say, it takes two to tango. The person’s email on the other end of hillary’s emails, did not necessarily get deleted. And, if over the next 16 months, bill or hillary mess up, and dont keep all the right people happy, those unwanted emails very likely are going to keep surfacing, until finally even the strongest clinton supporters are going to drop her like a hot potatoe.
Old emails? Is that all you’ve got, Rusty? These are somehow going to be considered important skeletons???
Oh… And I love your Dan Quayle impersonation there… Trying to look really smart???
I think we all need to be somewhat lenient on the typos and syntax errors. It is only a blog comment section… but the Dan Quayle one is epic. It’s like a Freudian slip of the keyboard and it’s a great tell in this case.
“Who’s a dimwitted, milquetoast, country club Republican…” Oh, I know who.
I would rather have Bernie Sanders but with all of her faults, Clinton’s policies and competence is light years ahead of the GOP clown car