Thursday Open Thread [6.18.15]

Is Donald Trump a serious candidate for the nomination? FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten says no, and has a simple rationale for that judgment:

Trump is the first candidate in modern presidential primary history to begin the campaign with a majority of his own party disliking him. A whopping 57 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to an average of the three most recent polls. That beats former record holder Pat Buchanan, who had a 43 percent unfavorable rating at this point in the 2000 election cycle. Buchanan, of course, ended up running as an independent.

To put that in graphical terms:

But he is a serious threat to the other candidates, because he will get in the debates. Right now in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, Trump’s running ninth, and has twice the popular support mustered by Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who is a true dark horse serious candidate.

And once on the debate stage, he will force his party to the right on immigration and other issues.

While Clinton is embracing Obama’s policies while also running on change herself (and I am not talking about the woman president angle. From the Washington Post:

“It has long been said that voters use presidential elections to correct perceived deficiencies in the incumbent. Asking for continuity of power while nevertheless advocating changes, Clinton appears eager to contrast herself with Obama in ways that are both subtle and direct.”

“If Obama spoke of transformation, Clinton is running as a workaday problem solver with a lengthy to-do list and the policies to match — an incrementalist who will measure progress in small changes as much as grand achievements. If the Obama who defeated her eight years ago was the candidate of soaring rhetoric, of hope and inspiration, Clinton is running as a dogged and determined fighter at a time when many voters are looking for evidence of achievable results.”

“If Obama is faulted for having failed to develop relationships with Republicans — or even Democrats, as Friday’s trade vote in the House reminded — Clinton will be presented as someone whose approach is not that of a president often described as distant from other elected officials.”

New York Times: “Republicans who have been hoping that the Supreme Court will upend President Obama’s health care law are now confronting an urgent and uncomfortable question: What if they win?”

“Republicans in Congress would face an enormously complicated challenge to fashion an alternative, and they fear the fallout could lead to election losses if millions of Americans abruptly found themselves without health insurance.”

“Senior Republicans who are worried they’ll be blamed for killing health insurance for millions of Americans have been busy assembling a range of options if the Supreme Court strikes down the law’s subsidies in 34 states,” Politico reports.

“But the GOP senators running for president — starting but not ending with firebrand Ted Cruz — threaten to stymie their leaders’ carefully hatched plans. Any whiff that the GOP’s Plan B is a continuation of Obamacare is bound to spark furious protests from the conservative base, putting pressure on the presidential hopefuls to respond. Cruz, for one, would press for a wholesale repeal of the law — or to allow states to opt out of Obamacare — if the high court provides the opening.”

A new Reuters/Iposos poll finds Jeb Bush “starts his presidential bid with strong name recognition but only lukewarm support from the Republican moderates whose backing he will need to capture his party’s nomination.”

First Read: “Bush’s campaign kickoff event yesterday was a reminder that no one should dismiss his potential to win the GOP presidential nomination — it was enthusiastic, diverse, and perhaps the best-executed announcement to date in either party. But Jeb’s biggest challenge from now until the first Republican contests is convincing his party that he could win a straight “Clinton-vs.-Bush” contest. Right now, the polling doesn’t bear that out: Recent surveys (like CNN’s and Quinnipiac’s) show other Republicans performing better head-to-head against Hillary than Jeb does. The perception among some conservative opinion leaders doesn’t bear it out, either.”

First Read: “We’ve had our doubts that Trump would ever get to this point, simply due to the requirement for actual presidential candidates to release their financial information. But the Washington Post reports that Trump will release a two-page summary showing assets of about $9 billion. Yet a little caveat here: This two-page summary will not be the actual financial-disclosure report that candidates are supposed to file to the Federal Election Commission within 30 days of becoming a candidate. (Trump could theoretically delay releasing this information for 120 days from today — by getting two 45-day extensions. And the penalty for submitting false information here is a no more than a year in jail or a $50,000 fine.) But you can’t take Trump’s candidacy seriously until he fills out the government financial-disclosure form.”

“Remember, we found out about Hillary’s paid speeches and Rubio’s liquidated IRA from their financial disclosures. They didn’t submit a one- or two-page summary. So if Trump is only submitting this summary, it actually is proof he isn’t that serious about this — it’s about trying to get into the debates but keeping up appearances in time for him to start a new season of The Apprentice in January. That said, he is one helluva promoter and he will get plenty of folks to bite as we will see over the next 48 hours.”

New York Times: “Like many Republicans, Mr. Bush and Mr. Rubio have questioned or denied the established science of human-caused climate change, and have harshly criticized policies designed to tax or regulate the burning of fossil fuels. Both of their campaigns have courted influential and deep-pocketed donors, such as the billionaire brothers Charles G. and David H. Koch, who vehemently oppose such climate policies.”

“But the papal encyclical could put Catholics who question that established climate science in a tough position, particularly in a year in which at least five Catholics may run for the Republican presidential nomination. Besides Mr. Bush, Mr. Rubio and Rick Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania who has also declared his candidacy, the field could include Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.”

Paul Waldman: “It’s tempting to feel a little sorry for the Republican Party. Here they were, trying to have a perfectly civil and sober primary campaign to determine their candidate for the presidency, when along comes Donald Trump.”

“Here’s the problem, though: Donald Trump is the essence of contemporary Republicanism. It’s a distilled essence, boiled down to a viscous and sour consistency. But if you want to know what Republicans believe and who they are, you don’t need to look much further. He’s a walking caricature, but it’s a caricature created from everything Republicans believe.”