Monday Open Thread [5.11.15]

KENTUCKY–GOVERNOR–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Public Policy Polling: James Comer (R) 28, Hal Heiner (R) 27, Matt Bevin (R) 25.

You remember Matt Bevin, the tea party guy who challenged Mitch McConnell in 2014. He looked to be out of the running with two better known and more established candidates in Comer and Heiner running. “But now, days before the May 19 primary, a dramatic turn of events—largely surrounding dueling allegations of domestic violence and accessory to slander between Bevin’s two primary rivals—have left the tea-party-aligned Bevin with a chance at victory.”

The Republican winner would face off with Attorney General Jack Conway (D), with the Democrat being favored in that race.

First Read: “There are at least four reasons why the GOP candidates are focused so heavily on foreign affairs — more so than at this time in the 2012 presidential cycle. One, the economy has improved (223,000 jobs were created last month, and Obama’s economic handling is up to 49% in the latest NBC/WSJ poll), while the deficit has decreased. Two, there’s the rise of ISIS. Three, there’s the Iran deal that the Obama administration is racing to finalize by next month. And four, there’s the GOP recognition that focusing on foreign policy is maybe the best way to go after Hillary Clinton’s record as secretary of state.”

The first is the most important reason. If this election is about the economy, it will be a Clinton landslide.

NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll: Paul 12, Walker 12, Bush 11, Rubio 11, Trump 8, Christie 7, Cruz 6, Carson 5, Huckabee 4, Fiorina 3

The NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll conducted last week found that more Americans would be enthusiastic or comfortable with having a gay President than they would having an evangelical Christian as President.

Regarding a gay President, 13% would be enthusiastic and 48% would be comfortable, while 18% would have some reservations and 19% would be very uncomfortable.

Regarding an Evangelical Christian President, 12% would be enthusiastic and 40% would be comfortable, while 24% would have some reservations and 20% would be very uncomfortable.

Jeff Greenfield: “Up to now, Clinton’s potential rivals have been taking the traditional route of arguing that she does not truly reflect the Democratic base on issues like income inequality and corporate regulation. Now, they have been handed a much more potent argument: that the financial behavior of the Clintons demonstrates that they identify with the one per cent—or one-tenth of one per cent—and that their conduct will be as big a liability to Hillary Clinton as Mitt Romney’s business career and tax returns were to him in 2012.”

“But, as with nitroglycerin, a potent substance can also be highly dangerous. Bill Clinton is the most admired man in America; and among Democrats, his approval rating is stratospheric. Up to now, there has been no significant unhappiness within her party at the prospect of a Hillary Clinton nomination… Moreover, nothing is more likely to rally Democrats around Clinton than the assaults from across the political divide.”