Saturday Open Thread [5.9.15]

Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post has posted in regular (I think it’s either monthly or weekly) ranking of Republican Presidential contenders, and his rankings leave a lot to be desired:

10. Rick Perry: On paper, the outgoing Texas governor looks like a compelling candidate. But, that “on paper” argument didn’t work so well for Perry in the 2012 race. By all accounts he is more on top of things in this race — and his balky back is in better shape — but polling would suggest that Perry might not get a second chance to make a first impression. (Previous ranking: 10)

He is no longer an outgoing Governor. He has gone. He is a former Governor. To say outgoing presumes he is still in office but leaving. Sorry, an example of semantic laziness that I tend to hate. Anyway, where has Rick Perry gone to? I see he is attending certain events with his glasses, but I do not see him making any moves towards a campaign.

9. Bobby Jindal: The Louisiana governor feels like the “me too” candidate in the field. He’s right there — always — advocating for conservatives to stand on principle but never really getting any credit for it. Take the religious freedom fight in Indiana. Jindal was everywhere supporting the need for just those sorts of laws to protect Christians from discrimination. But he got roughly zero credit for it. Jindal keeps trying to break through. And to date, he’s failed. (Previous ranking: 9)

If Jindal’s record in Louisiana was not god awful, I would say that this lack of acknowledgment on the part of the Republican base has to be racist, given Jindal’s Indian heritage. But perhaps they think his failed record at home is not the best exemplar of conservative policies to present to the American people.

8. Chris Christie: I contemplated putting Christie at No. 10 or dropping him from the line entirely given not only how poorly he polls in early states but also because of how many Republicans tell national pollsters they simply can’t or won’t vote for him. But I not only left Christie on our rankings but put him ahead of two other candidates because of his fundraising capacity and natural ability as a candidate. Christie might never get to the point in the race where those things matter, but he is likely to have enough of both to make his mark if it does. (Previous ranking: 7)

Chris Christie will not run for President. There, I said it. He is Jeb Bush without the money. He is hated by the base and his star power is gone. Thus, without the money, he cannot kid himself.

7. John Kasich: The Ohio governor sure seems like he’s moving toward the race. He’s going to places like New Hampshire and talking about what his party and the country need to do. You don’t do that sort of stuff unless you fancy yourself a presidential candidate. And yet, he refuses to set any sort of timeline on when he’ll decide even as the field fills up with credible candidates. Kasich has always been a different sort of political cat, and he’s proving it — yet again — with his extended contemplation of the race. (Previous ranking: 6)

Has God answered John? Last I heard he was waiting on instructions from the Almighty as to whether to make the race.

6. Ted Cruz: Cruz made a mistake recently when he left Washington before the final confirmation vote on Loretta Lynch as Attorney General in order to make a fundraiser in Texas. Why? Because Cruz’s image is built on being a sort of un-politician — the sort who doesn’t do things like miss votes to go to fundraisers. Does anyone in Iowa make their mind up about Cruz based on this missed vote? No way. But the more he looks just like the other politicians, the worse his chances of being the nominee become. (Previous ranking: 5)

My predicted nominee. He should be much higher. He is McCarthyite and Goldwater reborn, and he is precisely what the base is looking for, saying what the base wants to hear. Iowa will be a race between Walker and Cruz alone.

5. Rand Paul: Paul might have picked the wrong election cycle to put his non-interventionist foreign policy views forward as he runs for president. As I wrote earlier this week, national security and terrorism now rank No. 1 on a list of issues that Republican voters believe are most important for the country to address. That represents a major change from just a few years ago when national security and terrorism concerns ranked in the middle of the pack among GOP voters and war-weariness was the prevailing sentiment. The increased concern about our role in the world coupled with a new/old hawkishness could make things very difficult for Paul. (Previous ranking: 4)

It is hard to read Paul. He has a fanatic following borrowed from his father, that is still following him despite past departures from isolationism. For now, I keep him higher than this.

4. Mike Huckabee: The former Arkansas governor leaps up four spots from the last time we did these rankings for a simple reason: He’s actually running. After Huck’s flirtation with the 2012 race, I was in I’ll-believe-it-when-I-see-it mode, but he took the leap earlier this week with a very well-crafted (and well-delivered) speech. Huckabee has considerable potential as a presidential candidate, particularly in a Republican electorate pining for a populist warrior. But — and this is the eternal question with Huck — can he raise the money to take advantage of his significant gifts? The jury is out. (Previous ranking: 8)

Huckabee should be lower than this. He will not have the money because of his populism pitch and his history of raising taxes in Arkansas.

3. Scott Walker: Walker seems to have gone a bit incognito — at least at the national level — since earlier this spring when he made a few amateur mistakes that robbed him of some part of the considerable momentum he was building in the race. But the Wisconsin governor remains well-positioned as a top-tier candidate; he has a conservative record as governor, he can raise the money, and he fits the profile (Midwestern, swing-state governor) that Republicans are likely to be looking for. (Previous ranking: 2)

Walker will be a top contender. I have him No. 1 at the moment. If you are the Koch candidate, you will be in it till the end.

2. Marco Rubio: The Florida senator is, without question, the momentum candidate at the moment. He got a major boost from a well-executed campaign rollout last month, and his speaking ability and the figure he cuts — young, Hispanic, charismatic — have combined to catapult him into the top tier. Anyone who has watched politics for more than a few days knows that Rubio’s current rise will slow and be followed, inevitably, by a dip. But he has soared higher already than many people thought he might, so even some slippage will keep him in the top tier. (Previous ranking: 3)

I don’t get the media hype for Rubio…. what well executed campaign rollout, you mean the one that was stomped all over by Hillary? LOL He is too green and wishy washy.

1. Jeb Bush: No one will come close to raising the sort of money that Jeb will. His Right to Rise super PAC is rumored to have raised $100 million through the end of May — an eye-popping total even to jaded political watchers like us. That money alone won’t win him the nomination, but it will allow him to weather a poor performance (or two). Bush has problems with the base — on immigration and Common Core — but the latest NBC-WSJ poll had good news for him: The number of Republicans who said they definitely wouldn’t vote for him is declining. (Previous ranking: 1)

He won’t win a state. You heard it here first.

My rankings:

1. Scott Walker
2. Ted Cruz
3. Rand Paul
4. Marco Rubio
5. John Kasich
6. Mike Huckabee
7. Jeb Bush
8. Rick Santorum
9. Rick Perry
10. Ben Carson

Ben Carson has more of a chance to be the nominee than Bobby Jindal, whose record in Louisiana is just absolutely abyssmal, or Chris Christie. So I dropped those two off the Cizzilla list and added Rick Santorum and Carson. In my mind there are 7 legitimate contenders, and I have listed them in order above. And Bush is only legitimate because he will have money.