Your Predictions

Filed in National by on October 31, 2014

El Som and I have posted our predictions. And we vary wildly from each other on a few key races. Where do our beloved readers and commenters stand? If you want, please post your predictions below in the comments from the following races. The House and Senate races I selected are the ones that are most competitive.

US Senator–Coons v. Wade
US Rep–Carney v. Izzo
Treasurer–Barney v. Simpler
AG–Denn v. Kittila
Auditor–Mayrack v. Wagner
6th SD–Snyder-Hall v. Lopez
10th SD–Hall-Long v. Marino
17th SD–Bushweller v. Warfield
18th SD–Emory v. Simpson
21st SD–Venables v. Richardson
4th RD–Brady v. Keesler
9th RD–Hortiz v. Hensley
10th RD–Matthews v. Travis
11th RD–Newlin v. Spiegelman
15th RD–Longhurst v. Lenzini
20th RD–Mayor v. Smyk
22nd RD–Mackenzie v. Miro v. Newton
29th RD–Paradee v. Kramer
30th RD–Gallo v. Outten
31st RD–Lynn v. Chick
37th RD–Rappa v. Briggs King
41st RD–Atkins v. Collins

Again, here is the full chart of races with my predictions in the right column.

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Comments (64)

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  1. jason330 says:

    You’ve got Hensley in the 9th? I just got a mailer form him that makes me question his sanity. I’ll be posting on it later today (hopefully).

  2. jason330 says:

    I also got a mailer from Carl Smink who is still running for Senate as a write in, on the “The Constitution was ghost written by GOD” platform.

  3. Delaware Dem says:

    Hensley is a Republican, so he is by default already insane.

  4. Terry says:

    31 might be a surprise to you guys; it will all depends on who shows up at the polls. Lynn is a lawyer (strike 1) and has an anti-2A agenda (strike 2) in an area that has a large rural and Military population. Additionally, Chick is a Veteran in a area with a large Military population and he’s not part of the current Dover political machine (Lynn is a city councilman).

    If the “inner-city” population shows up, Lynn has the best shot – if not, Chick will carry the win.

  5. hmmm says:

    US Senator– Coons
    US Rep– Carney (duh)
    Treasurer– Simpler
    AG–Denn
    Auditor–Wagner probably squeaks by on name recognition
    6th SD–Lopez
    10th SD–Hall-Long
    17th SD–Bushweller
    18th SD–Simpson
    21st SD–Richardson
    4th RD–Keesler
    9th RD–Hensley
    10th RD–Matthews
    11th RD–Newlin
    15th RD–Longhurst
    20th RD–Mayor
    22nd RD–Miro
    29th RD–Paradee (has anyone seen the new signs? someone put up arrows pointing to Kramer’s misspelled signs saying “desperate campaign tactic”)
    30th RD–Outten
    31st RD–Lynn
    37th RD–Briggs King
    41st RD–Collins

  6. Delaware Dem says:

    I love the new Republican innuendo — “inner city population.”

  7. Terry says:

    Inner City population vs. rural population – but I’m sure that doesn’t fit your agenda.

    BTW, I’m an Unaffiliated centrist – but that fit into your narrow-view agenda either, does it?

  8. Delaware Dem says:

    LOL Unaffliliated centrist. Ok. You are an economic conservative.

  9. Susssex D says:

    I’m still waiting for someone — anyone — to articulate a basis for the prediction that Richardson will win the 21st. Maybe that’s just wishful thinking by some of our more progressive ideologists. However, I’ve got $1,000 that says Venables will not just win, but will win in a walk. Any takers?

  10. Terry says:

    Yes DD – that is a better description: Fiscally conservative, socially moderate centrist.

  11. Delaware Dem says:

    Are you pro-choice? If not, you are not socially moderate.

  12. Delaware Dem says:

    Sussex D– It is just the sense of the district. And this may be entirely wrong and you are free to say so. But the conventional wisdom was that the two year term Venables was elected to in 2012 was to be his last, and that he would retire. That is why Richardson ran in 2012 to get the name out there for when he would run in 2014 to succeed him. Then Venables changed his mind and ran again. Sometimes, when you overstay your welcome and refuse to retire, the voters do it for you. It happened to Bill Roth. Nancy Cook. So that is the basis for predicting that Venables will lose.

  13. Terry says:

    I do not believe that abortion should be used as birth control (or tax-payer funded), but I also do not believe that the government has the right to tell a person what they can do with their body.

  14. Rusty Dils says:

    I may be wrong about my predictions that the republicans are going to do well nationally Tuesday, seems like the democrats still have some tricks up their sleeves

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtbqebpV9vY

  15. ben says:

    By Tuesday night, the morons who give the Republicans the senate (american people) will be unpleasantly “shocked” to hear only talk of impeachment. The next 2 years will be a total gridlock of government shut downs over birth control, marriage equality and vacant nominated positions.

  16. Jason330 says:

    Agreed. And they only have the Democrat Party to blame for it because the Republicans are hated and are terrible at everything except kicking the shitty Democrat Party’s ass in elections.

  17. TheReal'Really?' says:

    31st- For being outnumbered 2-1 with registration, the fact that this is viewed as a competitive race says a lot about Chick’s campaign skills. That being said, I get the feeling its a coinflip, with Lynn favored. I don’t think Lynn has done much to win this race, I think the registration advantage and endorsement of Daryl Scott would pretty much give any D a win here. If Lynn does win, he’ll have withstood the R’s best shot, so unless he does something foolish while in office, he’ll be there for a while.

    30th- Outten, Gallo ran respectably, but that district is the anti -31st, think registration is 2:1 the other way. I grew up in the 30th…Bobby Outten is the personification of that district. He’ll lose when the 30th changes demographics, not because a good D candidate runs a good campaign.

    29th- This race has been entertaining. Kramer says Paradee raises taxes, but misspells “disrict”, Paradee says no I did not, I lowered them, and you just want to be in office for “contact” for dad’s company (mispelled contracts). Delaware State News Editor comments on their opposing editorials and says, well Mr. Paradee, you did raise taxes, then Paradee continues saying he didn’t. Paradee has name recognition, is the incumbent, and has registration in his favor, so I think the newcomer saw his only chance was to paint Paradee as a negative. Pretty smart, probably only chance he had; a happy,sunshine, my ideas are better campaign would have resulted in a double digit loss. I expect a respectable showing in the mid-40’s for Kramer, but Paradee carries the day.

  18. Jason330 says:

    From what I hear, Paradee has been working the constituent services side pretty well. If the “all politics is local” adage holds up, he should win.

  19. Terry says:

    While this has nothing to do with the outcome of the election, with Kent County being so small and “everybody knows everybody”, most people that know Paradee would describe him as a pompous ass. You can tell that he’s from money and generally struts around with a “holier than thou” attitude.

  20. Susssex D says:

    Del Dem: You are correct that we all thought that Bob’s two year term after reapportionment would be his last. He told me that himself. I also agree that Richardson ran last time to gain the name recognition to win the open seat. However, that doesn’t translate into a loss for Bob this time around. Richardson is running a lackluster campaign, and Bob is beating the pavement. He is openly supported by the traditional Republican groups (endorsing him on his mailings and push pieces), and all the elected Republicans and old money R supporters are in Bob’s camp. It’s no secret that Danny Short is Bob’s heir apparent, and Danny is the de facto head of the Western Sussex Republicans. Richardson doesn’t even have the support of his own party. When you combine the D’s who support Bob with the R’s that support Bob with the R’s that support Danny, what you get is a democratic victory (if in name only). There are two Republicans in the the district who have a shot at defeating Bob Venables. One is Danny Short, and the other is Marlene Elliot (who readers might remember as Bill Roth’s State Director). Neither are running.

  21. TheReal'Really?' says:

    I’ve been hearing that Terry but was surprised, always thought he was more polished. I’ve seen many similar comments this year. I was privy to a conversation last night where one of Trey’s former neighbors quite explicitly stated “He’s an a–hole. I wouldn’t vote for him! He’s arrogant rude and insincere.”

    Not saying any of this is true or warranted, but it is a reputation that apparently is out there.

  22. Susssex D says:

    Terry: You obviously don’t know Trey. I do. He may come from a successful Kent County family, but that doesn’t make him a pompous ass. Sounds like penis envy to me. Trey is genuine, honest and down to earth.

  23. Terry says:

    Our sons played lacrosse together and prior to that, I knew him from bands he’s played in. I’ve had enough interaction to base my opinion on (and justify other’s), and believe me, there’s no envy here.

  24. Jason330 says:

    My hopes/predictions:

    US Senator–Coons v. Wade – I’d love for Coons to absolutely kick Wade’s ass. Kick it cartoon style, so a giant bump rises on Wade’s head.

    US Rep–Carney v. Izzo – I want to see Carney squeak by Izzo because of votes lost to Bernie August. That’s your GODDAM constituents talking John!!! Stop giving John Boehner hand-jobs under the table, and talking abot how great bipartisanship is!!!

    Treasurer–Barney v. Simpler – Barney by a point.

    AG–Denn v. Kittila – Denn by 30 points.

    Auditor–Mayrack v. Wagner – Mayrack, please put this douche out of his misery. Being the only statewide Republican means people are paying attention to him and he clearly hates that.

    6th SD–Snyder-Hall v. Lopez – I really want to like Lopez, and in fact I do like him. But nice guy republicans are still Republicans when the chips are down. Snyder Hall by a point.

    10th SD–Hall-Long v. Marino – Hall Long by 5 points instead of ten.

    9th RD–Hortiz v. Hensley – What’s the difference?

    22nd RD–Mackenzie v. Miro v. Newton – I hope Newton makes it respectable. What ever happens more votes will be raked in by 3rd party candidates this year than since the prohibition party was in its hey-day.

    41st RD–Atkins v. Collins – Collins please (a genuine R instead of a pretend D), but i doubt it. Atkins by a point.

  25. Old Sussex County Native says:

    I have a feeling Atkins can pull it off, but not by a landslide. Maybe 50 – 125 votes.
    (Let’s not hope not 21!) I don’t know what to think about the Sheriff race here. I don’t see Christopher winning, but I can’t figure between Lee/Gooch…

  26. Susssex D says:

    Terry: Touche’

  27. Sussex D: You’re probably right about the Venables-Richardson race. I looked at it based on how I’ve seen political careers wind down and end. Also, on how careers start: Run strongly the first time, then keep on running if you fall short.

    However, you make a good point about Dan Short as the heir-apparent…although he’s not getting any younger either, and, assuming Venables completes his term, he’ll have to wait another four years.

    I can’t change my prediction, but you’ve pretty much convinced me that this one is going in my L column.

  28. painesme says:

    I know that Republicans *always* vote, but seriously? Who is there to get excited about on the R side. This is no 2010.

    US Senator–Coons v. Wade – Coons with 62%.
    US Rep–Carney v. Izzo – Carney with 58%
    Treasurer–Barney v. Simpler – Barney with 54%
    AG–Denn v. Kittila – Denn with 60%
    Auditor–Mayrack v. Wagner – Mayrack with 56%

  29. Tom McKenney says:

    It seems to me being a pompous ass has not prevented either D’s or R’s from being elected.

  30. TheReal'Really?' says:

    True, someone the other day made a hilarious comment about all the flaws of the people seeking office, followed by someone saying “and thats just the ones that win.”

    Its only remarkable because the number of people that have encountered him that say similar things, going to have to tidy up that dazzling personality before he starts looking statewide as I heard someone suggest is his intention.

  31. Plexing says:

    Simpler will win by 12 points, Wagner probably more like 8-10

  32. Delaware Dem says:

    Hahahaha. Such a vote for Simpler and Wagner would have Wade and Izzo winning too. Not going to happen.

  33. Jason330 says:

    Can the election be tomorrow?

  34. Terry says:

    It can if you sleep for the next 72 hours.

  35. Jason330 says:

    Not a bad plan.

  36. AQC says:

    I predict Barney wins and Mayrack loses. My upset prediction is that Gerald Brady loses. Incidentally, I hope I’m wrong on Mayrack and Brady.

  37. Bane says:

    Barney is going to get his rear-end handed to him. Simpler is winning this thing. Make it Simpler 14′

  38. Terry says:

    I agree Bane. I just don’t see how anyone can vote for a candidate in that office that has absolutely no experience; especially after Flowers.

    If there was ever a time to vote for a candidate based on qualifications and not political party, this is it.

  39. Jason330 says:

    lol. Seriously. You guys crack me up. Bane – Allow for the possibility of a Simpler loss. I don’t want to hear about any crisis hotline situations.

    Terry – Your depiction of a nonpartisan independent is a little lacking.

  40. Bane says:

    Jason, Ole buddy…. Barney got handled in every debate I saw and (according to others) every debate I didn’t see. Aside from Simpler’s stupid comment about Barney’s service, the guy has run a flawless campaign. His ads seem to resonate and he knows what he’s talking about. Other than Barney’s 3rd grade wish of creating $100 savings accounts for every kid in Delaware, I haven’t heard much from him outside of, “I promise I will not rock the boat or ruffle any feathers”

  41. Mitch Crane says:

    Depends on the qualifications. Simpler’s ads seem to think that the Treasurer can impose a gasoline tax and raise “state wide property taxes”. That is what they say, I cannot imagine he is making it up. Why would he lie?

    No executive is “expert” in all areas of operation. You look for an educated and ethical person, with character, capable of running an office, hiring the best people, and reaching out for the best expert opinions out there. The Treasurer does NOT decide how to invest money-the Treasurer is one vote on a board that decides. I am fine with a person who takes principled stands, has an underfgraduate degree from a progressive institution like Swarthmore College and advance degreesm including juris doctorate. Sean Barney is certainly qualified; has deep character and principles, will not embarass us in office and is not lying to the voters about what he wants do, what the office can do, and what his opponent will do. Can I make that any simpler?

  42. Jason330 says:

    “I promise I will not rock the boat or ruffle any feathers” Seems like a pretty good campaign theme for Treasurer.

    Bane – Just look at Simpler. Does that look like someone you want in charge of your checkbook? Voters are idiots. You need to be mentally prepared.

  43. Mitch Crane says:

    You can determine character by looking at how a person’s developed a sense of duty and right and wrong. We all should know by now that Sean Barney left his safe job in DC and enlisted in the Marines after 9/11. He did not have to do that. The fact he was shot and nearly died was not a decision he made-enlisting and risking his life was. Sean says this made him want to serve his country in any way he could

    Celia Cohen describes very well Ken Simpler’s decision’s. While we can certainly understand how a young man could make a mistake and grow from it, Ken’s explanation of the lesson learned, as quoted in “Grapevine” show a continued attitude of being “privileged”. His position is being sentenced to jail makes him understand about punishments that are too harsh and that will make him a better member of the Pardons Board!!

    http://www.delawaregrapevine.com/10-14simplerprinceton.asp

  44. Terry says:

    Jason/Mitch,
    I have the upmost respect for Sean and his military service. I’m a 19 year veteran myself, but that alone doesn’t qualify me (or him) to serve in an office responsible for the taxpayer’s purse. Now, if he was running for a Legislative position, I would stand behind him; Veterans need more representation in State and Federal gov’t – but the guy just isn’t qualified for the position he’s running for.

  45. John Manifold says:

    46 cases of alcohol poisoning.

    http://www.thecrimson.com/article/1988/3/19/charges-brought-against-eating-clubs-pthe/

    Poor kid from city would still be in jail. Privileged boy chuckles, “youthful indiscretion,” a speed-bump to Wall Street. The quotes in Grapevine are a fabulous salad: (1) “accept responsibility” but (2) not my fault, (3) someone else did what I got blamed for, and (4) everyone’s always done it.

  46. John Manifold says:

    And for all this babbling about Simpler’s bookkeeping experience at the family hotel, note that Barney – in addition to Yale Law School and the Harvard graduate degree – has a master’s in economics from Columbia.

    http://centerforpublicleadership.org/ZuckermanFellowship/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=515&Itemid=254

  47. Susan says:

    Rappa for the 38th good to see!

    Such a close race, be sure to vote.

  48. Rufus Y. Kneedog says:

    Coons because his office was the only one of our three US Congressmen to answer a call for help with a military award for an elderly relative. A very nice lady named Desiree followed through and got it done. Carper and Carneys offices didn’t bother to respond. That counts for something.
    Don’t like Carney, Izzo – I’ll never vote for someone who won’t debate. I’ll have to go with August.
    I like Denn but there is some serious choreography going on here and it seems like decisions have been made that we are not privy to. I like Damavandi and I think serious 3rd party candidates should be encouraged.
    At the very end of the very last debate I finally heard Barney stop the hedge fund attack to say that he’s had x number of years experience in govt budgeting and Simpler has none. That was the one and only time I heard him articulate a reason to vote FOR him and not against Simpler. Not enough for me and a bad campaign. If Simpler doesn’t win there is no viable Republican party in Delaware.
    If Mayrack loses…..I don’t know what I’ll do but 4 more years of an absentee auditor is just not fair to the taxpayers of DE. I see this race as a litmus test on the intelligence of the Delaware electorate.

  49. Old Sussex County Native says:

    Rufus Y. Kneedog said of the Marack race “I see this race as a litmus test on the intelligence of the Delaware Electorate.” Well, in my opinion that pales into insignificance in comparison to the the Sheriff race in Sussex. If somehow Christopher pulls off a write in win, THAT would prove Sussex needs to be sawed off Delaware and shoved into the sea…

    (A little hyperbole for the weekend)

  50. Mitch Crane says:

    Sussex voters will pass that test. In 2006 there was a well-organized write-in campaign for US Senate. The Democrat was Tom Carper; the Republican, Jan Ting. The write-in candidate received 10,000 votes of the nearly 40,000 cast. Her name–Christine O’Donnell. Jeff Christopher is not a….Chrisitne O’Donnell.

  51. painesme says:

    Mitch – that’s my thought as well. None of the R candidates are Christine O’Donnell. I know Republicans are better midterm voters in general, but who’s turning them out to vote? In a state with this kind of registration advantage, I don’t think that there’s any chance of a Statewide Republican winning by 10 points – or at all for that matter.

  52. TheReal'Really?' says:

    Delaware is so blue, now voters basically have to start picking between shades of blue. Even Republicans who can get away with it run as Dem’s, like Atkins, Paradee, etc.

    Barney is hand picked, groomed, and now its “his turn” and I think a lot of people are turned off by this spoonfed, next man up, approach from party. Barney has done nothing to win the race, Simpler has not done anything to lose other than be Republican.

    I think if Simpler wins and acquits himself well in the position, it could revive a dead party, which is bad news for the cookie cutter Carper Dems, but good news for those looking for the production line to stop.

  53. Mitch Crane says:

    I thought I posted a correction. COD received 10,000 write-ins; Ting 16,000 votes and Senator Carpey 24,000. 50,000 Sussex Countians voted that November.

  54. Old Sussex County Native says:

    I have a terrible feeling that Sussex was responsible for a very large percentage of those 10,000 COD write-ins, which is scary because so many COD supporters were/are Christopher supporters who know how to do a write in.

  55. Old Sussex County Native says:

    I have been digging around on the internet trying to find the exact # of write-ins COD got in Sussex Co. only can find the Delaware Statewide 11, 172 or 4% of the statewide total, but on the County breakdowns, they don’t list any of the write in votes that I can find.

    Anybody out there know the total write-ins COD actually got in Sussex Co. in 2006?

  56. Mitch Crane says:

    The 10,000 figure is for Sussex County. This number is from the Sussex Board of Elections’ head Ken McDowell.

  57. painesme says:

    TheReal’Really?’ –

    Simpler will lose for no other reason than being a Republican? And other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

    Sorry – supporting the Republican platform is a pretty large and extensive reason for voting against a candidate. I know in your head party affiliation and policy positions are two separate, but if you look closely at the trends, they’re pretty strongly correlated. Maybe the reasons Republicans lose in Delaware is because people like progressive policies – not because “Democrat” has a better ring to it.

  58. Old Sussex County Native says:

    That is astonishing! If the statewide total she got was 11, 172 that means only 1,172 came from Kent and New Castle, and a whopping 10K from Sussex? That is hard to believe and shows there could in fact be a formidable “write in” faction for Christopher.
    Seems like everybody I ever met who was wild about COD also is a Christopher fan. Those folk are highly motivated to show up and vote. Please dear God, Mitch be right! Hope and pray this all ends Tuesday, and we have a new Sheriff. Am I crazy to worry? We sure need our side to show up and vote

  59. painesme says:

    Old Sussex County Native –

    If I’m reading Mitch’s stats right, it sounds like Christopher and Robert will split the vote on the right, which would give a big opening to Gooch to win with a plurality.

  60. ephraim says:

    Delaware NewsZap ran a piece on candidate positions. Not responding in Sussex were Atkins, Mayor, and Gooch. Roach did, but came up empty for the first of only two questions: why are you running for this position?

    Can’t imagine Mitch will happy about this.

    http://delaware.newszap.com/centraldelaware/136060-70/story

  61. I apparently am not Bill Rappa says:

    ODonnell in 2006 in Sussex received 7541 votes according to the official results archive.

    http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general_office_write-in.shtml

  62. John Manifold says:

    State Treasurer candidates answer Newszap question on public safety:

    Barney: Each individual who returns to prison rather than getting on the right track costs the taxpayers upwards of $30,000 per year in added corrections costs. As treasurer, I will work with our commissioner of Corrections to ensure that we use the time that individuals are in our prisons to teach them the basic financial skills they need to stay on track once they leave, for their own benefit and the benefit of all of us. …

    Simpler: Did not answer.

  63. Geezer says:

    And this matters to the treasurer’s office how?

  64. John Manifold says:

    I value public officials who are concerned about re-entry for ex-offenders, living wage for workers, women’s right to choose.

    The Simplers don’t want the issues to stray beyond “he’s a [former] hedge fund guy.”