Futures Market Handicapping the Statewide Races – October 28th

Lots of buying and selling action in the trading markets since my last update. Who has crashed and who still has a little upside potential? Let’s take a look.

Senate: Chris Coons 0.98 (0.98) – Kevin Wade 0.01 (0.02)

House: John Carney 0.95 (0.99) – Rose Izzo 0.01 (0.01) Bernie August 0.04 (na)

Attorney General: Matt Denn 0.95 (0.93) – Ted Kittila 0.05 (0.07)

Treasurer: Chip Flowers 0.00 (0.39) – Sean Barney 0.48 (0.37) – Ken Simpler 0.48(0.17) – Sher Valenzuela 0.00

Auditor: Brenda Mayrack 0.48(0.43) – Tom Wagner 0.48 (0.47)

You could have made some money in the Treasurers race. Shorting Flowers and taking a long position in Simpler at 0.15 was the winning move. Other than simply guessing the Treasurer and Auditors races and winning the coin flip, I don;t see any profitable moves left. Simpler, for example, appears to be at his max trading value. Smart traders will probably be taking their Simpler profits off the table. But hey, this is politics so do “smart traders” exist? For instance, somebody placed some sentimental money on Bernie August, bidding him up to 0.04. (Okay, it was me. There is still a week to go. Carney could still Bill Roth it.)
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Not much action in the trading markets as most serious traders are summering in the Hamptons and nobody has punched a baby… yet. These are last night’s closing prices. Put your buy and sell orders in the comments section. For the time being I’m going to assume that a buy order for one candidate at a given price is matched by a sell order on their opponent.

Senate: Chris Coons 0.98 – Kevin Wade 0.01 – Carl Smink 0.01

House: John Carney 0.99 – Rose Izzo 0.01

Attorney General: Matt Denn 0.93 – Ted Kittila 0.07

Treasurer: Chip Flowers 0.39 – Sean Barney 0.37 – Ken Simpler 0.17 – Sher Valenzuela 0.08

Auditor: Brenda Mayrack 0.43 – Ken Matlusky 0.08 – Tom Wagner 0.47

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Imagine you could buy shares of the statewide candidates. After the election winners would pay out $1.00 per share – losing positions would pay zero. So if you buy a share of Kevin Wade, say, for $0.01 (one penny) would you do it? Are “Smooth like Suede’s” chances better than 1%? Is that a good bet?

Anyway, when you have a lot of buyers and sellers with fairly decent knowledge of the markets, the truth appears to emerge from these types of transactions. Futures markets are good predictors of political outcomes. So let’s get it rolling.

These are last night’s closing prices. Put your buy and sell orders in the comments section and I’ll up this for as long as it remains interesting to me.

Senate: Chris Coons 0.98 – Kevin Wade 0.01 – Carl Smink 0.01

House: John Carney 0.99 – Rose Izzo 0.01

Attorney General: Matt Denn 0.93 – Ted Kittila 0.07

Treasurer: Chip Flowers 0.40 – Sean Barney 0.35 – Ken Simpler 0.15 – Sher Valenzuela 0.10

Auditor: Brenda Mayrack 0.41 – Ken Matlusky 0.08 – Tom Wagner 0.49