Saturday Open Thread [10.11.14]

South Dakota Independent Larry Pressler told The Hill that he won’t say who he’d caucus with if he wins his independent U.S. Senate race in South Dakota but said that if elected, he’d be a “friend of Obama.” He also confirmed voting for Obama twice: “I don’t regret those votes, ’cause on that day, that’s how I felt.”

I kinda hope he doesn’t win, and in fact, I predict below that he will not:

Yes, that’s right. I think, when all is said and done, the Democrats will hope onto Arkansas, Iowa, North Carolina and Colorado, while losing Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska and Louisiana. That would leave the GOP one seat short of the majority, but then I believe the Dems will win Georgia and Kentucky from the GOP, and the Independent Orman will win Kansas, and then caucus with the Dems.

Polling Goodness

THE SENATE

ALASKA–CNN/ORC: Dan Sullivan (R) 50, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 44
ALASKA–Fox News: Dan Sullivan (R) 44, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 40

ARKANSAS–Fox News: Tom Cotton (R) 46, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 39
ARKANSAS–AR-Sen (Opinion Research Associates): Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 45, Tom Cotton (R) 42

COLORADO–Fox News): Cory Gardner (R) 43, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 37

GEORGIA–PPP: David Perdue (R) 45, Michelle Nunn (D) 43, Amanda Swafford (L) 5
GEORGIA–SurveyUSA: David Perdue (R) 46, Michelle Nunn (D) 45, Amanda Swafford (L) 3

ILLINOIS–We Ask America: Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 51, Jim Oberweis (R) 38, Sharon Hanson (L) 4

IOWA–The Morey Group–R: Bruce Braley (D) 39, Joni Ernst (R) 38

KANSAS–CNN/ORC: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 49, Greg Orman (I) 48
KANSAS–Fox News: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 44, Greg Orman (I) 39
KANSAS–SurveyUSA: Greg Orman (I) 47, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 42

KENTUCKY–Fox News: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 45, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41

MASSACHUSETTS–MassINC: Sen. Ed Markey (D) 56, Brian Herr (R) 30

MICHIGAN–Glengariff Group: Gary Peters (D) 44, Terri Land (R) 35
MICHIGAN–Marketing Resource Group–R: Gary Peters (D) 47, Terri Land (R) 36
MICHIGAN– Wenzel–R: Gary Peters (D) 47, Terri Land (R) 44

MINNESOTA–Public Opinion Strategies–R: Sen. Al Franken (D) 46, Mike McFadden (R) 39

NORTH CAROLINA–The Morey Group–R: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 40, Thom Tillis (R) 38, Sean Haugh (L) 2
NORTH CAROLINA–Public Opinion Strategies: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 42, Sean Haugh (L) 4
NORTH CAROLINA–Rasmussen: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 48, Thom Tillis (R) 46
NORTH CAROLINA–Suffolk: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 47, Thom Tillis (R) 45, Sean Haugh (L) 4

NEW HAMPSHIRE–New England College: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49, Scott Brown (R) 46
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Univ. of New Hampshire: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47, Scott Brown (R) 41

NEW JERSEY–Stockton Polling Institute: Sen. Cory Booker (D) 48, Jeff Bell (R) 39

SOUTH DAKOTA–SurveyUSA: Mike Rounds (R) 35, Larry Pressler (I) 32, Rick Weiland (D) 28

VIRGINIA–Christopher Newport Univ.: Sen. Mark Warner (D) 51, Ed Gillespie (R) 39
VIRGINIA–Univ. of Mary Washington: Sen. Mark Warner (D) 47, Ed Gillespie (R) 37, Robert Sarvis (L) 6