Friday Open Thread [9.26.14]

This is a massive polling dump that includes polls that go back to last week, polls that I have not previously posted. I have grouped all the states alphabetically, and then separated the offices of Senator and Governor. Where there are multiple polls in a particular state and office, the older polls are listed first, and newer polls are listed last. This past polling week has some good news from Arkansas, very bad news from Alaska, bad news from Colorado, and good news from Iowa and North Carolina. These Senate races are going to go down to the wire, and turnout will be the key. If our voters turnout, Dems will win all of them. If not, the GOP will win. Right now, as you will see, I have the GOP picking up 6 new Senate seats while successfully defending Kentucky and Georgia, BUT the GOP will lose Kansas. And Iowa remains too close to call.

So that leaves us with 50 GOP seats, 48 Democratic seats, 1 toss up Iowa seat, and a kingmaker in Kansas. The Independent Greg Orman has said that he will caucus with whomever wins the majority. But what if that decision is up to him? If Iowa goes to the Dems, then it will be 50-49. If Orman goes with the Dems, it is 50-50 with Biden (D) the tiebreaking vote, giving the Dems the majority. If Orman goes with the GOP, it will be 51-49 GOP.

Personally, I think the Dems will still win in Colorado despite this last week of bad polls there, and I think they will win in Iowa, leaving us with a 51-49 Dem Senate.

ALASKA SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–REPUBLICAN GAIN
Hays Research: Sen. Mark Begich (D) 39, Dan Sullivan (R) 34%, with 22% still undecided.
Public Policy Polling: Sullivan (R) 43, Begich (D) 41.
Rasmussen: Sullivan (R) 48, Mark Begich (D) 43.
Dittman Research: Sullivan (R) 49, Begich (D) 43.

ALASKA GOVERNOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–INDEPENDENT/DEMOCRATIC GAIN
Hays Research: Bill Walker (I) 33, Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 25%, with 31% undecided.
PPP: Walker (I) 42, Parnell (R) 41

ARKANSAS SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Hickman Analytics: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 46, Rep. Tom Cotton (R) 43.
Public Policy Polling: Cotton (R) 43, Pryor (D) 38.
USA Today/Suffolk University: Pryor (D) 45, Cotton (R) 43.

CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Public Policy Institute of California: Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 54, Neel Kashkari (R) 33.

COLORADO GOVERNOR–TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Quinnipiac: Bob Beauprez (R) 50, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 40.
USA Today/Suffolk University Poll: Hickenlooper (D) 43, Beauprez (R) 41.

COLORADO SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–REPUBLICAN GAIN
Keating Research—D: Sen. Mark Udall (D) 47, Cory Gardner (R) 42
Myers Research—D: Sen. Mark Udall (D) 48, Cory Gardner (R) 46
USA Today/Suffolk University Poll: Gardner (R) 43, Udall (D) 42.
Quinnipiac: Gardner (R) 48, Udall (D) 40.
Public Policy Polling: Gardner (R) 47, Udall (D) 45.

FLORIDA GOVERNOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–REPUBLICAN HOLD
SurveyUSA: Gov. Rick Scott (R) 44, Charlie Crist (D) 39, Adrian Wyllie (L) 7.
Quinnipiac: Scott (R) 44, Crist (D) 42.
SurveyUSA: Scott (R) 43, Crist (D) 42.

GEORGIA SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–REPUBLICAN HOLD
Rasmussen: David Perdue (R) 46, Michelle Nunn (D) 41.
Survey USA: Perdue (R) 46, Nunn (D) 45.

GEORGIA GOVERNOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC GAIN
SurveyUSA: Jason Carter (D) 45, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 44.

ILLINOIS GOVERNOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–REPUBLICAN GAIN
We Ask America: Bruce Rauner (R) 44, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 41.

IOWA SENATOR–TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Quinnipiac: Joni Ernst (R) 50, Bruce Braley (D) 44.
Fox News: Braley (D) 41, Joni Ernst (R) 41.
Rasmussen: Ernst (R) 43, Braley (D) 43.

KANSAS SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–INDEPENDENT/DEMOCRATIC GAIN
Fox News: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 40, Greg Orman (I) 38, Chad Taylor (D) 11.
Rasmussen: Orman (I) 45, Roberts (R) 40.
PPP: Orman (I) 41, Roberts (R) 34, Taylor (D) 6, Randall Batson (Lib) 4, Undecided 15.

KANSAS GOVERNOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC GAIN
Rasmussen: Paul Davis (D) 47, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 43

KENTUCKY SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–REPUBLICAN HOLD
Ipsos-Reuters: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 46, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42.

LOUISIANA SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–REPUBLICAN GAIN
Fox News: Bill Cassidy (R) 51%, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 38%
Gravis—R: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 45, Bill Cassidy (R) 45

MASSACHUSETTS GOVERNOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC HOLD
WBUR-FM/MassINC Polling Group: Martha Coakley (D) 41, Charlie Baker (R) 34.
Boston Globe: Coakley (D) 39, Baker (R) 36.
WBUR: Coakley (D) 46, Baker (R) 36.

MICHIGAN SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Denno Research: Gary Peters (D) 45, Terri Lynn Land (R) 38.
We Ask America: Peters (D) 42, Land (R) 39.
Magellan—R: Peters (D) 45, Land (R) 40.
Public Policy Polling: Peters (D) 47, Land (R) 40.
Rasmussen: Peters (D) 41, Land (R) 39

MICHIGAN GOVERNOR–TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PPP: Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 46, Mark Schauer (D) 44.
Denno Research: Shauer (D) 43, Snyder (R) 40.
We Ask America: Snyder (R) 43, Schauer (D) 43.

NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC HOLD
New England College: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51, Scott Brown (R) 40
ARG: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50, Scott Brown (R) 45
Public Policy Polling: Shaheen (D) 50, Brown (R) 44.

NEW HAMPSHIRE GOVERNOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC HOLD
PPP: Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 52, Walt Havenstein (R) 43.

NORTH CAROLINA SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC HOLD
PPP: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 40.
Fox News: Hagan (D) 41, Tillis (R) 36.
High Point University: Hagan (D) 42, Tillis (R) 40.
Global Strategy Group-D: Hagan (D) 45, Tillis (R) 41
Gravis-R: Hagan (D) 45, Tillis (R) 41

PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC GAIN
Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call: Tom Wolf (D) 54, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 33.
Keystone Report/Magellan Strategies: Wolf (D) 49, Corbett (R) 40.

VIRGINIA SENATOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Roanoke College: Sen. Mark Warner (D) 46, Ed Gillespie (R) 27.
Quinnipiac: Warner (D) 48, Gillespie (R) 39.

WISCONSIN GOVERNOR–CURRENT PREDICTION–REPUBLICAN HOLD
Marquette University Law School: Gov. Scott Walker (R) 49, Mary Burke (D) 46.