Primary Day Open Thread [9.9.14]
If you are a Republican or a Democrat, get out there and vote in your respective party primaries. For me, I think the only race I will be voting on in my precinct is the Auditor primary, such as it is. I assume that Chip Flowers’ name has been removed from the ballot. Usually, I would have voted early in the morning, but not today. I was too rushed this morning, so I will, for the first time in my life, vote after work. I am already stressed about it.
Here are some polling goodness to satisfy us. There are a few bright spots in this list of polls, and I will give you the state of play below…
ARKANSAS–SENATE–Rasmussen: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 44, Rep. Tom Cotton (R) 43.
ARKANSAS–SENATE–CNN/ORC International: Cotton (R) 49, Pryor (D) 47.
ARKANSAS–SENATE–NBC/Marist: Cotton (R) 45, Pryor (D) 40.
ARKANSAS–SENATE–Hickman Analytics for Pryor (D): Pryor (D) 45, Cotton (R) 43.
CALIFORNIA–GOVERNOR–Field poll: Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 50, Neel Kashkari (R) 34.
COLORADO–SENATE–Rasmussen: Sen. Mark Udall (D) 44, Cory Gardner (R) 42.
COLORADO–SENATE–NBC/Marist: Udall (D) 48, Gardner (R) 42.
FLORIDA–GOVERNOR–Tampa Bay Times: Gov. Rick Scott (R) 41, Charlie Crist (D) 36, Adrian Wyllie (L) 6.
FLORIDA–GOVERNOR–Gravis Marketing: Scott 37, Crist 37, with 26% still undecided.
FLORIDA–GOVERNOR–Mason-Dixon: Scott (R) 43, Crist (D) 41.
GEORGIA–SENATE–WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB: Michelle Nunn (D) 45, David Perdue (R) 43.
GEORGIA–GOVERNOR–WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB: Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 44, Jason Carter (D) 42.
ILLINOIS–SENATE–Harper Polling: Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 44, Jim Oberweis (R) 38.
ILLINOIS–GOVERNOR–A new We Ask America: Bruce Rauner (R) 46, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 37, Chad Grimm (L) 7.
IOWA–SENATE–Loras College–Rep. Bruce Braley (D) 45, Joni Ernst (R) 40.
KANSAS–SENATE–SurveyUSA: Greg Orman (I) 37, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 36, Chad Taylor (D)* 10. *-Taylor has dropped out of the race, but there is some dispute about his name remaining on the ballot.
KANSAS–GOVERNOR–SurveyUSA: Paul Davis (D) 47, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 40, Keen Umbehr (L) 5.
KENTUCKY–SENATE–SurveyUSA: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 46, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42.
KENTUCKY–SENATE–CNN/ORC International: McConnell (R) 50, Grimes (D) 46.
KENTUCKY–SENATE–Rasmussen: McConnell (R) 46, Grimes (D) 41.
KENTUCKY–SENATE–NBC/Marist: McConnell (R) 47, Grimes (D) 39.
LOUISIANA–SENATE–A new Rasmussen: Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) 44, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 41.
LOUISIANA–SENATE–Senate Conservatives Fund (R): Landrieu (D) 46, Cassidy (R) 45.
MASSACHUSETTS–GOVERNOR–University of Massachusetts at Lowell: Martha Coakley (D) 41, Charlie Baker (R) 32, Jeff McCormick (I) 7.
MICHIGAN–SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Gary Peters (D) 43, Terri Lynn Land (R) 36.
MICHIGAN–GOVERNOR–Public Policy Polling: Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 43, Mark Schauer (D) 42.
MINNESOTA–SENATE–SurveyUSA: Sen. Al Franken (D) 51, Mike McFadden (R) 42.
MINNESOTA–GOVERNOR–SurveyUSA: Gov. Mark Dayton (D) 49, Jeff Johnson (R) 40.
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATE–Kiley & Co. (D): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50, Scott Brown (R) 42.
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATE–Public Opinion Strategies (R): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 44, Sean Haugh (L) 7.
OHIO–GOVERNOR–Akron Buckeye Poll: Gov. John Kasich (R) 40, Ed Fitzgerald (D) 21%, with a large 39% still undecided.
PENNSYLVANIA–GOVERNOR–Robert Morris University Polling Institute: Tom Wolf (D) 56, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 25.
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR–We Ask America: Mary Burke (D) 48, Gov. Scott Walker (R) 44.
Here is the state of play. The GOP needs to gain, or net, 6 seats to win 51 seats, which will be enough for a Republican majority. Remember, if they win just 50, chances are highly likely that Vice President Biden will have the tiebreaking vote and thus give the Dems the majority.
They have three seats already in their pocket: West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. They need three more. Their targets, and of course, the competitive races are Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado and Alaska.
The Dems have been doing well in Alaska and Colorado, so let’s assume we win those two races. The recent poll out of Iowa looks good for Braley, so let’s assume for now that the Dems retain that seat. That leaves North Carolina, which a recent poll paid for by the NRSC shows a tied race (which may mean that in actuality Hagan is leading), Arkansas and Louisiana. The GOP appears to have taken a consistent lead based on all the polls above in Arkansas, though it remains a toss up. In Louisiana, we have two polls showing both a Landreiu and a Cassidy win, so that is a toss up.
The GOP needs to win all three. And they need to do so while retaining all their seats. They seem to be doing a good job of that in Kentucky recently, with McConnell taking a consistent lead over the Democrat Grimes, but that is still a competitive race that could go either way. And the Dems still lead in Georgia.
And I am not even considering at this point what happens if the Independent wins in Kansas, which the polls now indicate. Orman has said that he will caucus with whomever wins the majority, but what happens if the GOP wins 5 seats, and thus 50 seats, and the Dems have 49 seats? He can single-handedly decide who gets control.
So the Senate is still very much in play, but it is not a done deal as you hear all the pundits declare.
Observations in the City at Luther Towers polling place:
Only about 2 candidate signs out front, I was the only person voting right after 12. The Treasurer race had stickers over it. Gerry Brady was schmoozing with the seniors. In and out in literally about 2 minutes.
Bernie Sanders writes a letter to the Post Office commissioner telling them not to enact the cuts that might take effect on Oct. 1. 51 Senators agree and sign the letter. Guess which two DE Senator’s names aren’t on the letter. What fucking assholes! I’ll be calling in the AM to give them hell…
Here’s the quote from Bernie’s newsletter with the link afterwards:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has added his crucial backing to calls for a one-year moratorium on U.S. Postal Service plans to close up to 82 mail processing plants, slow down mail delivery and eliminate up to 15,000 jobs.
Reid added his signature to those of 50 other senators who signed a letter calling for a ban on Postal Service cuts as part of must-pass legislation to keep the government running into the new fiscal year that begins Oct. 1. Sens. Bernie Sanders, Jon Tester and Tammy Baldwin organized the effort to block the cuts proposed by Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe.
“This one-year moratorium will give Congress the time it needs to enact the comprehensive postal reforms that are necessary for the Postal Service to function effectively into the future,” the senators wrote in the letter to Sens. Barbara Mikulski and Richard Shelby, the chairwoman and ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. “At a time when our middle class is disappearing, the loss of 15,000 good-paying Postal Service jobs will harm our local communities and economies,” the senators added.
With Reid’s signature, a bipartisan majority of all senators now have signed the letter.
http://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/recent-business/stop-postal-service-cuts-09-04-2014?utm_source=berniebuzz&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Read+more+link&utm_campaign=National+Bernie+Buzz+09-10
There’s only one poll that actually counts, and that one is in November.
Nate Silver puts the odds of a Republican majority at 65.1%, but it’s still a long way to election day.
Of course, what I find interesting is the President’s decision, at the behest of vulnerable Democratic candidates, to delay any action on immigration until after the election. Mr Obama wants to blame obstructionist Republicans, of course, but the truth is that the Democrats know that, if their proposals are made before the election, more of them will lose. That sounds to me as though the Democrats are conceding that the voters in our democratically elected representative republic would oppose their proposals.
Shouldn’t a party which calls itself Democratic want to propose legislation which would be supported democratically?
Why go through the heavy lifting of proposing legislation when it isn’t going to go anywhere?
Seriously, what makes anyone think comprehensive immigration reform is going to pass? Ever.
If the Democrats thought that they had a winning position, they could propose it and see where it went; that they are delaying their proposals until after the election tells you that they believe their ideas would be electoral losers.
Who knows? If they were winners, maybe they could take back the House! But what they lack is the courage of their convictions.
They did do that. And they got Republicans to go along with it too. It is your pals in the House who are obstructing this one.
Is there anything more morally bankrupt than a bunch of calculating bastards like Republican Dana demanding doctrinal purity from others?
Remember the old Far Side cartoon with the dryer labeled “cat fud,” the cat looking inside, and the dog praying, “Oh, please!” Republicans are that dog — they really think it’s gonna work.
Sam Wang over at Princeton Election Consortium has the D’s keeping a majority at the Senate at 70%.
538 and the PEC were the most fun you could have with polling in 2012, and they were not far apart. Now they have very differing outcomes, which means that this is gonna be more fun to watch than the actual elections.
Mr Geezer wrote:
I may be calculating, but I was legitimate, thank you very much! 🙂
But surely you can see what we’re doing: y’all are huge hypocrites, and we are going to point it out.
It’s not hypocritical. It’s calculating. There’s a difference, though you clearly don’t know it.
Oh, it’s certainly calculating: the Democrats are calculating how many seats they’ll be able to retain. But it’s also hypocritical, in that they want to do something that they believe the voters would oppose. Rather than be open and honest and try to persuade the voters that their ideas are the wiser ones, they’d rather try to take it out of the voters’ considerations.
That’s not what hypocrisy is, Dana. Hypocrisy is when you preach one course of action but take another.
Oh, really? Then just what does the word “Democrat” in “Democrat Party” mean?
First of all, it’s the Democratic Party, your idiocy aside. Second, it was originally called the Democratic Republican Party. Third, you’re still wrong. The action is not hypocritical. It is cowardly. Words have meanings, despite your inability to discern them.
@D “Nate Silver puts the odds of a Republican majority at 65.1%,”
Look again… He’s been back peddling daily. Now at 58%.
PEC now has the Dems odds of success at 81%
http://election.princeton.edu/todays-senate-seat-count-histogram/