Futures Market Hadicapping of the Statewide Races

Filed in National by on July 11, 2014

Imagine you could buy shares of the statewide candidates. After the election winners would pay out $1.00 per share – losing positions would pay zero. So if you buy a share of Kevin Wade, say, for $0.01 (one penny) would you do it? Are “Smooth like Suede’s” chances better than 1%? Is that a good bet?

Anyway, when you have a lot of buyers and sellers with fairly decent knowledge of the markets, the truth appears to emerge from these types of transactions. Futures markets are good predictors of political outcomes. So let’s get it rolling.

These are last night’s closing prices.  Put your buy and sell orders in the comments section and I’ll up this for as long as it remains interesting to me.

Senate: Chris Coons 0.98  – Kevin Wade 0.01  – Carl Smink 0.01

House: John Carney 0.99 – Rose Izzo 0.01

Attorney General: Matt Denn 0.93 – Ted Kittila 0.07

Treasurer: Chip Flowers 0.40 – Sean Barney 0.35 – Ken Simpler 0.15 – Sher Valenzuela 0.10

Auditor: Brenda Mayrack 0.41 -  Ken Matlusky 0.08 – Tom Wagner 0.49

About the Author ()

Jason330 is a deep cover double agent working for the GOP. Don't tell anybody.

Comments (12)

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  1. Cletus says:

    Smooth as Suede, for a penny. Is it ‘shiney new’ ?

  2. Will says:

    Can we get the alternative parties listed too?

  3. John Manifold says:

    Generally a good chart except that Simpler is undervalued. If Chip wins his primary, Simpler wins the general.

  4. Geezer says:

    Can Simpler get votes from the SuxCo Crazies?

  5. Jason330 says:

    I’m selling and John Manifold is buying “Simpler to Win” at 0.15 – It will be booked tonight.

    Will – I was thinking about the Greens. I guess I could be convinced to add them in.

  6. Jason330 says:

    If I was a trader, instead of the house – I might take a flyer on Ted Kittila at 0.07 and maybe buy a few shares of Brenda Mayrack at 0.41.

  7. Will says:

    If I put in a buy order for Andrew Groff, Scott Gesty, and David Chandler can we get them listed?

  8. Jason330 says:

    They are probably all going to open at 0.01

  9. Geezer says:

    That’s way too high, unless the Green is the second candidate in some of those races. In a race with both a D and an R, both would have to drop dead for the Green to win.

  10. .41 on Brenda Mayrack gets my $$’s. Money in my pocket.

    If Barney is really at .035, as opposed to .35, I’d bet big. In fact, I’ll put a few shekels on .35 bet as well.

    I’m buying both.

  11. Will says:

    You can open them wherever you like, my bid stands.

  12. jason330 says:

    Your trades will be booked tonight.

    El Som – thanks. Fixed.

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